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Monday, September 17, 2012

Benghazi is Getting Complicated

The Libyans have fingered al-Qaida in the Maghreb as tied to the Benghazi consulate attack. Will this finally trigger a Western intervention in Mali to wipe out that growing sanctuary for jihadis in northern Mali?

This is what the Libyans say:

The president of Libya's parliament, Mohamed al-Magariaf, has said military action is being considered against militants blamed for the killing of the US ambassador Chris Stevens.

Magariaf also confirmed reports from Washington that US officials intercepted communications discussing the planned attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, which he said linked al-Qaida in the Maghreb to an Islamist brigade, Ansar al-Sharia. "Yes, that happened," he said.

Magariaf said the intercepts matched other evidence indicating members of the brigade took part in Tuesday's all-night assault on the compound and an accommodation site. "It seems there is a division within Ansar al-Sharia about this attack, some for participation, some against," he said. "We are in the process of investigation."
I've been waiting for a French-led (with a quieter American assist) intervention to restore government control in northern Mali. France views this as their sphere of influence and local African governments don't want secession or coups to stand as an example for them. Further, we and the local Africans share a goal of not letting jihadis gain a secure foothold in the region.

The Benghazi killings of our people by jihadis linked to the Mali-based group could very well lead us to increase our visibility and level of force.

If the French send a Foreign Legion regiment, we might send a battalion-sized task force of one of our Stryker brigades to assist. Or perhaps a Marine Expeditionary Unit airlifted deep inland, I suppose, since we'd have one in the CENTCOM area. Although the Marines are eager to pivot to the Pacific and avoid tasks like this away from the sea.

Plus special forces and aircraft, of course. And cruise missiles as needed.

This is getting complicated. Leading from behind sounds better than the reality.

UPDATE: As I think about it, I imagine we wouldn't want to use a MEU from CENTCOM if we want to use Marines. We might need the CENTCOM Marines for duty in the Strait of Hormuz. That might cement regional cooperation, no? It would be easier to send East Coast Marines from the United States, too.

UPDATE: You know, I have some sympathy for the Tuaregs of northern Mali who rebelled against a distant government that no doubt screwed them over as a matter of policy. But the Tuaregs effed up by linking up with jihadis who have now gained the upper hand in the north. If the Tuaregs were just a secessionist group, we'd have no interest in reversing their success.

But the Tuaregs have let jihadis into their midst. And those jihadis have killed four Americans.

Unless we have special forces inside northern Mali and manage to spark a Tuareg Awakening to cleanse northern Mali of jihadis, we have a lot of interest in putting Mali back in charge of the north.