Russian forces in Kaliningrad pose an anti-access/area denial threat to NATO operations in defense of the Baltic states and Poland. Poland is stepping up to destroy that Russian bastion.
Poland is leaning forward to deal with the Russian threat:
General Skshipchak added that in the event of war between Russia and NATO, one of the first steps of allied forces would be the “elimination of the Kaliningrad region.” “No one will allow military actions on the eastern borders of Poland, the Suwalki Gap, and Lithuania, with Kaliningrad behind them,” he explained.
I view the Russian threat as primarily one of air defense and surface-to-surface missiles. The Russian corps described has just three brigades, I think. Although if not crushed it could be an anvil to the Russian army hammer advancing from Belarus.
I prefer NATO be able to counter-attack into the region to destroy the occupying Russian army. After inflicting attrition as NATO forces fall back and live to fight another day.
Holding the Suwalki Gap and the rest of Poland to receive and deploy NATO reinforcements is key to that sequence. As is missile defense:
The U.S. military's Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense site in Poland is finally set to go operational after years of construction delays and other issues.
Finally.
Holding Poland is key to holding Poland, too, of course.
But the prerequisite to conducting decisive operations against the main Russian ground forces is the destruction of the Kaliningrad bastion--preferably by occupying it.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
