Russia has unambiguously attacked Ukraine. What is Russia's objective?
Russia set the stage by recognizing its puppet governments in the eastern Donbas and ordering troops to openly enter the region:
In a decree recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR), Putin ordered the Russian military to conduct "peacekeeping operations" in the occupied Ukrainian territories.
The big question was whether this was the prelude to taking more of the region still held by Ukraine. Or for a broader attack on Ukraine. The administration said the move was the beginning of an invasion:
Several European leaders said earlier in the day that Russian troops have moved into rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognized their independence — but some indicated it was not yet the long-feared, full-fledged invasion.
Later, the White House signaled a shift in its own position.
“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, principal deputy national security adviser. He said “latest” was important. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”
I don't count Russian troops moving into eastern Donbas--already occupied by Russia--as an "invasion." That ship sailed. Russia invaded in 2014 and simply denied doing it--while we went along with the fiction and accepted it. Now Russia is open about it. As long as the Russians didn't cross with ground or air forces the de facto border--"the point of contact"--I didn't think of this as a new invasion.
But Russian actions, up to evacuating the Russian embassy in Kiev, represented either a decision for war--at some level--or a really serious commitment to bluffing.
Russia has perhaps 125 battalion tactical groups around Ukraine. That must be more than half of Russia's maneuver battalions in the army and airborne forces.
Given that BTGs scrape up useful portions of brigades, Russia can't possibly have much more to sustain an invasion. Heck, some of those deployed BTGs are likely crap.
I still think a major war risks either exposing Russia's army as hollow; or if adequate, of destroying that army in a hard fight with Ukraine. But Ukraine clearly expects military action of some sort given it ordered a 30-day state of emergency. And called up reserves.
Would Russia send in just 40 BTGs for a localized invasion to take all of the Donbas, counting on the rest to provide a rotation base and reserve?
We'll find out because now Russia has clearly started a war in Europe:
In an address Wednesday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he has decided to green light military operations in Ukraine.
What is the scope of attack and Russia's objective?
All of Ukraine in a broad offensive?
"Just" attack the rest of the Donbas?
Attack into Ukraine as a warning and then pull back to hold current Russian-occupied Donbas?
Attack Kiev and install a puppet ruler? Or just threaten to take the capital?
Take Ukraine up to the Dnepr River?
Seize the Black Sea coast of the Sea of Azov to get an overland link to Crimea? Expand that Black Sea effort to the city of Odessa?
Or is fighting--and the broad damage it does--the objective? Followed by the annexation of the Donbas and the bulk of the Sea of Azov, and the permanent stationing of Russian troops in Belarus?
But it is war of some sort.
Ukraine needs to do two things. First, preserve their army as a fighting force. Second, kill Russian troops. This is the more basic core of my advice in 2014:
If Putin does escalate to openly waged warfare against Ukraine to take eastern Ukraine, Ukraine needs to do three things: preserve the Ukrainian army; wage irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine to stress Russia's still-inadequate ground forces; and strike Sevastopol.
The latter two above are all about killing Russians. So I've simplified the advice. Even earlier advice noted in that post for how Ukraine can resist invasion is still valid. And there is less pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine now.
Putin wants the world to pay attention to Russia? Give it to him.
Economic and financial sanctions on top of aid to Ukraine to fight
Russia. America and NATO need to sustain Ukraine's military with logistics and intelligence; and help it send body bags back to Russian mothers.
It doesn't matter that I feel sorry for Russians who live under a ruler determined to take Russia on a flaming viking funeral ride to potential destruction. Russian soldiers in large numbers need to die in the war that Putin has unleashed. Nothing else will work to discourage Russia from moving west every chance it gets until it reaches NATO and starts grabbing territory to start a general war in Europe.
Russia has a plan of action. But everyone has a plan for fighting until they get punched in the face.
Or maybe the people and oligarchs will band together to protect their wealth and lives by stringing Putin up by his heels from a lamp post like the strutting Mussolini he is.
I'm hoping for that salvation. Otherwise, we are in sight of the lights going out all over Europe once again. To the benefit of China.
God help us all.
And to Ukrainians, good hunting. If the West has any honor, Ukraine will not be short of the means to kill Russians.
UPDATE: More details on Putin's announcement and related news.
UPDATE: Apparently, per a television news stream, Putin says operations are restricted to the "Donbas region." Does that include Mariupol and Kharkov? A land corridor to Crimea?
UPDATE: Per television news stream, Russians firing on Odessa, Mariupol, and Kharkov, with ground attacks expected at day break.
UPDATE: Could Odessa be a feint? It seems a bridge too far. I guess morning will clear up the scope of the opening assaults.
