Can Russia salvage its national defense in the wake of the difficulties it is facing in its invasion of Ukraine? Russia's rulers have stupid and self-destructive ideas. Matching Russian defense means to its needs must start with a decision
to stop digging the hole it is excavating in Ukraine, and in the West
generally.
Don't buy the idea that Russia invaded Ukraine because it feared American offensive missiles in Ukraine. I think the invasion is more related to Russia running out of time to build a buffer before Russia has to pivot to face China.
Russia is clearly a regional conventional military power with continents-spanning defense needs. Until Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia created a false image of power.
How can Russia do what it needs after its military image has been
deflated in Ukraine, as NATO is reinvigorated, and as the Chinese threat looms over Russia in both Central Asia and in the Far East?
If Russia hadn't screwed up their assessment of Ukraine's ability and willingness to resist, Russia could have launched a more effective and localized invasion with more achievable goals. I even thought Russia might plan on simply pillaging Ukraine in order to pivot east. I was struggling for a reason for a broad invasion that might make sense in light of Russian conventional military weaknesses.
Instead, Putin prepared for a cake walk on a broad front. And Russia's army is flailing as it tries to recover from that mistake and fight a war that was already committed to the cake walk path. But don't assume Russia is a complete paper tiger:
This war right now—Russia’s poor performance in the early part of the war—has interesting similarities, or at least some parallels, with the winter war of 1939-40, and the Soviet invasion of Finland and the Soviets’ rather poor performance back then. And one of the big concerns I have with additional impressions of the problematic Russian performance is, first, that it’s already clear to me that I’m going to spend the coming years talking about how the Russian military is not four feet tall, either.
That was one reason I started calling this the Winter War of 2022. I brought up the issue of the Soviets initial failures that colored judgment of their military. The Soviets regrouped and pounded Finland with determination but did not overcome the initial impression. Nazi Germany found the Soviet army in 1941 much more resilient than they assumed from watching the 1939-1940 war and thinking the initial failures were all that mattered.
Russia can recover from this public humiliation and build a military able to fight. Russia might yet defeat Ukraine. It would be a costly win. But still a win. Which will dull but not erase the embarrassment of its military prowess. Or Russia could proclaim it has sufficiently punished Ukraine and withdraw, with a nice victory parade in Moscow. And then Russia could pivot east counting on a devastated Ukraine needing a lot of time to recover.
Yet as the war has dragged on and Russian forces have killed civilians and wrecked cities, Putin has severely damaged NATO's ability to forgive Russia and enable that pivot. The longer the war drags on, the worse this problem gets. Russia is in a hole it must escape. It must stop digging and end the war.
Regardless of how Russia ends its war with Ukraine, Russia must reconsider its conventional military. Russia needs to emphasize ground forces and the air power to support them. A surface fleet that is more than a powerful coast guard plus the ability to protect SSBN bastions is a complete waste of Russian resources. And a lot fewer long-range nukes--because Lord knows if many work.
On the bright side for Russia in the east, if China wants to invade Russia the burden will be on China to show it can carry out a large-scale offensive with its untried army and air force. Which is at least what Russia's armed forces were designed to fight:
Gerasimov had designed a modern Russian army under Putin’s leadership based on an active defense concept. This envisaged waging a fighting withdrawal that would bring an enemy deep into Russia to be destroyed, as was done against Napoleon’s and Hitler’s armies.
Let's see if Putin's fantasy world of restoring Russia's empire in the west can be replaced by the real world of defending its empire in the east with a military that matches Russia's needs. If Russia doesn't try to quiet the European front, it might face a two-front war threat from NATO plus Ukraine in the west and China in the east (which could add a third southern front in Central Asia, actually).
NOTE: War updates continue in this post.
