Russia is in a slow race against time as its aerial onslaught and ground forces kill Ukrainians and press into Ukraine. But the ability to sustain that pressure is getting shakier after 3-1/2 years of war.
Russia is attacking along a wide front in Ukraine, slowly clawing forward despite heavy losses:
Russia’s aims are not simply territorial. Analysts say it wants to methodically destroy the Ukrainian military, as Moscow slowly advances its own troops. The biggest challenge for Moscow may be far from the front lines, as the Russian economy can no longer keep pace with escalating military spending.
The article questions whether Ukraine will still be armed by America. But I have few worries about that. Ways will be found and Europe is slowly (too slowly) building the capacity to replace American weapons and ammunition.
It is taking time, but the trend toward a war of attrition clear early in the war is recognized:
Russia may well be able to grind down Ukraine. That was my view before the war--a partial and ugly win by a Russian military not nearly as good as Russian propaganda portrayed--that left most of Ukraine independent. I was right that the war would be neither short nor glorious for Russia.
The question now is amazingly whether Russia wins. Russia initially performed worse than even I suspected and the West has armed and supported Ukraine more than I hoped. Russia could find itself the victim of that process.
And until we see one side ground down and breaking, we may not be able to predict it.
Remember, too, as I addressed in my post quoted above, Russia's greater population does not mean it can out-kill Ukraine's military. Especially as the far greater Western GDP is mobilized to help smaller Ukraine build the means to fight. Three years after I wrote that, the war rages and I still don't know who is more vulnerable to breaking. Putin may be thinking of doubling down on his superior population:
Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov introduced a bill to the Russian State Duma on July 22 that would change the Russian military conscription administrative process to a year-round cycle, as opposed to the current system, which only processes conscripts during Russia’s semi-annual spring and fall cycles.
The question for me is whether using that greater efficiency to put more men into the meat grinder will repair the cracks or deepen the fissures.
UPDATE (Monday): Huh:
President Trump said Monday he will move up the deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his invasion of Ukraine from its original 50 days — one day after telling The Post’s Miranda Devine “there’s no reason to wait that long.”
Why was the deadline advanced? Is something ready earlier than expected? Tip to Instapundit.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
