Losing voters is a start, but until Hezbollah's military power is broken, Lebanon will have no peace.
We're going to be shocked and horrified when the full extent of what the Russians have and are doing comes out: "The Russians are rounding up civilians, forcing some into labor units
and sending the rest to internment camps in Russia, where they are
hostages to encourage the men in labor units to not resist. They can
always find a few locals willing to work for a new pro-Russian
government. Russians will be encouraged to migrate to “liberated”
Ukraine and occupy the homes and take over businesses left behind by
Ukrainians who fled or were interned for refusing to collaborate. Many
Russians are appalled with these policies and the fact that the rest of
the world sees Russians as 21st century Nazis. Ukrainians
sum this up with some humor, describing the large white “Z” used to
identify Russian vehicles as half of a swastika, as the other half was
stolen by corrupt Russian officials." Yeah:
AstroTurfing dark money-funded "spontaneous" outraged left-wing protests. Via Instapundit.
Professional courtesy from the proto-imperial entity to the faltering imperial entity: "French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a new European Political Community, with support from Germany's Olaf Scholz, that would include Ukraine in a second-tier union. No, this is not about European 'core values' — it's just the latest attempt by the EU's two biggest players to be sure not to upset Vladimir Putin."
The Air Force has a long history of wanting to kill the A-10, so it is no shock that "recently revealed documents show more than half of the A-10s in service aren’t deployable overseas because the Air Force is starving the aging fleet of critical maintenance and upgrades."
Russia's feigned alarm at Sweden and Finland joining NATO should not be believed. They pose no offensive threat to Russia. But their territory and forces will be valuable assets supporting the Baltic ex-Soviet NATO states should Russia invade them.
Never trust the Russians: "With the revelation by Mr. Borisov that the Kh-101 long-range nuclear-capable cruise missiles are carried by Su-30 and Su-34 fighters, every element necessary to establish a serious violation of the New START Treaty is now documented by on the record statements made by the President of Russia and the Russian general who is the spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry in formal press briefings."
Does the dictator protest too much? "Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has urged other members of a Russian-dominated military alliance to stand united." Or has he tied his future to Putin's?
NBC analyst who was in Obama FBI says Trump supporters are like violent jihadis. We know that Leftists don't believe that. Leftists have spent more than two decades excusing jihadi violence (Jihadis struck us on 9/11? "Why do they hate us?" the left asked. Their answer: We provoked them.).
The United States will rotate troops sent to bolster NATO during Russia's rape of Ukraine. At what point is adding troops permanently on the table? Or does REFORPOL make more sense?
American programs to replace Russian-designed weapons in countries who send them to Ukraine is also intended to depress Russian arms sales. Russian military performance will do most of the work for that objective.
Just because Biden chose to needlessly lose the Afghanistan campaign doesn't mean the war is over--or fought more cleanly: "The Taliban have been accused of human rights abuses during clashes with resistance forces in Panjshir province, to the north of Kabul." Fancy that.
U.S. troops are returning to Somalia to help locals kill jihadis. I think that is wise. Jihadis don't kill themselves fast enough to suit me. More good jihadis, please.
The Green Fuck-Up Fairy visited Sri Lanka. They can probably just switch to electric cars and artisanal ancient grains, right?
Problems, instability, and nukes.
More about the Army in Alaska. The units will be under the newly activated 11th Airborne Division and will become an arctic unit, with appropriate equipment. It will join 10th Mountain as an arctic-capable unit. Which I did not know.
So what happened in 2011? "By any definition, Libya is a so-called fragile state and a high-priority challenge for international security. Since 2011, it has been wracked by repeated cycles of internal division and proxy warfare." Remember, the 2011 American-enabled NATO war on Khadaffi was supposed to prove how a drive-by intervention would work. Allegedly the locals would be free to sort things out post-Khadaffi without the allegedly horrible effects of America's presence. This would be superior to the Iraq model of occupying and building a new state in the face of violent opposition. How'd that work out?
Somebody in Syria figured they're working for Ukraine so why not them, too? Actually, it may not have been a serious effort. Unless the effort was seeing if the shooter could get away with trying. I'm sure this will work out swell for the S-300 missile crew.
The answer is "yes". And the threat is broader than just targeting 7th Fleet.
Russia's vassal (for now) Belarus won't be exporting potash, a key fertilizer ingredient. Is it just me or is Russia threatening to starve the world's poor unless the West lets Russia destroy Ukraine?
Russia is taking a shockingly calm stand on Finland and Sweden joining NATO: "Finland and Sweden joining Nato would probably make 'not much difference', according to Russia’s foreign minister." Is this a welcome sign of lucidity in Moscow or a sign that Russia has decided to take action despite being rather busy in Ukraine?
Good: "We will intensify our military co-operation [with Sweden and Finland] especially in the Baltic Sea region and through joint exercises," the German chancellor said. That's useful, unlike occasionally sailing a naval target off the coast of China.
The Turkish problem. Well, it's a problem with Erdogan (and his numerous backers), what has no solution yet it seems.
All is not quiet in Assad's south, the birthplace of the protests that evolved into a multi-war: "In southern Syria (Daraa province) a Syrian intel official was killed by a bomb hidden in his car. There has been a lot of similar violence in Daraa this year, with over 200 attacks leaving over 160 dead and many more wounded."
Russia is abandoning bases in Syria. Why? "Most Russian ground forces in Syria are returning to Russia because of the war in Ukraine, which the Russian are losing. These Russian troops consist of special operations forces, military advisers and tech support personnel who help maintain Russian weapons used by Syria." I assume these are smaller outposts and not the major air and naval bases.
Can Ukraine farm during a war? Clearly the answer is "yes" because the estimate is that Ukraine's crop will be 20-30% lower. Which means 70-80% success. This is still a problem for global supplies when you have to move it overseas without Black Sea ports. But Ukraine can farm and could export to some extent.
Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for teacher unions, which prioritize the union staff above all else, students--and the many good teachers--be damned.
Iran's political deadlock continues. Let's hope ballots settle this rather than bullets. And I hope we continue to help Iraq battle corruption and its partner in crime, Iranian influence.
Russian disinformation wants Ukrainians to believe Zelensky is actually Russian and so not eligible to be president. Ukraine has a far more plausible disinformation campaign against Putin, actually.
Xi Jinping thought the Chinese Communist Party congress would be a coronation. But he has problems. Making mistakes is no way to earn a crown.
Has anybody noticed that our media is far more pro-Ukraine than it has ever been pro-America in our recent wars?
I'm a fan of military war gaming. And this One World Terrain sounds useful. But I'm not going to lie. I worry we'll excel in a virtual world we build around bad models while failing in the real world.
Death to the mullahs: "Hundreds of Iranians have taken to the streets in cities across the country, protesting against the crippling political and economic situation. Unofficial reports say security forces have killed at least four people." Biden is surely working to save the mullahs.
Guam's port capacity will be improved: "The work to be performed includes the renovation and modernization of Berth 2 to provide full capability to support two loaded T-AKE vessels with the proper depth of water, sufficient wharf length, and power and utilities."
Let's hope this isn't a high tech mood ring: "Volunteer soldiers took part in a physical and cognitive stress test study to help researchers build a "soldier dashboard" for commanders to monitor unit performance."
The Air Force-spawned Space Force is reaching for the Moon: "The Space Force today is almost entirely focused on terrestrial operations, Whiting said, 'but as commerce, as NASA as other countries start to go to the moon and beyond, we will have to pivot up and out for those orbital regimes.'" That's great. But once beyond the Earth-Moon system we need a Space Navy.
I remember the claim that some new weapon makes tanks useless as far back as the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The latest claim about drones is similar and has echos of the old debate over aircraft. Question: What holds the line and protects the launch sites for drones? I fully admit that tanks have to evolve to cope with new threats--as they always have done in the face of attack means--to cheaper mass-produced models that prioritize crew survivability.
Our weapons development and production timeline is too long if the Air Force is already looking at a new engine for the F-35.
Preparing to cope with the political violence that Democratic leaders are inciting. because respecting institutions and norms. Tip to Treacher.
I'll refrain from any related word play: "The US Air Force has announced a successful test measured at five times the speed of sound. A B-52 bomber off the coast of California carried out the test." I have limits. Tip to Instapundit.
Japan and Australia extend helping hands to each other. One can only hope that South Korea and Japan could be as cooperative.
The Navy says it needs all it ships to fight China without any to spare for winning in Europe. Why Europeans are too weak to defeat Russia at sea with minimal American help is beyond me. And what about dealing with Iran? Still, it is time we ended our "ten-year rule" assumptions. Although my then-confidence in our Navy's ability to fight China did not survive China's massive shipbuilding surge and our ship-building ineptitude. One of my first publications criticized the "win-hold-win" formulation.
The countries that don't want to be next on Russia's to-take list.
Russia is violating the spirit of the Montreux Convention on the use of the Turkish Straits during war. Which doesn't matter if it doesn't violate the letter of the convention. This is not an issue to get worked up over, given everything else Russia is doing.
I have not forgotten: "It would be easy to forget that the U.S. still has troops in northeastern Syria. Even before the crisis in Ukraine dominated foreign news coverage, their presence hardly made the news. In Syria itself, their presence is barely noticeable. Somehow, though, they seem to be the invisible hand holding a precarious situation together." I'd like to know why our troops might die there.
Release the Kraken! "Russia’s navy later this year will deploy a drone torpedo armed with a megaton-class nuclear warhead capable of destroying entire cities or ports, according to the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command." The Russians are just embarrassing themselves.
Rejecting Canadian oil does seem like a monumentally stupid American policy.
In addition to an expanded NATO after Sweden and Finland enter, "Russia is in the process of getting everything they don’t want out of this war of choice. They have thousands of killed in action and wounded; a sunken flagship at the bottom of the Black Sea; hundreds of millions of rubles lost in military capital stocks, from helicopters to tanks to armored personnel carriers; massive economic sanctions and the shutdown of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with concomitant revenue loss; oligarchs under sanctions; and diplomatic isolation from the western world, representing 70% of the world’s GDP." And Ukraine as a near-NATO country. Strategery.
The Army doesn't want to be left out of Pacific operations. But it never brings up its core competency of large-scale land operations, as I set forth in Military Review.
That seems prudent: "Israel plans to conduct a major military exercise, with some US participation, part of which will simulate attacks on Iranian nuclear targets, according to Israeli officials." That strike with aerial refueling will be just part of a strike mission. Lord knows Western diplomacy isn't going to stop Iran.
Army units in Alaska will be organized under the 11th Airborne Division, with the division's two brigades taken from the 25th Infantry Division that still has a brigade in Hawaii. The 11th will focus on Arctic operations and will be lighter. But what happens to the one-brigade 25th? And will the 11th have a National Guard brigade earmarked to it on mobilization? I assume the Alaska Guard infantry battalion currently under a Hawaii National Guard brigade will now be Alaska-oriented.
Just a reminder that Nina Jankowicz committed "disinformation" when she dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop. Those intelligence and national security professionals actually said the laptop story"has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation[.]" Their wording was carefully chosen to be technically true but easily twisted into a lie--which Jankowicz did. We don't need her "context." Tip to Treacher.
The sound of media crickets. Some lives don't matter to them.
The media averts its eyes when a (D) follows the name: "But a catalog of thousands of the younger Mr. Biden’s emails is now available with a simple click — and best of all, it’s free." Via Instapundit.
Space suit helmets filling up with water? WTF! One astronaut came close to drowning. That won't fuel conspiracy theories that our space program is faked underwater ...
The ancestral home of the Fuck-Up Fairy.
Some solar storms could strike Earth without warning. I worry someone with nukes will think the loss of communications, electricity, and satellite surveillance is evidence they are under nuclear attack. Tip to Instapundit.
Yes, our sea lines of supply could fail as badly as Russia's land supply lines did when it invaded Ukraine: "While Western intelligence officials might get a pass for having overestimated Russia’s capabilities, there is absolutely no excuse for not getting our own logistical house in order in preparation for the grim possibility of a future – some say inevitable – conflict with Russia or China."
Russian hypersonic missiles aren't working that well in Ukraine.
Can't the Navy convert LCS from ASW to anti-ship warfare rather than scrap them? He has a point. I do prefer them forward as a tripwire rather than our destroyers. If the ship engines can be fixed so they don't break down, of course. And if we're using them, couldn't the Marines make use of some?
Why is the government punishing the American people?
Collusion. Via Instapundit.
Russia may let those over 40 enlist: "'For the use of high-precision weapons, the operation of weapons and military equipment, highly professional specialists are needed. Experience shows that they become such by the age of 40–45,' [the state Duma website] said." Please. The goal is infantry cannon fodder.
Russia will deploy their very best bullshit: "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says Moscow will create new military bases in its western regions and form 12 new units and divisions in response to Sweden and Finland's move to join the NATO military alliance." The "new" units will no doubt be formed from existing units and won't represent any additional capabilities.
The Biden administration was assured there'd be no math involved in energy independence efforts. Tip to Instapundit.
People will go hungry if Putin's war on Ukraine goes on much longer. Via Instapundit. Refugees in large numbers will be created. Putin surely counts on that pressure to get Europe to strike a bargain with Russia at Ukraine's expense. All the more reason for Ukraine and its Western backers to defeat Russia quickly. I'd rather see dead Russian soldiers than dead innocent children in poor nations. Question. As we shut down fossil fuel production, are we still using way too much corn--food--to make bio-fuels?
The Wuhan Institute of Virology is at it again. Tip to Instapundit.
Building a high-speed hospital ship.
Consequences: "Poland is prepared to construct new bases to host more NATO forces and other countries along the alliance’s eastern flank ought to follow suit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told security leaders gathered in Warsaw."
I'm confused: "As the Marine Corps assesses how it will operate in the Indo-Pacific, the service needs to figure out how it will perform the reconnaissance mission across a vast region that mostly includes water." [emphasis added] Wouldn't that be the job of the Navy or Air Force?
I always assumed this was a BS crisis: "On World Bee Day, let's set the record straight. It has been seven years since the Washington Post famously dispelled the myth of a catastrophic bee decline in an article titled 'Call off the bee-pocalypse: honeybee colonies just hit a 20-year high.'" Science! The bees are still fine. Via Instapundit.
Punishing Criminals Matters. Via Instapundit.
Pity the Disinformation Governance Board didn't live long enough to kill the myth of the racist Republican "Southern Strategy." Tip to PJ Media.
I'm not sure even this is enough to save the long-delayed system: "Boeing's Starliner space craft docked with the International Space Station for the first time Friday." Via Instapundit.
LOL:
The $40 billion U.S. aid package for Ukraine through the end of September 2022, includes: $6 billion for security assistance, including training, equipment, weapons and support; $8.7 billion to replenish stocks of U.S. equipment sent to Ukraine; $3.9 billion for America's European Command operations; $11 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows Biden to authorize the transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency; $5 billion to address food insecurity globally due to the conflict; $9 billion for an economic support fund for Ukraine; and $900 million to help Ukrainian refugees. Which adds up to about $44 billion.
At this point, it is no big deal for someone to earnestly say 2 + 2 = 5: "A Democrat witness testifying before the House Judiciary Committee on abortion rights Thursday declared that men can get pregnant and have abortions." I don't want to hear another damn thing about the "reality-based community."
Neat. Still, ignoring their text for 50 years doesn't look good, eh? Tip to Instapundit.
The path from Hellfire to Brimstone to Ukraine.
DARPA takes aim at hypersonic missiles. Good.
What concessions will Turkey get to drop opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO?
I was disappointed that Trump didn't try to get a trade pact in the Asia-Pacific region: "President Joe Biden is expected to unveil a list of nations on Monday who will be joining a long anticipated Indo-Pacific trade pact, but Taiwan won't be among them." We'll see if it has any appeal. Hopefully Taiwan will be worked in somehow eventually.
They act as if they don't know, don't care about, and don't even like Americans who can't work from home on a laptop. Tip to Instapundit.
Welp, Australia decided to try a leftist Labor government. The voters there, like voters here, will get what they voted for. Good and hard.
Our shipbuilding problem may be the least of the Navy's problems: "The number of sailors who deserted the Navy more than doubled from 2019 to 2021, while desertions in other military branches dropped or stayed flat, pointing to a potential Navy-wide mental health crisis amid a spate of recent suicides, according to experts and federal statistics obtained by NBC News." There are no bad sailors. Just bad commanders.
The United States and South Korea may expand joint exercises.
