The weather gets warmer in Ukraine. And in time the ground will get solid. This is when an old KGB thug's fancy turns to conquest. Try to remember Reagan's advice about the Cold War: "We win, they lose."
While hardly Kursk scale, is this an early indicator of Russian intent for the next months?
Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023. A Ukrainian serviceman reported on March 31 that Russian forces, including elements of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District [CMD]), committed 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) to a large-mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30.[20] Geolocated imagery published on March 31 shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).[21] The Ukrainian serviceman stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight IFVs during the assault and noted that the frontal assault failed to breakthrough the Ukrainian line....
The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized assault this large since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles on October 19-20, 2023.[23] Ukraine’s ability to defend against the March 30 assault, particularly near Avdiivka where Ukrainian forces have been forced to quickly withdraw to new, defensive positions following the loss of the settlement, is a positive indicator for Ukraine’s ability to defend against future large-scale Russian assaults and the expected summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.
It's large for this war. And ISW later noted it is part of a recent trend:
Russian forces appear to have increased the number and size of mechanized ground assaults on select sectors of the frontline within the past two weeks, marking a notable overall increase in Russian mechanized assaults across the theater. ...
Russian forces may be intensifying the overall tempo of their offensive operations in Ukraine.
The observation on mechanized attacks speaks to the reality that the fronts seem thinly manned and equipped if relatively small mechanized attacks can push the line back even a bit. If Ukraine had American support, it would be extremely hard for the Russians to pierce Ukrainian lines and then exploit it in a war-winning advance.
But does it represent the leading edge of a concentration of Russian ground forces for larger attacks in the coming months after spring soggy ground dries out by the summer? Is Russia trying to gain what it sees as jumping off points for a large offensive?
According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
That article cites one Ukrainian officer's prediction of a big Russian offensive no later than August.
Sure, Ukraine has incentive to push America to resume military aid as soon as possible. And that is valid whether Ukraine truly fears collapse or "only" wants to reduce their casualties by spending weapons and ammunition rather than blood.
But the worry about a collapse despite the surface stalemate that Russia is only slowly overcoming with small advances across the front is real. That's how a tipping point is reached. Gradually and then suddenly:
Too often when one side wins a war it looks inevitable in retrospect. In reality, the outcome can sit on the knife's edge until the fighting tilts to one side and begins a growing advantage that leads to victory.
I thought in May 2022 that this cascade might happen to Russia's army:
Ukraine, if it has the reserves, could rip Russia's army a new a-hole. Ukraine is attacking on the Kherson front. Let us hope that we don't have a replay of this tragic conversation in 1940:
Churchill asked General Gamelin, "Where is the strategic reserve?" which had saved Paris in the First World War. "There is none", Gamelin replied.The Ukrainians have been smart this war. I cannot believe that Ukraine has not built a strategic reserve. Even at the price of asking outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian troops to desperately hold the line in the Donbas.
I had hoped a fall 2022 or winter 2023 counteroffensive could exploit Russia's exhausted ground forces. But there was no strategic reserve. Ukraine lacked the ability to push hard enough when it belatedly struck in 2023 to do more than dent the Russian defensive lines--let alone break them.
Or is Russia trying to divert Ukrainian attention south in order to make a large drive on the large city of Kharkiv which lies close to the Russian border? Russia retreated from lines just outside the city in late 2022 when Ukraine launched a lightning counter-offensive southeast of the city. The Russians might see that as the biggest bang for the buck that their ground forces could achieve this year. Russia has again begun bombarding the city on a larger scale.
Or perhaps Russia is playing for 2025 and simply wants to inflict losses on Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from building up forces and regaining the initiative for offensive action this year or next year.
The war goes on. Does America appreciate that in war we either win or lose, as Reagan observed?
UPDATE (Thursday): Oh?
The top U.S. general in Europe has warned that Ukraine cannot sustain its fight against Russia alone as a major spending bill languishes in the House of Representatives, blocked by a small number of Republicans who believe domestic matters should take priority. [emphasis added]
Note that the general did not add that last part on blame for the legislative stalemate.
It's not actually an unreasonable Republican condition. Especially when they're asking Biden to carry out a basic duty. Why is Biden holding Ukraine hostage to keep our border undefended against drugs and illegal migrants coming across in unprecedented numbers?
Keep in mind, I'm strongly in favor of arming Ukraine to defeat the Russians. I have a long history on TDR supporting Ukraine. Long before Democrats learned where the country is on a map. I don't get why some Republicans oppose resisting Russia's march west.
But I don't get Democrats at all. I never imagined Biden could get away with throwing Ukraine under the bus to refuse to do his duty to protect our border. Seemingly to blame Republicans for the fall of Ukraine and the open border.
The media runs interference for Democrats rather than point this out.
UPDATE (Friday): Strategic warfare heats up, too:
Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Why our government opposes Ukraine's effort to deprive Russia's military of fuel is beyond me.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.