Just as the 2006 Hezbollah War began with a war on jihadis in Gaza, the war Hamas began with its murder, rape, and kidnapping invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023 has become a Hezbollah War.
The major military operations of the Last Hamas War are seemingly in the past. Securing the win is the problem. Can Israel teach Gazans to elect good leaders and appreciate what that can do for them?
Since Monday when I last updated my previous post covering the war, the signs of an Israeli invasion have multiplied:
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. The IDF said that ground forces will operate to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in villages along the Israel-Lebanon border. The IDF said that Hezbollah infrastructure in these villages represents an “immediate and real” threat to Israeli communities in the north. Israeli military and political officials formally approved the ”next steps” of Israel’s operation in Lebanon on September 30. The IDF said it will act to achieve its stated war aim of returning the residents of the north to their homes.
To me, the reports of Israeli small-scale operations over the last week are recon; and the more overt crossings reported yesterday are units marking lanes across the border. They're essentially creating bridgeheads with any obstacles or mines cleared in order to pass the invasion force through.
As we watch Israel wage serious war on Hezbollah, let's recall the last time they fought on 2006:
His research convincingly argues that the Israeli reliance on poorly understood and controversial Effects-Based Operations (EBO) and Systemic Operational Design (SOD) warfighting theories, and a nearly singular dependence on air power, were root causes of Israeli problems. Additionally, after years of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in the Gaza Strip and West Bank territories, IDF ground forces were tactically unprepared and untrained to fight against a determined Hezbollah force that conducted what was, in many ways, a conventional, fixed-position defense.
Hopefully the Israelis have fixed those deficiencies. I've long suspected Israel would need to go deep in a multi-division and lengthy raid into Lebanon to dig out the entrenched Hezbollah presence in Lebanon:
I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.
Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.
Do that and perhaps Lebanon will have a chance to eliminate Iran's influence through Hezbollah which has crippled their once-prosperous country.
Even as this phase of Israel's wars against its enemies continues, I have to wonder if Israel's resolve extends to taking down the Gordian Knot that makes Israel's problems so much worse.
UPDATE: Iran may get involved:
Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Israel had not identified any launches from Iran as of Tuesday afternoon. Iran’s state media has not suggested an attack is imminent, and Iranian officials could not be immediately reached for comment.
To be fair, Iran isn't saying it would strike. This may just be Israel brushing Iran back from the plate.
Or heck, I can't rule out that Israel's apparent intent to invade Lebanon to get at Hezbollah is bait in order to get an excuse to hit Iran's nuclear infrastructure. That won't solve the Iran problem. But it buys time.
UPDATE: FLASH OVERRIDE: Israel just got a license to ef Iran up:
Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Israel, causing sirens to sound all over the country, the Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday.
Although at some level I worry Iran wouldn't have done this without already having nukes.
And where were American forces? Did we try to shoot down any of Iran's barrage?
UPDATE: Whatever else, the Hezbollah front will be the priority, it seems:
Israel's military has mobilized four more reserve brigades after the launch of its ground offensive against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
Although this was before the barrage from Iran. Maybe Israel knocks out Kharg Island oil export facilities instead of going all the way to the nukes.
UPDATE: I have to imagine Russia isn't happy with Iran's action given that Iran will hardly be shipping missiles and drones to Russia to attack Ukraine when Iran is facing off against Israel.
And while Hezbollah is next up on the to-do list, Israel already showed restraint in the first Iranian attack. I don't know if Israel is in any mood to be restrained in responding to Iran's strikes.
UPDATE: American forces are helping defend Israel, based on TV reporting.
UPDATE: Israel has interesting factors pulling them in different directions:
--Israel decided to focus on Hezbollah. So hitting Iran too much risks diverting themselves from the main effort.
--America doesn't want Israel to match Iran's escalation. Especially in an election year. No president wants a war starting prior to an election.
--Israel must hit something important inside Iran after restraining itself after Iran's spring barrage.
--Israel needs American help to fight Iranian barrages. Was limited American help a warning by America to Israel not to do too much against Iran? Or is it just the fog of war reporting and we don't know what America did?
--And given American wishes, Israel may be able to leverage relative restraint against Iran to gain American acceptance of deep Israeli ground force operations inside Lebanon. And the supply of munitions to maintain that fight.
So we'll see which way Israel goes.
UPDATE: Israel's ground actions inside Lebanon are characterized as "sporadic raids." And if so, this is really a thickening of what has gone on for months without much notice.
But that seems to be changing:
The Israeli military said on Wednesday that regular infantry and armoured units were joining ground operations in southern Lebanon, but said they would remain limited and localised in scope.
To me, it sounds like units are crossing those speculated lanes the earlier "raids" established across the border. And then they would likely deploy in preparation for the drive north.
Let me add that America denied that Iran provided advanced notice of the attack. While that rumor could have provided evidence of too-close U.S.-Iran ties, the rumor could also cause friction between Hezbollah and Iran. Would Hezbollah really be fine thinking it is being thrown under the bus by Iran which could be seen as going through the motions of supporting Hezbollah while trying to save itself even as Hezbollah dies for Iran?
UPDATE: Is this how Israel will balance the factors affecting their response?
While all options are on the table, Israeli officials indicated that its first targets would be Iran's oil facilities, air defense systems, and targeted assassinations. Iran's nuclear program will reportedly remain safe unless Iran attacks again.
One can never tell if this is accurate or an attempt to fool Iran about the real targets.
UPDATE: Lessons from Iran's second barrage on Israel: Managing interceptors; being ready with no notice; and passive defenses to protect civilians.
Unmentioned in defense? Going to the source and striking missile-launching sites or hitting them as they launch.
That author does think nuclear
sites are logical targets for Israel. I don't know if Israel wants to go all the way. But Israel was highly restrained after the first barrage. So I expect serious firepower this time.
But if a lot of dead Iranian nuclear and missile scientists and technicians are found around Iran, that would really hurt Iran's nuclear weapons progress. That could be the quiet part of retaliation.
UPDATE: A Congressional Research Service report on Israel and Hezbollah at war.
UPDATE: More from the BBC.
UPDATE: More from ISW, which also shows limited incursions on the southeast portion of the border and also further north close to the bend in the Litani River where it turns north.
The incursions are likely recon and clearing prior to the main thrusts.
UPDATE: It is really interesting that Hezbollah's arsenal of tens of thousands of artillery rockets plus a significant number of longer range missiles presumably gave them the capability to fire a surge of rockets. And keep doing it. Until Israel's Iron Dome was overwhelmed.
While Hezbollah has kept of a level that is mostly harassing fire, even now when Israel has accelerated fires, decimated Hezbollah command and control, and begun operating inside Lebanon to apparently prepare to invade, Hezbollah has not launched that barrage.
Why not? That's the core of their threat to Israel. Is command and control so screwed up that it can't? Have Israeli strikes on the rocket sites done serious damage and perhaps made enough crews too worried to man them? Was the capability always a bluff? Or is Hezbollah reluctant to pull the trigger on their primary strategic asset except in an extreme position and they don't feel they've reached that stage yet?
Anyway, Strategypage looks at the war and isn't too impressed with Israel's enemies.
Ah yes, they essentially argue, if only Israel had reacted to over a thousand dead Israelis by just giving in to the demands of the rapists and murderers for everything "from the (Jordan) river to the (Mediterranean) sea", we'd have peace. Instead the Israelis fought back. How awful. Where's the nuance in that?
And yet it is apparently verboten to observe that Hamas could end the suffering of the Gazan people in an hour by surrendering to Israel rather than using civilians as human shields.
UPDATE: Back on the new main front, Israel is still operating just across the border, seemingly in two major locations:
ISW reports:
The IDF plans to send more forces, according to the correspondent, which would build upon the two divisions already operating in southern Lebanon. These divisions have primarily operated around Lebanese villages immediately along the border with Israel.
I assume that means two divisions are controlling operations inside Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon territory in the south, rather than two entire divisions are operating there. ISW highlights the areas around those closed Israeli military zones. Anyway, a third division is gearing up to get involved.
UPDATE: Via Instapundit, that "in some way" path to peace has a lot of ground to cover. There is surely a way to get peace with Gazans. But not through Hamas or its satellite jihadi groups.
Wars that go on too long tend end with a lot of casualties and unexpected costs – if they end at all. War is complex, and combatants must simplify the fight to a ruthless focus on defeating the enemy.
Giving your enemy time to slow the pace of your troop casualties is false compassion.
UPDATE: Mark Steyn has thoughts:
There will be many observances of October 7th today. You might think that, if one's principal concern is the "disproportionate" nature of the Israeli reprisals, one might schedule the protest marches for the first anniversary of the Zionist Entity's counter-attacks, its first strikes on Gaza. Instead, in almost every major city across the west, the big parades are happening on the anniversary of October 7th - which risks giving the unfortunate impression that what they're really commemorating (indeed, celebrating) is the big pile of Jew corpses, plus the attendant hostage-taking, baby-burning, mutilations, decapitations and industrial-scale gang-rape.
As it is Steyn, I can refer back to when Steyn cited me so many years ago when I asked "why do we hate us?"
Sadly, we now hate ourselves with even more fanatical certainty in some circles.
UPDATE: Brief thoughts on Substack on the anniversary of the Hamas murder-and-rape invasion of Israel.
UPDATE: More from ISW. Israel announced a third division involved in Lebanon. And there are now four Israeli closed military zones on the Israeli side of the border. Is it one zone per division, indicating a fourth division gearing up?
UPDATE: Israel says a fourth division is active now.
Sounds like the last warning before the big push north.
UPDATE: A large division would have that many troops:
An Israeli military corresponded estimated that there are likely over 15,000 Israeli soldiers deployed to fight in southern Lebanon.
I don't know how many troops are in an Israeli division. But clearly the divisions are not all inside Lebanese territory.
Operations continue inside Gaza.
UPDATE: Okay, this NYT article says Israeli divisions are 10,000 to 15,000 strong. And here's the article map:
UPDATE: We'll see what it looks like:
The war in Gaza is set to wrap up during the coming year and a new governing authority will be put in place to run the conflict-ravaged enclave, Israel’s ambassador to the European Union told POLITICO.
But it doesn't sound as ambitious as my proposal.
UPDATE: Hezbollah wants a ceasefire. I say the rule should be crush first, then cease firing.
UPDATE: Not so eager to reach Paradise too soon:
Israeli forces in southern Lebanon have observed that Hezbollah prefers to engage from a distance, using anti-tank missiles and rockets, as opposed to close-quarters combat in border villages.[9] Israeli sources have reported that Hezbollah forces will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF.[10] The IDF 36th Division commander similarly noted that some Hezbollah militants withdraw deeper into Lebanon while others flee outright.
When you consider that Iran bled Hezbollah in Syria to save Assad, maybe not too shocking:
Since 2011 [to mid-2017] Hezbollah has suffered about 8,000 casualties in Syria. While Iran has picked up the cost of medical treatment and “life insurance” payments to the families of the 2,000 or so Hezbollah that have died in Syria, all those casualties were not only unpopular in Lebanon but made it more difficult to recruit men to serve in the Hezbollah militia.
UPDATE: This isn't the first deployment:
At the direction of the President, Secretary Austin authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and associated crew of U.S. military personnel to Israel to help bolster Israel's air defenses following Iran's unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1. The THAAD Battery will augment Israel's integrated air defense system.But we don't have many, so it is significant. And the first time it will be ready for actual combat.
UPDATE: Huh:
Israel expanded its offensive in southern Lebanon Sunday, calling on the United Nations to evacuate its peacekeeping units and allegedly using tanks to burst through the gates of a peacekeeper base.
Remember that the official purpose of the UN force in southern Lebanon is to prevent Hezbollah from operating in southern Lebanon to threaten Israel. So call it UNIFAIL. In the sainted international community, the UN in southern Lebanon shields Hezbollah from Israel.
UPDATE: As Israel apparently negotiates with the American government about what is acceptable for Israel to destroy in retaliation, the dispatch of American THAAD missile defense troops to Israel suggests there is an agreement on limits. What will Israel hit?
I wonder where Israel's submarines are, with their land attack capabilities in addition to anti-ship capabilities. Could Israel focus on crippling the Houthi and the Iranian supply lines to the Houthi, Iranian spotting assets at sea, and Houthi assets?
This would certainly help Israel by taking out another proxy force. And it would help America by doing what we apparently can't be bothered with doing.
Israel is crushing Hamas and is about to crush Hezbollah. Taking out the Houthi missile capabilities would be an anti-proxy hat trick.
UPDATE: Fascinating article on the rise and fall of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Is this a sign of true defeat or of an attempt to buy time by exploiting the United Nations to remain in the south as it did after 2006 and turning to undermining Amal to again get on top?
After Israel’s success in eliminating Hezbollah’s military and political leadership, Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, informed Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati of the party’s readiness to withdraw to north of the Litani River. He also authorized the head of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri, who has been parliamentary speaker since 1992, to negotiate arrangements on behalf of Hezbollah to stop the war, paving the way for placing the party under the mantle of the Amal Movement, which would be a major shift in the balance of power among the Shiites of Lebanon.
The article also notes that Israel has knocked out 2/3 of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal. Which could still mean 60,000 intact. But as I noted earlier, the lack of a massive Hezbollah barrage to overwhelm Iron Dome is the dog that did not bark in the night, no? Why didn't Hezbollah use them before it lost them? Has this threat been hollow? Did Israel succeed in eroding Hezbollah firing sites and command-and-control to preempt that kind of attack? Largely from the air on the former?
UPDATE: Looking at ISW reporting, it seems like the U.S. is trying to get Lebanon's government to reduce Hezbollah's power within the government to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River.We shall see if fear of Hezbollah or fear of the damage an Israeli multi-division raid into Lebanon to wreck Hezbollah will inflict is more powerful.
Elements of five Israeli divisions are operating inside Lebanon. A drive north will be possible if the diplomatic effort can't dislodge Hezbollah.
Also, at some point a serious effort to round up Hamas elements in the West Bank will need to be carried out. The border between the West Bank and Israel is fairly porous. And many Israelis live on the other side of that border.
UPDATE: Does this telegraph Israel's choice of targets or is it simply a coincidence?
The US carried out a round of strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis on Wednesday evening, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, targeting five underground weapons storage facilities using B-2 stealth bombers.
Secretary of Defense Austin issued a statement. The strike was justified on the basis of protecting maritime trade routes.
UPDATE: Another good jihadi leader:
Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who stunned Israel and the world as a mastermind of the 2023 massacre and hostage-taking that set off the devastating Gaza war and made him a top target for Israel, was killed by Israel’s military.
Rot in Hell.
UPDATE: The narrow penetrations and slow pace of five Israeli divisions commanding elements inside Lebanon is confusing. If these apparent bridgeheads are for the purpose of sending more of those divisions advancing north, what is going on? Is it taking a long time to clear Hezbollah facilities, including tunnels, to secure the supply lines of such a big operation marching north?
The bubbles of Israeli troops don't make it look like the Israelis are trying to clear the border area in general in a shallow belt.
Perhaps the failure of Hezbollah to mount a massive rocket attack gives Israel time to work over Hezbollah from the air, confident their Iron Dome defenses won't be overwhelmed by a rocket barrage any time soon.
Or maybe diplomacy to flip the Lebanese government to take on Hezbollah is delaying an operation.
Or it may be as simple that the Israeli government hasn't made the decision to march north to the Bekaa Valley to seriously tear up Hezbollah infrastructure.
UPDATE: Israel struck Iranian air defense and missile/drone bases and production sights. No aircraft were lost. It appears to have been purely air strikes. Israel refrained from hitting energy or nuclear sites in an apparent effort to deter further Iranian direct attacks on Israel by holding open the threat of hitting them next.
Strikes continue in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria.
UPDATE: More details on Israel's strike. Israel struck Iranian early warning systems in Syria prior to the strike on Iran. One of the targets hit in Iran has been involved in making conventional explosives for nuclear warheads. Perhaps consider that a shot across the bow about what comes next if Iran persists in directly striking Israel.
UPDATE: That's what it seems like:
Lebanese Hezbollah is attempting to obfuscate the reality that its military forces in southern Lebanon are disorganized and conducting ineffective military operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah’s military forces have been badly damaged and disrupted by Israeli military action.
I've noted a lack of a major surge of rocket fires to overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome. And I've read that Israel is capturing expensive weapons, indicating that Hezbollah is skedaddling rather than using or evacuating the weapons. Further, it seems like Hezbollah is firing from a distance and pulling back rather than choosing a hill to die on.
But I've noted the slow and shallow operations Israel is conducting north of the Israel-Lebanon border. I assume this was about clearing jumping off positions to move north. Yet those operations continue. I'll ask if the long time it is taking Israel to drive north into Lebanon is giving Hezbollah time to recover from the disruption of command and control? Isn't Israel giving Hezbollah the gift of time?
UPDATE: Meanwhile back in Gaza:
Israeli soldiers captured around 100 suspected Hamas militants during a raid in Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza, the military said on Monday.
Terrorists hiding in a hospital behind human shields? No! Way!
More importantly, when 100 terrorists surrender rather than fight for the mere hope of killing a single Jew, can we say that the end is nigh for Hamas resistance?
UPDATE: Speak softly and carry a precise stick:
The precise nature of the recent Israeli strikes into Iran has partially obscured the serious damage these strikes inflicted on critical Iranian defense and military infrastructure.
Israel may have disrupted missile production and scraped away air defenses. If Iran decides to start a third round, I don't think Israel will restrain its response.
UPDATE: Hezbollah is dug in deep in lots of Lebanon. It makes sense to strike this far north:
A series of strikes hit the ancient city of Baalbek and nearby villages in eastern Lebanon, following an evacuation warning by the Israeli military, security sources and witnesses said.
Will Israel move their army that far north despite indications Israel is limiting itself to the Litani River line? It makes sense for an army raid that far north.
UPDATE: Is Israel really ready for a ceasefire against Hezbollah?
The Israeli officials said that the IDF is “very close” to ending its initial phase of ground operations in Lebanese border villages. This reporting is consistent with recent reports that the IDF Northern Command expects to finish its initial phase of ground operations in southern Lebanon within a few weeks.
Initial phase could just mean "bridgeheads" through Hezbollah's border defense zone that Israel will funnel more troops north. So maybe Israel is willing to have a ceasefire if the terms force Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and reduce its influence in Lebanon.
Which could mean that if Israel doesn't get those terms, the initial phase of ground operations will shift to a second phase of driving north. After all, tanks have moved farther north than they have up to now:
Lebanese state media said on Tuesday that ["a large number of"] Israeli tanks had rolled into the outskirts of the village Khiam, their deepest incursion yet into southern Lebanon since the start of the ground operation last month.
It could go either way, I suppose.
UPDATE: I think this potential Iranian action will be license for Israel to go big against Iran's nuclear and/or energy export infrastructure:
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the Iranian Supreme National Security Council on October 29 to plan a retaliatory attack on Israel, according to the New York Times.
Israel will feel less restraint after America's election after holding back following two Iranian mass missile and drone attacks on Israel. If Israel does respond big as I think, I'd officially say a new phase of the war has opened--open and direct Israel-Iran war.
UPDATE: Huh:
Israeli naval forces captured a senior Hezbollah operative in north Lebanon, an Israeli military official said Saturday, as the conflict between the Iran-backed group and Israel showed few signs of easing.
The article says this is the first time Israel announced it has operated on the ground that far north.
Is this a raid or shaping the battlefield away from the border for a future ground advance? Although I wouldn't expect Israeli ground troops to advance to the coast north of Beirut where the raid was carried out.
UPDATE: Per ISW, it seems that Israel has not yet decided between a major ground attack deep into Lebanon (which would be a lengthy raid to dig out Hezbollah) and diplomacy to achieve its objective:
The Israeli prime minister stated that Israel needs to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River “with or without an agreement” to achieve Israel's stated war aims, which is to return residents of northern Israel to their homes under safe conditions. Current Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are unlikely to achieve these war aims, though it does not follow that future Israeli operations will fail to achieve the Israeli objectivesFurther:
The United States warned Iran against launching another attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes into Iran on October 25 because the United States will not be able to restrain Israel’s response.
And given the assets America has that can reach the region, Iran can't know whether America will assist Israel's response.
UPDATE: That's what it looks like to me:
Halevi said that the IDF will develop plans to “expand and deepen” ground operations and activate those plans as needed. Halevi noted that these plans will be formulated alongside efforts to pursue a diplomatic agreement in Lebanon.
How long will the diplomatic track be allowed to proceed? Because Hezbollah could be trying to buy time to restore its disrupted military capabilities to make the military track harder for Israel.
UPDATE: It really is odd that Hezbollah didn't use their capability while it could:
Although Hezbollah has launched a daily average of 44 rockets into Israel in November 2024, the volume of rocket fire is short of pre-war estimates of Hezbollah’s capabilities, which had indicated that Hezbollah may launch up to 1,500 missiles and rockets daily in the event of war.
It seems like they fired enough for Solidarity Theater. But not enough to overwhelm Iron Dome and anger the Israelis too much.
UPDATE: Warning to Hezbollah to withdraw under a deal or next step to destroy them in the south?
Israel’s military ground operation in southern Lebanon has been expanded, the country’s defense minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday.
UPDATE: As long as this situation continues, Israel has more freedom to hammer Hezbollah from the air rather than kick a ground operation into high gear to occupy the rocket launch and storage sites:
The IDF has likely disrupted the ability of Lebanese Hezbollah to fire into Israel. Hezbollah is struggling to conduct coordinated, large-scale attacks into Israel, suggesting challenges communicating across tactical units or operational-level headquarters.
UPDATE: Hmmm:
Israel’s newly appointed minister of defense said Sunday his country has defeated Hezbollah, noting that the elimination of the Lebanese terrorist organization’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was the crowning achievement.
Hezbollah is defeated. For now. Will Israel let it reconstitute?
UPDATE: Is this a sign that the Hezbollah War will come to an end?
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
And will that mean the wider war against Iran and its proxies ends? Or does it mean Israel turns to make other proxies the primary target?
And I assume a more quiet war against Hamas will continue in Gaza and wherever Hamas hides.
IDF efforts appear to have thus degraded Hezbollah and its ability to conduct large or coordinated indirect fire attacks into Israel, although the group has retained the ability to conduct limited and sporadic attacks. Senior Israeli officials have expressed the intent to push Hezbollah north of the Litani river, but IDF ground operations have thus far been more limited in scope and depth of penetration.
I expected Israel to exploit the disruption with a deep push into the Bekaa Valley to really rip apart Hezbollah's infrastructure and kill or capture a lot of the rear area types needed to keep things organized. In addition to killing and capturing fighters on the way there. That's the only way to buy serious time and the only way to break Hezbollah's hold on Lebanon.
But perhaps my expectations don't take into consideration the casualties Israel has endured from October 7, 2023 to now. Or maybe it's just a matter of Israel not taking this step yet. As ISW assesses:
Hezbollah has maintained a steady rate of attacks into Israel, however, indicating that the current Israeli operations on their own are probably insufficient to achieve the stated Israeli war aims. Israeli ground operations have cleared approximately one percent of Lebanese territory at the time of this writing, and Hezbollah maintains advanced weapons systems and infrastructure across most of the country. The IDF Air Force has struck Hezbollah assets deep in Lebanon, but airstrikes alone will not destroy Hezbollah‘s drone, missile, and rocket stockpiles across the country.
There's a reason Israel isn't going deep on the ground. What is it?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm also writing on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: ISW covers Israel's war against Iran and its proxies.
