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Sunday, November 05, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

Is Israel carrying out genocide of the people of Gaza? No. In a genocide, what the victims do is irrelevant to the mass murder. There was nothing European Jews could do to stop the Nazi genocide. In Gaza, if Hamas surrendered themselves to Israeli forces, the Israeli attacks on military targets (with unfortunate but legal civilian casualties) would instantly stop and the humanitarian aid would flow freely. That is a sign of a war of self defense and not of a genocide.

Exercising Aegis.

I thought that was odd.

Indeed: "If deterrence, which failed regarding Ukraine, fails regarding Taiwan, this might be because adversaries understand that U.S. leaders have allowed the nation’s defense industrial base to become shockingly short of capacities commensurate with the world’s multiplying threats." Get on that. And yeah, I'm most worried about the Navy these days.

Renaming Fort Gordon to honor Eisenhower ends a 100-year tradition of naming some Army bases for Confederate generals. Fine, I guess. I like Ike. But am I the only one who noticed that this so-called problematic tradition turned what were once secessionist icons into symbols of American military power that defend our nation and Constitution? Including the portions added to protect freed slaves? Or maybe with that achieved, we're free to honor others. But how long before the new namesakes of the bases get a woke colonoscopy looking for flaws?

I'm going to need convincing that this isn't monumentally stupid: "The Air Force is to begin testing an all-electric manned aircraft at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, as the U.S. military looks for ways to reduce its carbon footprint."

Signs of an alliance? Why wouldn't China say nice things about its vassal? When it needs to time to figure out what to do about its junior partner proving to be a 21st-century Mussolini, before Putin drags Xi down with him?

China illegally claims that territory--which Reuters doesn't mention--but believes it has the power to insist: "China's military said on Monday that a Philippine vessel 'illegally entered' waters near Scarborough Shoal without authorisation and it urged the Philippines to immediately stop its provocations." While a U.S.-China war probably won't start there, shooting certainly could. I will again suggest Berlin Airlift (East) to be more firm in my "probably" judgment.

Who knew there were American college campuses in Dagestan?

The Biden administration is fine with dead Jews unable to defend themselves, as October 7th proved is the difference between life and death: "The US has threatened to stop supplying rifles to Israel after their national security minister was seen handing them out to civilians."

I assume this was part of the bribe to Turkey to let Sweden into NATO: "The Estonian Centre for Defence Investments has awarded contracts to Turkish manufacturers Otokar and Nurol Makina to purchase roughly 230 armored vehicles for a total of about €200 million (U.S. $211 million), the agency announced."

Sure, the Russian and Chinese air forces aren't as good as American air forces (Air Force, Navy, Marines). But the Russians (and Chinese) may have a limited objective for their air forces.

Harvard is a-hole. To be fair, it's a progressive finishing school. Check the Venn Diagram on that relationship.

Sure, the French suburb looks nice now. But will the "social housing" inhabitants demonstrate the hate and violence that makes French suburbs such a problem? Will a decade tear down the facade of beauty built at great expense on that kind of foundation? Hey, good luck with that. But I'm not optimistic this won't become the loveliest "no go" zone in France. Tip to Instapundit.

Wait. What? Does Senator Elizabeth Warren get lost driving there that often? Tip to Instapundit.

Vice President Harris assures America that "Joe Biden is very much alive." Oh? All of a sudden she's a biologist able to judge such things?

Presidential succession process problems.

And now for something completely different:


Biden isn't hugging Israel in sympathy. He's pinning their arms: "For all its headline support of Israel as the IDF moves to eliminate Hamas, the Biden administration is sticking to its pre-Oct. 7 approach to the Middle East — and so effectively working toward Israel’s defeat." Because reasons.

Given China's increasingly forceful and visible subliminal offensive against the Philippines, this seems wise: "The Philippine military is realigning its modernization program to strengthen territorial and coastal defense amid escalating tension with China." With any luck, an article I recently submitted will address this problem in print. You may remember Second Thomas Shoal, which is emerging as the West Berlin of Asia.

I have repeatedly written that I don't know how eager Hezbollah is to jump into the fray against an enraged Israel: "Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has found itself in an awkward position since its ally Hamas launched a deadly, surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Now, after years of spoiling for a fight with Israel, Hezbollah is torn between maintaining its credibility as a defender of the Palestinians, and its hesitation to get involved in a full-scale war." Hezbollah was bloodied in 2006 notwithstanding Israel's bad strategy. And Hezbollah was bloodied again when ordered into Syria to keep Assad in power.

How's that deterring Iran thing going? Oh: "The total number of drone attacks on bases in Iraq and Syria housing U.S. troops has grown to at least 23, a senior defense official told reporters Monday."

Rebuilding Ukraine's air force: "The first U.S.-made F-16 combat aircraft the Netherlands is donating Ukraine will arrive in Romania's training centre within two weeks, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Monday."

Was it really better to ditch the 3 X 5 cards? "A Russian-speaking hacking group obtained access to the email addresses of about 632,000 US federal employees at the departments of Defense and Justice as part of the sprawling MOVEit hack last summer[.]" Or at least air gap this stuff. Make them get out of their comfy chairs, at least.

They are useful from Egypt to Pakistan for evacuating Americans if the Easily Excitable go all Iranian on our embassies: "USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) are expected to remain in the Red Sea for an extended period as part of the U.S. naval buildup in the Middle East, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News Monday."

The Chinese bomber and ICBM threat. We need a little more D in NORAD.

A newspaper able to perceive the most subtle racial microaggression calls the anti-Jewish pogrom in Dagestan, Russia, a mere "outburst." God is great, indeed.

American troops in the Middle East

Is America ready for war? Probably not. But the real question is whether we are more or less ready than our enemies. Russia is certainly less ready now because the West armed Ukraine to fight Russia's invasion. I don't know about China. Although I'm sure their shiny weapons don't reflect actual warfighting capabilities. And I think jihadis, North Korea, and Iran count on being able to attack us without drawing our serious ire. 

The very natural Red-Green alliance of hate.

Blaming the usual suspect for perfectly normal short-term beach erosion.

Senator Graham mis-spoke. He meant to say "the Democratic Party"

Huh: "Israel said its own fighter jets and its new Arrow missile defense system shot down two salvos of incoming fire hours apart as it approached the country's key Red Sea shipping port of Eilat." Iran funds Hamas and helped the terror group organize the October 7 terror invasion. And the Houthis are an Iran-funded proxy force usually devoted to attacking the Saudis. But the headline pretends Iran is some neutral party to be sucked into the war: "Yemen's Houthi rebels claim attacks on Israel, drawing their main sponsor Iran closer to Hamas war". Iran started the war. You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You don't.

I've ridiculed the notion that Gaza is an open-air prison. I stand corrected: "American officials said that Israel and Egypt were prepared to let foreigners leave the Strip which is under heavy Israeli bombardment, but Hamas had refused."

Ah, the Code Pink hags are haggier and pinkier than ever: "A group of protesters calling for a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza interrupted Senate testimony by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Tuesday." So what Democrats let the insurrectionists bent on interfering with Senate business into the building? They eagerly defended Saddam and al Qaeda back in the day. They still swoon for the evil bad boys. Tip to Instapundit.

That jihadi crisis actor clearly stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

I guess it's a war again: "The Department of Defense resurrected a campaign medal for service in Iraq amid a renewal of threats against U.S. troops in the Middle East." Truth be told, notwithstanding how hard we pretended, it didn't stop being a war.

AUKUS: "The second group of Royal Australian Navy sailors have graduated from the U.S. Navy’s nuclear power school in Charleston, S.C., the service announced this week."

Israel said apartment buildings in a Gaza refugee "camp" collapsed because so many Hamas tunnels that Israel hit underneath destabilized them. I also wonder how much of the concrete and reinforcing rods that should have been used for safe structures were diverted to terrorist tunnels. Israel has warned civilians to get out. And if Israel hit a military target, the strike was probably legal. But Hamas definitely committed a war crime by putting the military target there and interfering with civilian evacuation.

Good thought: "The mobility of a howitzer — its capacity to "shoot and scoot" — can make the difference between living to fight another day and being destroyed by the enemy. That's why the US Army is pondering whether hauling guns by truck is still a viable option." I warned about the vulnerability of non-armored systems some time ago. And the YouTube video is still active. Although Russia neglected to use what they knew about armored warfare in 2022.

Is Xi Jinping concealing Chinese weakness with bluster? Could be. But we shouldn't panic because of the bluster: "Among those [Australians] who want to appease Beijing, one of their arguments is about China’s military superiority and ability to defeat the US over Taiwan." I assume China's military isn't as good as its shiny new weapons advertise. But I worry because of our issues that China's flawed military is good enough to achieve victories close to their shores and deter America from crossing the ocean to roll them back. It's hard to say without the proving ground of combat. And I'd rather this all remain speculation that becomes moot as China's interests are diverted inland.

Broad Covid lockdowns failed to save many lives. And then you have to ask how many lives did the the effects of the lockdowns take. And then ask how much of the Covid money to cope with the lockdowns was unnecessary, contributing to our inflation now. Face it, like mask mandates, lockdowns were generally not needed. We could have counted on people deciding if the threat was great enough in their area and for them and their family to socially distance or wear a mask. Lockdowns and mask mandates should have been narrowly focused on protecting those most vulnerable. Tip to Instapundit.

Nobody admits what they need to foes.

It is not Israel's fault that Gaza is impoverished. Calling it a large open-air prison is insane. Hamas lives to slaughter Jews. Israel has no obligation to sustain that hate. Yet it did, with electricity, water, and jobs. Gaza's poverty on the beautiful Mediterranean coast is the fault of Palestinians who refuse to build a better life in favor of living in an outpost for killing Jews. The "siege" is in the minds of Palestinians. And don't pretend Israel has all the keys to Gaza. Egypt controls a heavily fortified border with Gaza. The entire Arab world could shovel aid into Gaza through the Gaza-Egypt border if it wanted to. But they don't want to.

I imagine this is in part because Russia has often held their tanks back to function in a fire support role: "Ukraine found IFVs armed with autocannon to be the most useful combat vehicles because the autocannon was more useful than a large tank gun." Immobilizing a tank for later destruction with a drone or precise artillery works as well as popping the turret off with the first hit with a big cannon.

And now for something completely different:

Interesting: "The Philippines on Tuesday vowed to protect its territory 'at all cost', a day after China’s military said it blocked a Philippine ship patrolling near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea." Is the Philippines willing to wage a tiny war and dare China to escalate?

If Western feminists had any integrity, they'd be calling Hamas terrorists--who rape and murder--the real manifestation of "toxic masculinity." So obviously (via Instapundit) "prominent" feminists do the opposite. A-holes. Every one of them. Jews dream of only being subject to micro-aggressions.

The world is sick when the haters are openly proud of their murderous hate. The world is in danger if societies don't crush the murderous haters who aspire to slaughter and torment many more. Sure, maybe you've thought I've been just horrible all these years since 9/11 saying we must kill jihadis. But I'm not horrible. I'm aware of the problem and I want to defend what is good from the evil that cannot be reasoned with. And "compromising" on how many they can kill to temporarily sate their blood lust is immoral. So yeah, the only good jihadi is a dead jihadi. And every jihadi we fail to kill this year is just one we'll have to kill next year--and one who will kill more of us while still running wild. I worry we are not ready for that reality at home.

Will Russia deploy theater nuclear weapons to Belarus, or not?

Jewish Lives Don't Matter (to the Left). Or Jewish Lives Splatter, I suppose. They're proud of their hate! These are the real "Deplorables."

Welp. Canada went crazy: "Rebel News reported last week the curious case of the Oct. 20 Richmond Hill Aquatic Centre's Fall Classic swimming competition outside of Toronto, in which Nicholas J. Cepeda, age 50, swam against 13 and 14-year-old girls. However, Cepeda likes to go by the name of Melody Wiseheart and identifies as a middle-school girl, so officials allowed him to compete." This goes well beyond harmless eccentricities like poutine or putting vinegar on french fries. Let's take away their hockey sticks and put them in a quiet room until we can figure out what the Hell is wrong with them. I mean, shouldn't the university that employs Cepeda fire him for lacking a child work permit? I'd let Canada remain free if they showed they had a pair of hockey pucks and called that freak out by making him live up to what he claims.

If terrorists had killed 30 Americans and kidnapped 10 without more than 1300 other murder victims and 200 other kidnap victims diluting that death toll, this would be a political crisis for Biden if he didn't go after the culprits, right? Oh who am I kidding? Did Obama ever try to kill the 2012 Benghazi terrorists? Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I don't think we ever did anything.

Greece believes peace requires the "strategic defeat" of Hamas. Greece sees Israel as a potential counter-weight to Greece's NATO frenemy, Turkey.

Israel rescued one of its soldiers from captivity in Gaza. Early stories shamefully implied Hamas "released" the soldier.

A call for the U.S. to draw a line to stop China's "gray zone" offensive in the South China Sea.

Is China poised to attack Taiwan? "Any war of choice for China would involve a consideration of the risks and rewards. For now, the risks for Xi far exceed the potential benefits." Yeah. But the risks and rewards aren't limited to the outcome of the attack.

If it is Islamophobic to want to destroy Hamas after witnessing the proudly proclaimed murderous depravity that Hamas Inflicted on Jews in Israel on October 7th, aren't the people making the Islamophobia claim saying that all Moslems are like Hamas? Isn't that the real hate? You can say I'm--justifiably--Hamasophobic. And I'm fine with that. We all should be. Hamas is evil.

This is nice reassurance: "The aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan began a port call in Manila, Philippines, on Saturday, a visit that comes amid tensions between China and the U.S. ally over territorial claims in the South China Sea." But I'd rather stop the Chinese before it escalates to Navy ships getting involved.

Ukraine will have a tough time meeting the challenges of waging war in 2024. At some level I find it inconceivable that Republicans would cut support for Ukraine and give Russia a victory. Are Republicans really going to do what Democrats did to South Vietnam? Do Republicans really want to lose Ukraine? And yeah, I keep using that word. Republicans shouldn't doom Ukraine just because Democrats are so oddly anti-Russian now. Just welcome them--belatedly--to the party.

Well that's great. I'm supposed to subsidize much wealthier people with student loans they don't want to pay and EVs they use to claim moral and scientific superiority. Thanks government.

How exciting and new! "All the Marines in Bravo Company, 1st Reconnaissance Battalion have been testing the electric motorcycles, said Capt. Jonathan Bender, Bravo Company commander." What could possibly go wrong?  Going too long without facing that kind of threat leads to dangerous ideas. And that's apart from enemies stringing wire across the jungle trails the bikes are intended to traverse.

When no-man's land is a free-fire zone: "The Ukrainian military has tested an artificial intelligence-based remote-controlled turret that can identify a target and fire bullets at it." It is intended for men and drones.

We had a failed ICBM test: "Last night's failure is concerning, but identifying issues with the Minuteman III and the nuclear command and control enterprise is why these tests occur." Not reassuring for deterrence.

Who's the biggest threat to the lives of Arabs and Moslems in general? Israel has a looong way to go to catch up in the body count. Face it, the shots calls are coming from inside the religion house.

Axis of Evil: "In a background briefing with local journalists — the contents of which were shared with the AP — the South Korean military detailed its suspicions that North Korea sent Russia an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles, anti-tank and portable anti-tank missiles, rocket launches, rifles, mortars and shells." Good news for South Korea, I suppose. A lot less ammo to bombard the greater Seoul region.

I'm hoping the White House focus on combating "Islamophobia" is for the purpose of buying time for Israel to smash Hamas. Lord knows the Easily Excitable need calming. And I like to think the Biden people are capable of learning from the error of their ways. I'm hopelessly optimistic, eh?

Consider how so many Westerners excuse Russia's attempt to destroy Ukraine by saying Russia's fear of militarily weak European NATO is real. Then consider how many Westerners believe Israel's attempt to destroy Hamas is unjust despite an actual Hamas terror invasion of Israel. Why do we hate us?

So that's where we left that planet.

Extending a war can cause more deaths than fighting intensely to restore peace faster. I've discussed this false compassion of moderating the conduct of war. Frankly, forcing Israel to "pause" its operations will actually increase casualties on both sides. Let Israel win. And then Palestinian little children won't be in the line of fire. It breaks my heart to see their anguish. This war isn't their fault any more than October 7th was the fault of the Israelis slaughtered by Hamas. But Hamas finds the little kids wrapped around their terrorists more protective than body armor. True compassion requires Israel to win sooner rather than later.

I hope we learned something from the city-killing rock we didn't see until it whizzed past the Earth. Deflecting them would be great. But in the short sun just spotting it would be sufficient. I mean, imagine if it had--out of nowhere--smashed into or near a city somewhere. What are the odds that the target would think its hated enemy just nuked it? Tip to Instapundit.

That does not surprise me: "American commandos on the ground in Israel are helping locate the more than 200 hostages seized during Hamas’ surprise cross-border attacks on Oct. 7, the Pentagon’s top special operations policy official said Tuesday." Normally I'd say their role stops there. But I bet Israel would like it if a rescue attempt for Americans held hostage by Hamas was conducted by American soldiers. As long as Israel has the final say on ordering the mission.

Germany is trying to save their faltering industrial sector by following Joe Biden's green industrial policy legislation, the "Inflation Reduction Act" (which would spark lawsuits if it fell under truth-in-advertising laws). Germany would do better to welcome all sources of energy rather than tying their economy to unreliable and expensive renewable energy sources.

That makes sense: "The United States has been flying surveillance drones over Gaza in search of hostages taken by Hamas when the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel on Oct. 7, two U.S. officials said on Thursday."

China has more territorial ambitions: "A Chinese warplane fired flares in front of a Canadian military helicopter over international waters of the South China Sea last Sunday, an operation that Canadian military officers said was reckless and could have resulted in the downing of the aircraft." China illegally claims almost all of the South China Sea as its territorial waters.

Strategypage discusses the Dutch replacement of their old submarine force that I mentioned earlier. 

Incorporating Finland in NATO: "For more than a year, Washington and Helsinki have been putting the finishing touches on the Defense Security Cooperation agreement, which specifies how and where American troops can maneuver in the new NATO member state." Good. No permanently based American forces are envisioned.

Great! "NASA will soon start testing what is dubbed as the world’s first commercial spaceplane capable of orbital flight, which will eventually be used to resupply the International Space Station." But dear God, don't make the ISS your business model. I don't think that will last much longer. Tip to Instapundit.

America's commercial jet engine technology sustains our military engine superiority: "This commercial aircraft engine domination supports the US domination of military jets. The high tech alloys and advanced enables the military jet engines to be more fuel efficient, reliable and higher performance." China is making progress, however. Hopefully the commercial angle sustains our edge. Assuming air power isn't nullified by more and more advanced ground-based air defenses.

Is Israel planning to bury alive the Hamas and other jihadi groups in their Gaza tunnels? I will say I've long said that Iran building deeper buried nuclear facilities risks all the personnel and scientists if the entrances and air shafts are destroyed.

I've wondered if a proxy war against Israel is a distraction to hide Iran's final drive for nuclear weapons. Is Iran still pursuing EMP weapons? Would anybody but Israel launch a nuclear strike if it was hit with Iranian EMPs that open up the country for a large-scale Hamas-style terror invasion? For a "final solution"? Or would the EMP pave the way for fission warheads?

With an eye on China: "The leaders of Japan and the Philippines agreed Friday to start negotiations for a key defense pact that would allow their troops to enter each other’s territory for joint military exercises." Japan is also providing military aid to the Philippines.

Why is it only important for Western societies to become more ethnically and religiously "diverse"? Why don't we demand other societies to become more diverse? I mean, it's an absolute good, right?

The war on terror indirectly caused 4.5 million deaths? Oooh, that methodology is fun! The sky's the limit for blaming America! Now do the indirect deaths caused by the Islamist strain of religion that keeps countries poor, violently intolerant, and brutally autocratic. I wonder how many orders of magnitude greater that number would be? We have too many academics.

America announced additional military aid to Ukraine. It is mostly ammunition.

I've mentioned that I think the rules of war can help your soldiers cope with what war requires by assuring them they've fought under the rules even when civilians die in the crossfire (including allowing civilians back home to view war veterans that way). The Russians have a different attitude--kill everyone, including your own insufficiently warrior-like troops. And walk off that spurting artery, comrade! Corruption throughout the military and government doesn't help. That might "work" when you assume your troops die and only the less psychologically damaged survivors at the very end come home. But how is Russia going to cope with unleashing so many of these men taught to treat life cheap into the civilian world?

There is more talk in the West of a two-state solution for the Palestinian issue. Just one problem: "But it has no connection to contemporary realities. At best, the idea of two states has become, once again, an idea long ahead of its time." I agree. The author seems to say that Israel will win conflicts until it catastrophically loses. Is a final solution rather than a two-state solution inevitable?  But maybe we can do something to one day make a two-state solution within its time. That may be the best post-war strategy for building a better Gaza that preserves broader Arab-Israeli peace progress.

Get off this rock: "Norway inaugurated its northern Andøya spaceport Thursday as commercial launch competition on continental Europe heats up." Tip to Instapundit.

I don't know why he is saying the right thing. But good: "Arab leaders decrying the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians in the Israel-Hamas war pushed for an immediate cease-fire Saturday even as U.S. Secretary of State warned that such a move would be counterproductive and could encourage more violence by the militant group." I wonder if the Arab leaders believe what they publicly asked for.

Israel and Hezbollah skirmish along the Israeli border with Lebanon after Hezbollah publicly declined to help Hamas. Hezbollah is apparently willing to keep Israel busy. But they probably know what Israel would have to do to Hezbollah if they unleash their rocket arsenal.

Don't be silly, not even close to an insurrection.

When we want to do this we have to deploy and infiltrate special forces: "More than 100 protesters descended on the Port of Oakland in an attempt to stop a cargo ship which they said was carrying weapons bound for Israel." Via Instapundit.

Russia denies its war against Ukraine is more than a "special military operation," but its military budget says otherwise: "By spending so much on military production and social welfare, Russia expects to maintain popular support for the war effort. The problem is that Russia does not have enough income to sustain a wartime economy. Spending too much on defense was a major reason why the Soviet Union went bankrupt and collapsed in 1991."

I think it is ridiculous to control how we translate their name into our language. Naturally the State Department agreed to the request: "In June 2022, the United Nations agreed to change the spelling of the country known in the English-speaking world as Turkey to Türkiye, heeding a request by the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan." I've noticed and wondered about that word change. Whatever. Call yourself "Debbie" for all I care. I'm not going to use a smiley face emoji in place of the "u" to sustain Erdogan's brand of "soft" (or is it just stage 1?) Islamist nationalism. I still call the capital of China "Peking".

Via Instapundit, China is dumping U.S. Treasury holdings to prop up their currency? It would also drive up bond interest rates. If China is selling, who is buying? And at what level does it constitute economic warfare on America? Or is reducing it now erasing an ability to dump it all at once for a big shock? Really outside my lane.

Again, don't forget that American communists (look for the ANSWER participants and the black and yellow signs--and of course, look for the Antifa fascists) are extremely active in the pro-Hamas demonstrations. This is part of their "popular front" strategy of jumping in front of what they hope is a mass movement parade in order to lead it toward their own goals of harming America and leading to their rise to total power. The useful idiots that march with the communists are often evil--perhaps more now than in the past.

One can hope: "Whatever else it accomplished, the murderous attacks perpetrated by Hamas tore the mask off the “poor, suffering Palestinians” and revealed the entire operation as the bloodthirsty, anti-civilizational impulse we have long known it to be. For that, at least, we must be grateful for this excruciating moment of clarity." I fear the sainted international community has more tolerance and more love for this kind of bloodthirsty evil than we can imagine. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm going to take a shot at explaining to Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Kremlin) how you do what he wants Israel to do: "When pressed by host Dana Bash on how it was possible to destroy Hamas without inflicting some level of civilian casualties, Sanders said military experts would be needed to explain that." Nobody can. And it is even harder with an enemy like Hamas that uses human shields. Maybe Sanders should send those experts to Hamas to explain how they might fight Israel without raping women and slaughtering children and old people. What an a-hole.