We can totally trust that Russia has limited appetite for conquest?
So no worries about Russia other than stopping Russia as a warm up to preparing to stop China?
Russia chiefly seeks to rebuild a sphere of influence in its neighborhood. It can also stoke trouble far afield, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. But unlike its predecessor it does not aspire to global domination. The Soviet Union’s perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and desire for recognition fuelled its quest for global power (outlined in a forthcoming book by the historian Sergey Radchenko). For Russia, with 140 million people and an Italy-sized GDP ($2 trillion), such ambitions would be fanciful. [emphasis added]
So ... enslaving people [checks notes] nearby is okay?
At least the author wants to stop Russia in Ukraine. I'm fully on board that. But his foundation for pivoting to writing about China gives ammunition to those who say Ukraine should be abandoned rather than delay that future preparation for the Mister Good War threat of China.
But the claim that Russia doesn't have perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and a desire for recognition is astounding. Really? That's what we're going with?
Further, isn't saying it is safe for Russia to have some territorial ambitions because a Russia with just 140 million people and a GDP of a mere $2 trillion can't aspire to more ambitions cutting off the "lather, rinse, repeat" process at the initial lather?
If Russia starts restoring its empire--just a little in its "natural"
sphere of influence--its population and GDP will go up. How much do they
have to go up before global power ambitions are no longer fanciful?
And if the Russians move west, how long before their troops are close enough to the Rhine to convince some Europeans that it would be safer and cheaper to cut deals with Russia? I've long argued that Europe had a global role in the Cold War because of the importance of Europe. If Russia controls, dominates, or intimidates Western Europe, that is global power.
Oh that's silly, you say. But where is the natural limit of Russian sphere-of-influence ambitions? The Elbe River wasn't enough for Russia in the Cold War and they aimed for the Rhine. Hell, they aimed for more but for American use of the atomic bomb on Japan.
Still, if the author thinks we have to stop Russia in Ukraine before being able to fully cope with China, I'm fine with that. I just don't get why the author took a detour down "Russia isn't so bad of a threat" Boulevard.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
