The Winter War of 2022 Rests and Refits

The Winter War of 2022 drags on with no end in sight. Russia is rebuilding with its own resources and those of its weak rogue friends. Ukraine lacks the size to compete with Russia's industry and must endure Russian bombardment of any industry it builds to compete. Will the West support Ukraine against Russia's brutal invasion more effectively than Russia's Axis of Weasels is helping Putin?

Ukrainians aren't enlisting like they did early when Russia was storming into Ukraine and when driving the Russians out seemed in their grasp:

On Christmas night, the Ukrainian government submitted the long-awaited bill on mobilization to parliament, triggering scorn from some opposition lawmakers.

Ukraine needs to draft people to win this war.

Keep in mind that it is normal for citizens to lose enthusiasm when a war drags on. We faced that even in our Revolution. 

And for the long run, Ukraine wants to reduce dependence on the West for the means to fight by building up its own industry and increasing production cooperation with foreign defense companies:

Ukraine’s prospects for sustaining its military forces with limited assistance over the long term are excellent. Ukraine is heavily industrialized with a highly educated and technically sophisticated population. It had a massive arms industry during the Soviet period and continued to be a significant arms exporter after independence. The Russian occupation of key industrial areas and destruction of important centers of weapons production, especially the Kharkiv tank factory, has degraded but not eliminated the solid base on which Ukraine can build a viable DIB to support its military forces in the future.

It will take years, so Western help to reach higher self-sufficiency and to meet Ukraine's needs in the short run is critical. Although right now Ukraine does not have the capability to produce all tank components.

Russia has seemingly changed the focus of its strategic bombing campaign away from the effort to hurt civilian morale in last winter's aerial assault:

The target of Russia's winter campaign of missile strikes is predominantly Ukraine's military-industrial complex, Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR), said in an interview with RBC Ukraine on Jan. 15.

We'll see if that lasts.

Slowing Ukraine's rearmament down is only half of Russia's objective. Russia, too, is counting on mobilizing industry to wage a long war:

Professor Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for Airpower and Technology, says Russia’s economy is now on a war footing, with armament production rising sharply. 

“The Kremlin’s strategy is to conquer Ukraine by continuing to fight until the West gives up, so forcing Kyiv to ‘negotiate’ won’t end the war, it will only encourage Russia to fight on.”

And we shall see if Putin orders another wave of mobilization for more men over the winter or after his spring "re-election" puts that potential means of the public signaling discontent in the rear view mirror.

By doing this, Russia hopes to grind down Ukraine's ability to fight and erode the West's resolve to arm Ukraine. 

Breedlove gets to the basic issue: 

"If the West chooses to give Ukraine what they need to win, Ukraine will win this war," the four-star general said. "This war is going to end exactly how Western policymakers want and desire it to end." 

In the long run, helping Ukraine arm itself is what it needs to win. Don't let weakened Russia scare us into retreating from our assistance to Ukraine. When you start to take Vienna, take Vienna. 

UPDATE (Monday): Expect no liberation of territory this year:

The [American] idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its position on the battlefield for now, but “put them on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024 … and get them on a more sustainable path,” said the senior official[.]

But eventually, Ukraine must attack. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): In the short run, higher-than-expected costs push leaders to demand higher objectives to justify the higher costs:

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin reiterated that the Kremlin is not interested in any settlements short of the complete destruction and eradication of the Ukrainian state, likely in an ongoing effort to justify the long-term and costly Russian war effort to domestic audiences.

Only Westerners are talking about Russia keeping what they've taken as the price of Russia reloading peace.

But eventually, no objective is high enough to justify increasing costs. Assuming your army or homefront doesn't break, you might just turn around and go home.

UPDATE (Friday): Area denial--or perhaps just anti-access--in action:

A dramatic new view released by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shows several of its uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) strike and sink the Russian Tarantul-III class missile corvette Ivanovets. The attack took place Wednesday night local time on the Black Sea near Lake Donuzlav in western Crimea, the GUR said on its Telegram channel.

It depends on whether the Russians stay out of that area or pay a higher price to operate in it.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump. 

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.