Ukraine's drone and missile campaign against Russia's Black Sea Fleet is denying Russia free use of the sea and allowing Ukraine to make limited use of portions of the sea. Is this a revolution in naval warfare?
The implications of the naval war in the Black Sea raise serious questions about whether investment of such staggering amounts of money, not just in the United States but elsewhere, is worth it. If billion or multi-billion-dollar ships can be held at risk (and sunk) by missiles and/or robots that are a fraction of these ships’ cost, it suggests that the calculus calling for construction of expensive, multi-mission ships cries out for serious review.
Define "threaten". If you mean can small
powers occasionally sink a large power's major ships with cheap weapons,
yes. Although in the case of Iran which the author raised, America has offensive options to cope with their A2/AD threat.
If you mean defeat their navy? I don't think so. Unless imposing sufficiently high costs is equivalent to defeating it.
Further, Ukraine doesn't control the Black Sea
to exploit control. I don't count Ukraine's grain exports as exploiting
control because if Russia attacked those civilian ships, it would hurt
Russia in the Third World. Russia could certainly attack Ukrainian naval
vessels trying to use the Black Sea just as Ukraine has attacked
Russian vessels.
And Ukraine's success isn't only based on the
cheap precision weapons that provide Ukraine's threat to the Russian
Black Sea Fleet. It is the very expensive NATO-provided surveillance
network blanketed over the region that provides Ukraine with up-to-date
target information using those cheap weapons that creates the threat. So stop throwing panties at USVs.
Mind you, long before the Winter War of 2022, I concluded that our big carriers have to be demoted from queen of the fleet in a sea control role because other big powers have that combination.
And back to Iran, which had a non-technological threat of swarming human-manned speedboats, there is a way to greatly reduce the threat of those A2/AD threats to our big ships.
But yes, more but cheaper networked surface ships are needed instead of only capital ships. The author is very correct about that.
Although good luck with building or repairing the big ships.
The naval revolution is here. And lack of money and sailors will push the Navy that way. But I don't think this revolution has reached small powers--unless the small powers are backed by a major power that provides the surveillance and targeting information needed to routinely use those new precision weapons.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
