China has fewer friends on Taiwan and the trend is not good for persuading Taiwan to accept Peking's rule. Does that mean military force and all its uncertainties is the only alternative for China to take control of Taiwan?
If China enjoys no support among Taiwan’s political parties, there’s little prospect a China-friendly president will take up residence in the Presidential Office in Taipei following this month’s elections. Without a China-friendly president and legislature, China stands vanishingly little chance of achieving its paramount goal of gaining control of the island without fighting. It will have to deploy armed force, with all the hazards and costs warfare entails.
The author says China bungled by bullying Taiwan. But then goes on to say that the rising generation lacks the ties to China that the 1949 refugees from the Chinese Civil War had. Those ties initially wanted to "return to the mainland" to reverse the civil war loss. But many pined for any unification--even under CCP control, if necessary.
So the shift in Taiwanese sentiment might have been out of China's control regardless of their alternating smiling charm offensives and blustering military threats.
And while China might have to use force, if that inspires fear even if it doesn't inspire solidarity, China might win with far less of a fight than we hope. As I wrote, arming Taiwan is the least of the problems involved in defending Taiwan.
And if that fear spreads widely enough among Taiwan's civilian and military leadership, being feared might do more for China than being loved by the Taiwanese. China might get that voluntary submission without a fight that Taiwan fears it will lose.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
