Russia scored a win in Africa that aids Russia's migrant war on Europe. Without Niger, we have to retreat to the coast. We could support the fight from the sea with a power projection platform I suggested in 2016.
All US soldiers are set to leave Niger, ending their role in the fight against Islamist insurgents.
Military leaders in the West African nation have sought closer ties with Russia since seizing power in a coup last year.
On Friday the US also announced than it had agreed to close down its drone base near Agadez, in the Sahara desert.
Niger is in Africa's Sahel region, which is considered the new global epicentre of the Islamic State group.
The US has relied on Niger as its primary base for monitoring regional jihadist activity.
More Africa chaos means more illegal migrants flooding Europe. Which is a Russian goal to put pressure on Europe over Ukraine:
The most enduring impact of Putin’s Syria gamble will be felt in Europe. The Europeans are being sent a message that if a solution to the migrant flows into Europe is to be found, Russia must have a say in the matter[.]
More chaos in Africa means more need for American and European countries to divert attention and resources away from confronting Russia in Europe in order to stabilize Africa.
AFRICOM (United States Africa Command) is an economy-of-force front, but it still needs force to hold the line.
And America needs places to put the forces, which is now a problem without Niger:
The decision to expel American forces will likely accelerate contingency plans that would pivot U.S. strategy from trying to defeat al Qaeda and Islamic State where they are strongest to trying to keep militants from infiltrating neighboring countries along the West African coast.
Let me suggest The AFRICOM Queen (as I advocated in Military Review) as an offshore platform that can move around the continent to quietly reinforce our small footprint from a discreet distance.
In a crisis or in order to carry out a specific mission, reinforcements could quietly stage through that modularized auxiliary cruiser equipped for a power projection mission.
Naturally, this power projection platform wouldn't replace an inland outpost as we had built in Niger:
It could spend a long time on patrol, which is a major advantage for a command that normally only gets Navy ships for a short time while they transit to and from CENTCOM.
Such a platform could move ground and aerial assets around the continent to strike jihadis from unexpected directions; reinforce land sites and locations; or bolster American embassies or consulates under threat.
Mind you, much of Africa is too far from the coasts to make an afloat force relevant in those regions. I'd no more claim an afloat force in the Gulf of Mexico could intervene in Canada.
Of course, the Navy now has a number of ships that could do the job, too. Assuming higher priority theaters don't demand them.
But every little bit helps, eh? And if the line is now drawn at the coastal states, a mobile sea base will work until we can push our counter-terrorism influence inland again.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
