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Sunday, April 11, 2021

Weekend Data Dump

Has Libya hit rock bottom yet? 

If you wonder why Britain decided to increase its nuclear arsenal. Will America back our European NATO allies under that Russian threat? I assume the French will follow suit in keeping their nuclear deterrent intact. And I'd bet the Turks are thinking hard about nukes.

Science!?

It does seem as if Democrats thrive on racial divisions. Everything is awful, they say. Worse than ever, they insist. Worse notwithstanding the need to identify "dog whistles" and "microaggressions", as well as a number of hoax hate crimes. Which to normal people would indicate that the demand for hate crimes by leftists greatly exceeds the supply. And in a shocking display of historical and global ignorance, they also claim it is a uniquely American sin. Those attacks on America are all lies. Yet that's the Democratic line of attack. It's really quite evil.

Defunding the police = enabling violent criminals.

The Capitol Police force is "struggling?" Seriously? They have extensive financing and manpower for policing duties in a very small area. Sure, it is important. But they also have back up from federal civilian and military assets in emergencies. Note that even the reporter admits this fact: "The roughly 2,000 officers are responsible solely for protecting Congress — its members, visitors and facilities, an area of about 16 acres." The city of Ann Arbor, of over 100,000 people, has fewer than 130 police officers. You can add in nearly 60 police officers that police the University of Michigan campus. Yet the Capitol Police are struggling to protect their Congressional "citizenry?" Now that's malarkey.

The Mozambique military says it has regained control of Palma, which had been under assault by jihadis. The military says it inflicted significant casualties on the jihadis. Which implies that the jihadis stood and fought. Which was premature, I imagine. But take the opportunity to kill them when they present themselves.

Why has there been no "domino effect" within the European Union three months after Brexit was finalized? Really, the argument is that " full-fat euroscepticism seems to have quietened in mainland Europe" Why? Well, three months. And even powerful Britain was punished for five years by the EU for deciding to leave the EU. And Europe is in the middle of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. So there are reasons. We'll see if dominos fall once things settle down in Britain and Europe. Honestly, small and weak states probably can't safely exit the EU. Escape may be more likely not by exit but by collapse of the EU proto-empire and a return to a EEC free-trade zone.

Hahahaha! After years telling us the Armata tank was going to be Russia's tank of choice to dominate enemies, Russia has a "secret" new tank. Burlak will be much cheaper yet almost as good as the Armata! I never worried about Armata. Burlak is based on the T-80 chassis, which didn't work out for the Russians, I thought. So this "secret" is old news. But this tank, for sure! Comedy Gold, I tell you! Gold!

Representative Gaetz is not a hill I'll die on. Let him defend himself. An appearance of sleaziness is not the same as guilt of a crime. But any defense should is based on a defense of rule of law hill and not of him personally. Let his constituents decide his fate if he is innocent. He represents them and not me, after all.

The deployment of the National Guard quick reaction force over the killing of a Capitol police officer was an overreaction done simply because the force exists. There is no way that the incident that left the attacker and officer dead required a military response. 

American forces spent time the last couple months in the Maldives training local security forces. It is good to preempt any Chinese effort to gain a foothold there.

With the economy adding jobs at this pace, why do we need multi-trillion dollar spending acts to "stimulate" the economy? Middle class people will be devastated when this kind of spending triggers inflation.

Brave words from Manila in the face of Chinese subliminal conquests of Philippines territory are nice. Certainly China could win any major war with the Philippines. But the Philippines needs to fight a tiny war to quickly secure their Whitsun Reef territory that China won't risk escalating and drawing in America and allies. Or find another way.

Trump seems to be shifting his branding from "Trump" to "45", as in the 45th president. Please God, let him buy Colt 45.

60 Minutes is another brand that has forfeited trust in it decades ago.

Why didn't anybody tell me that "for the children" is no longer the all-purpose reason to do something the left wants to do?

I'm not convinced by data analysis that there was fraud. But yeah, if it happened the majority of it would be found in a minority of places. That's why I mentioned "decisive" fraud as opposed to "widespread" fraud as the potential problem. Now, maybe data analysis can lead to actual evidence. But I haven't seen that. Tip to Instapundit.

I do worry that the stock market is way over-valued and will correct. It's like stocks and housing are the only place to put investment money and that drives up prices as money chases too little opportunity. But I'm no expert. I'm much closer to drawing retirement income. So I'm not as nonchalant about corrections as I was when younger. And my youngest is in need of college investments now. Both funds are now in way more conservative investments so hopefully they are shielded from the worst of a correction. Or maybe I get lucky and the correction doesn't take place until after my child graduates. Still, nervous times.

Maybe Pakistan, Iran, India, China, and Central Asian countries will prevent the Taliban from taking control of Afghanistan. But will any of them sacrifice to prevent jihadis from getting safe haven if they promise not to mess with any of them? We created friends and allies in Afghanistan willing to kill jihadis for us and allow us to kill jihadis directly. Why would we risk that by just walking away? Our allies need the advisors, logistics support, and air support to compete with fanatical killers. I mean, 20 years ago nobody seemed to care that al Qaeda was under the protection of the Taliban government. Why is today different? And even if the Taliban are unable to take over all of Afghanistan, they could hold a portion of the country and provide havens for international jihadis. Will non-Taliban Afghans bleed for us to fight to control that territory if we walk away? I doubt it.

The frightened CEOs just wrongly think the alligator won't eat them if they say the approved words. Honestly, the CEOs won't even be last to be eaten if the woke gain real power to compel rather than to frighten.

Earth politicians won't be satisfied until they drive every major corporation into space, will they?  Tip to Instapundit.

The Coast Guard is helping the Navy in Europe and the Middle East.

What kind of Navy do we want? "Today, as we experience the digitized second wave of globalization, a virtual explosion of advocacy is resurrecting Mahan’s arguments. These new seapower evangelists, however, miss the point. The question is not whether to have a global navy, but what it should look like." Yes. Unfortunately we keep having carrier debates when we should be having seapower debates.

Ah, "Republicans pounce." The issue isn't that 60 Minutes inflicted yet another fact-free partisan media hit piece on Governor DeSantis. It's that Republicans are continuing to point out the facts and media bias. Still, that story means we can look forward to lots of media stories linking political contributions to Biden decisions, right?

With the administration thinking about raising corporate tax rates dramatically, companies should worry that a concurrent administration option to finish the southern border wall is intended to keep the companies in America.

Biden is already holding seven times more migrant children that Trump did at the peak back then. The sound of crickets from the left is deafening. Instead of "kids in cages" children are now embraced by Biden's arms shooting out from the Lincoln Memorial "in government care." 

China's subliminal war to take the South China Sea. The"Julian Felipe Reef" is apparently the "Whitsun Reef" I've mentioned.

Can Lebanon's army hold the country together? No. Unless it has become far more resilient than it has been. It has been a longstanding hope that Lebanon's army can hold the country together. But it has always collapsed or shrank from asserting itself when put under sectarian pressure. And it has not in fact held the country together given Hezbollah's Iran-funded state-within-a-state that is sovereign in southern Lebanon. The only way to answer that question with a yes is for Israel to crush Hezbollah and empower UNIFIL to actually fill the vacuum. And then only if the act of crushing Hezbollah isn't the kind of sectarian pressure that will collapse the army again.

I don't see Britain's global strategy as one patterned on America's. It is a throwback to traditional British offshore strategy interrupted by the 20th century's continental fights against the Germans and Soviets.

An American carrier was ordered to operate in the South China Sea. Biden is defending freedom of navigation more than I expected.

Stop panicking about the F-35!

Belarus. Where geopolitics and human rights clash. It is interesting that the nearby democracies are seemingly far less concerned than I am about provoking a Russian advance to the Suwalki Gap. Perhaps I'm too cautious. Although Belarus is indeed the front line of the Suwalki Gap. Or perhaps I'm right to worry that small allies can drag America into a needless war. Hard to say.

A verified troll. Talk about colluding with enemies. Or at least setting up a system that allows enemies easy access.

North Korea's Kim admits his country is royally effed. I imagine the peasants will be squeezed even harder to keep the elites in big screen televisions.

I hear Central American migrants are paying $6,000 to get across the southern border. How do these impoverished people afford that? Is it wrong? Are others paying it? Is the bulk of the payment actually made after the crossing with those at home held hostage for payment? Or are the migrants the ones held hostage for those who remain at home to pay?

I know I always say to check the definitions section when you read something. But Democrats are getting ridiculous. "Kids in cages" aren't that. "Bipartisan" legislation doesn't need any Republican votes. And "infrastructure" includes any government spending on anything. Don't get me started on their gender obfuscation.

The southern border crisis reminds us that according to the left, when Republicans do something wrong it is a Republican problem. When Democrats do something wrong it is a problem with America.

It is almost amusing that the West is focused on punishing Syria for using chemical weapons against its people when Assad used conventional means to kill hundreds of thousands more and expel millions.

Of course Russia and Pakistan are getting closer. They deserve each other. Russia should get any money for weapons up front. But seriously, this relationship does make the Coalition presence in Afghanistan more vulnerable to being cut off. I'd be happier if Iran wasn't run by nutball mullahs.

Egypt seems to be leaning forward on military force to prevent Ethiopia from limiting Egypt's Nile River water: "Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said in televised comments that 'all options are open' should Egypt’s share be 'touched.' He urged Addis Ababa to cooperate with Cairo and Khartoum to avert sliding into conflict." Would Egypt directly attack the GERD Nile River dam? Would Sudan host Egyptian strike aircraft? Or would Egypt support Tigray separatists to pressure Ethiopia to offer concessions on water flow? Something else?

Lunatic leftists need to do better than Jordan Peterson as the target for their 2-minute hates now that Trump is gone. Tip to Instapundit.

Apparently, a lot of Democrats have been beaten by the Stupid Bat.

Iran smiles. Hey, Iran's finances can use some interim assistance by propping up Iran's friends before Biden lifts sanctions.

Depending on the angle of viewing, it might be an "L" or a "7". Tip to Instapundit.

What if China launches a surprise attack on American forces in the western Pacific? Well, that's why I want defense in depth to survive the onslaught, gather reinforcements, and then move to decisively engage. But I don't get this from the author at all: "Most of [America's] considerable combat power is stationed in Europe and the Middle East ...." Huh? Most of our military forces are in the continental United States. Little is in Europe or the Middle East, except for naval power in the Middle East. And those naval forces can be shifted to combat China quickly.

China copies Western anti-tank missiles.

I'm not prepared to say that lockdown governors caused their spikes. This issue is well outside my lane. But it seems fair to say "while the blue state governors aren’t necessarily to blame for the surges their states are experiencing, it’s clear that the economically and personally disruptive measures did not have the expected impact." Tip to Instapundit.

Duterte to America: Perhaps we've been hasty. American access to bases in the Philippines would be crucial to extend American logistics all the way to the South China Sea.

The multi-war in Syria continues, but with "only" a hundred dead per week.

Sixteen years ago China made it clear it was getting ready and set to go to Taiwan and compel the Taiwanese to join China by force.  With the legal justification readied and sixteen years of getting their military set, are the Chinese on the cusp of going?

Back in the Obama administration the State Department said Russia violated the Open Skies Treaty--among other agreements. Today the department isn't eager to reactivate that treaty because it is “frankly concerned that agreeing to rejoin a treaty that Russia continues to violate would send the wrong message to Russia and undermine our position on the broader arms control agenda.”

Taiwan's foreign minister would not bow to Chinese pressure as its military exercises around Taiwan: “We are willing to defend ourselves without any questions and we will fight the war if we need to fight the war. And if we need to defend ourselves to the very last day we will defend ourselves to the very last day.” Good. China needs to know it will pay a price to invade and that America will have time to decisively intervene with allies. And remember, those Chinese ships, including a carrier, east of Taiwan will be vulnerable to missiles from Taiwan and missiles from allies at sea. Any PLAN assets east of the island might just be in a kill sack.

When the Soviets thought about giving nukes to Fidel Castro. Well, Castro did seem willing to take a nuclear spear for the communist team. But shorter-range missiles in Cuba wouldn't have the range to destroy America's nuclear forces on the ground. Although obviously in time that could change if America had accepted such a thing. But the Soviets had too much worry that Castro was too eager to use nukes and would invite American nuclear retaliation on the USSR.

The Biden administration gives ground to Iran on sanctions. Shocking, I know. Before this is over Biden might just give Iran Minuteman III nuclear missiles and proclaim that he succeeded in ending Iran's drive for nuclear weapons. And Iran will insist on--and get--more pallets of cash to agree to that. It's deja nuke all over again. Have a super sparkly day.

Well that's not an alarming indication of Chinese method at all, eh? I hope the Taiwanese do a better job of dealing with such a thing than Canada does.

To be fair, enemies naturally want to sow division in America. Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy says the Burke-class destroyer is too small for future sea control missions. But the already-designed Zumwalt is too big? Really? That's the reason to design a new Goldilocks ship that's just right? Why not resume construction of Zumwalt? Is it really a matter of accounting to just use the technology already paid for on a "new" ship project?

Japan needs more offensive firepower. China works to make sure nobody can approach China without running a gauntlet. Why shouldn't China's foes do the same thing? 

The Russians accuse Ukraine of being "provocative" for not accepting Russia's 2014 conquest of Crimea and the eastern Donbas. Said a Kremlin spokesman, "Dude, it's been like 7 years." Well, it might as well have been that. I'm wildly paraphrasing, of course. But just as fanciful is Russia's claim that if it wanted to Russia could end Ukraine's existence as a country. Yet Russia sure is massing a lot of troops for just political pressure. The troops aren't enough to conquer Ukraine. But are they enough to take all of the Donbas? Or even create an overland bridge to Crimea along the Sea of Azov coast?

Say, when did Trump become the leader of the EU? "Just when it appeared as if Europe’s much-criticized COVID vaccination rollout might finally be getting on track, new cases of the virus have skyrocketed, curfews and lockdowns have been reinstated and questions about the safety of some vaccines have led to an atmosphere of restive uncertainty across the continent." Because I've been led to believe that sophisticated and--dare I say it--nuanced Europeans were much better than Trump throughout 2020.

Well that's a lot of participation in a military exercise designed to remind Turkey to back off.

The British want more firepower for their new Boxer armored personnel carriers.

I think Biden's dream is unachievable and unaffordable. But to be fair to whoever wrote what Biden said, the time factor no doubt is defined as city center to city center. Which gives trains an advantage over air travel that must include security and travel to and from the airports. The time factor may still be unachievable with that caveat, but I'm not going to try to do the math.

Huh: "Russia is planning to deploy a nuclear-powered missile to the Arctic next summer that's designed to detonate off the coastlines of enemy countries, CNN reported." I'll ask again. Why? I mean, what's the point if Russia has so many long-range nuclear missiles? This weapon seems either stupid or unwittingly revealing.

Well, the Chinese would shoot down any Taiwanese drone nosing around Chinese territory: "Taiwan has spotted Chinese drones circling the Taipei-controlled Pratas Islands in the South China Sea and may shoot them down if they stray too close, a government minister said on Wednesday, a move that could dramatically increase tensions with Beijing." And what would China do if Taiwan shot down a drone? Threaten to invade Taiwan and crush their democracy? "Increase tensions", indeed.

So the Hunter Biden laptop really is his laptop. I wonder how many other stories the media buried, slanted, or hyped to hurt Trump before the election will be brought to light?

The X-37B is still being apparently amazing. Now it is testing how to beam solar energy to Earth.

3D printing the way to space.

Drug-smuggling subs come to Europe

I don't know if the Taliban in Afghanistan can be defeated as long as their tribal brethren in Pakistan support them. But I do know that peace with the Taliban is not possible. The Taliban only want the peace of victory. I did not make a secret out of my opposition to Trump's plan to leave Afghanistan. I want to support our allies who kill jihadis and prevent the territory from being a safe haven to attack America. I will salute Biden if he continues that. But if he thinks that extending our presence just to make one more key concession to convince the Taliban to participate in the system rather than achieve total victory, that will be a bigger mistake.

Like other people, the Chinese communists sometimes learn from history and sometimes fail to learn from history. Let's settle this by admitting that the Chinese don't have any special genetic ability for long-range planning.

Twitter is awful and deserves to wither and die.

China hits a speed bump on its drive to establish itself in Greenland. China is not an Arctic state and should not be allowed to leverage their ridiculous claims into a place at the negotiating table.

African Americans and a broader civil rights movement helped to overcome a violent "Jim Crow" system of racially based repression. To cavalierly use that term for legislation that has absolutely nothing--as in zero--in common with that hateful system is a disservice to the current debate and a crime against the sacrifices of those who actually dismantled real Jim Crow laws. Shame on Biden and his allies for doing this. And shame on the media for letting this huge lie stand.

America is an awful racist place according to the left. But New York is giving illegal immigrants $15,000. How long before the federal government says "Hold my beer" and define illegal immigrants as "infrastructure?" Honestly, Democrats seem determined to make people who follow the rules just look like suckers.

Well just don't use Times New Nazi, okay?

Thank God Trump isn't the leader of Germany! Otherwise the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic would be out of control there: "Germany has faced high Covid infection rates since last October and, despite an improvement in the month of February, the number of new cases has been rising since late March."

Hopefully, America is prepared to rush Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine if the Russians strike at Ukraine again. Face it, body bags of Russian soldiers going back to their mothers is the only way to stop Putin.

A PLA Navy warship harassed a boat chartered by Filipino media in the South China Sea. This may fit with my information war suggestion.

Why on Earth would Russia need to reinforce its Black Sea fleet to intimidate the weak Ukrainian navy? "The Russian Navy is sending 10 vessels, a mixture of landing craft and small gunboats, from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea." The United States may send warships into the Black Sea as a show of support for Ukraine.

I had a long history of mistrusting and despising Trump before 2016. So you know the Democrats have been really awful to make me nod in agreement with this:

The Army wants to replace its TOW anti-tank missiles with missiles that have a range of 10,000 meters. Which is interesting because lines of sight just don't exist in many places for that kind of long-range direct fire shot. Heck, half the range exceeds usual line of sights. It has to be intended for basically indirect fire as if it is artillery, doesn't it? And bingo! "The Army also wants troops to be able to lock the new missile on target before and, if necessary, after launching, he said. It should also be maneuverable so it can go after enemy vehicles hiding behind cover."

The Chinese communist bastards will not allow an honest investigation into the origins of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic that began in Wuhan, China

Oh Hell, this is our reality isn't it?

Good point. But they didn't have social media back then to nurture grievances, did they? Yes, the article is a few years old. And you can see how we dealt with our tribal divisions with social media, eh? Social media doesn't allow us all to just be Americans. Which is a damn shame.

This is unusual. Usually the media people working for the other side don't have a formal relationship. Tip to Instapundit.

BACN on the battlefield.

Okay, one more. Sigh:

South Korea can now design its own fighter aircraft. As North Korea weakens, South Korean defense horizons expand from the DMZ. So China squirms. But at some level I worry that if China conquers South Korea it would have access to that technology and manufacturing. 

Social media and regular media mostly just reinforce the feelings and political views of those who consume them. How long before people choose companies that just directly taps our brains to reinforce our chosen thinking and whatever feeling we want to have at that moment?

While the author has a point, America can't do much if the Philippines won't act against China's subliminal conquest. We'll see if the high-level U.S.-Philippines discussion changes that basic fact.

Gun violence declined since the 1990s despite huge increases in private gun ownership. But a year of defunding the police has led murders to skyrocket in cities. Naturally Democrats want to focus on limiting gun purchases by law-abiding people. When if they were serious about keeping guns out of criminals' hands Democrats could give priority to prosecuting those illegally trying to purchase firearms. Tip to Instapundit.

The assault on the military's honor. If troops are considered guilty until proven innocent because of a few extremists in a limited universe of those considered "extremist", who will defend America?

This article is BS. Iran loved the 2015 nuclear deal--it was just awful for America--and Iran can therefore easily be brought back in. Especially since the Biden administration stupidly signaled its desperation for a deal. And Trump's cancellation raised US-Iran tensions to "historic heights?" Really? Higher than the hostage crisis? Higher than the tanker war during the Iran-Iraq War when American and Iranian forces actually fought each other? Higher than in 2015 when Iran seized our navy patrol boats and their crews? Higher than Iran's plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to America in a WDC restaurant with a bomb? Higher than when Iran helped kill hundreds of America troops in Iraq with explosively formed penetrator IEDs? Seriously? This period is historic for tensions? And why would Iran raise tensions when the deal was in effect given that it shielded Iran's path to nuclear weapons? That was a false calm. How can explanatory analysis be that bad?

"Letting" states and localities take the lead on formulating pandemic responses that fit their situations was a good call by Trump. This is a big country. One policy imposed from above wouldn't make sense even if consistent with our system.

Woooo! The COVID-19 Xi Jinping Flu pandemic is officially over, according to the CDC: "What we know is this: racism is a serious public health threat that directly affects the well-being of millions of Americans."

Some Iranians recognize that corruption is part of the problem that is building popular rage against the mullah-run government. And that if nothing is done to resolve that, the next round of unrest will be more violent. Which will require more violence to suppress. Which might threaten the mullah state. And funny enough for the people who wrongly insist we won nothing in Iraq, the downfall of Saddam as well as the war on Sunni Islamist terror helped give Iranians hope for something better. The ripples from those events continue. The people of Iran may yet solve the mullah nuclear weapons problem.

Tell me you can't totally see the proposed American aid being diverted by corruption and ending up paying coyotes to smuggle Central Americans into America. But the price coyotes charge will skyrocket because of the $1 billion per year going to the region.

Michigan's changes to signature validation for absentee ballots in the 2020 election was made without statutory authorization for the change and did not follow the process for changing rules under statutes that allow administrative rules. Note that the limits on what the executive can do when authorized to promulgate rules are very weak. There was a time when the state legislature's oversight of executive rules was quite strong. It was glorious to sit in JCAR meetings and watch executive officials live in fear of having rules rejected. Opponents of JCAR claimed the body was irrelevant because it rejected so few proposed rules. That ignored the reality that the executive would almost always withdraw proposed rules to address concerns brought up in that oversight body. But worries about a "legislative veto" led the Republicans to weaken the legislative role prematurely. I was horrified that Republicans who controlled the legislature and governor's office couldn't foresee the day when they would not be in charge. I had to keep my views to myself and eventually I had to drop the history of strong legislative oversight from legislator briefing materials lest it seem like I was taking a position. Let's see if that ruling holds up. I imagine it will. Although I'm no lawyer, so my view is based on the big picture rather than any skill at analyzing the facts of the case. Which will be decisive, of course.

The supply of racial hate exceeds the demand. Sadly, the race arsonist college administrators insist the hoax was "fake but accurate." Tip to Instapundit.

A moderate facade concealing radical nonsense. Tip to Instapundit.

I suppose it might be coincidence: " Iran's underground Natanz nuclear facility lost power Sunday just hours after starting up new advanced centrifuges capable of enriching uranium faster, the latest incident to strike the site amid negotiations over the tattered atomic accord with world powers." I'm glad somebody isn't counting on the good will and honesty of deranged mullahs to keep them from getting nukes.

If vegans think cheese is so bad, why do they call their version "vegan cheese?" Why not "proteingumssolidsandfats" bars? Nobody shapes bacon into broccoli analogues. It's a free country, of course. I'm just sometimes flummoxed by the way freedoms are exercised. Just don't stop me from enjoying freedom.

I've said that at some level I understand conservatives who opposed Trump. What I couldn't--and can't--understand is how conservatives could have supported Biden as the alternative. And so far I don't see these people as defending true conservatism. I see them as just defecting to the other side. Tip to Instapundit.

Well, China and Russia might coordinate offensives on Taiwan and Ukraine, I suppose. But America would absolutely adopt a China First policy. There would be minimal American reinforcement of Europe where we'd basically send arms and supplies to Ukraine to fight Russia. European NATO states should be enough to provide the bulk of combat forces if it goes that far. Given that, would China really want to be a shield for Russia's aggression when I don't think China wants Russia as a friend for longer than it takes to make Russia an enemy occupying historic Chinese territory.