Is Ukraine doomed because its counteroffensive did not immediately collapse the Russian ground forces?
I really get tired of conservatives saying that the war in Ukraine must be ended with Russia controlling what it has conquered since 2014. And that this kind of a deal could have been struck early in the war, avoiding all the death and destruction since then:
Russia, so the argument goes, can hold its defensive lines indefinitely because its resources are greater than Ukraine’s.
Hence, a long-lasting war of attrition is unwinnable for Ukraine—as well as, possibly, for Russia.
Since stalemate is unavoidable, negotiations should begin sooner rather than later. Neither side may get what it wants, but at least fewer lives will be lost.
Ukraine rejects that logic. Russia seems to be quietly nodding in approval.
I understand conservative frustration that Democrats seemingly own more Ukrainian than American flags.
But speaking as an old Cold War advocate of defeating the Soviet Union who faced his fair share of Democratic hostility for wanting what Democrats want now, I say conservatives should say, "Welcome to the party, pal."
But I digress, as I can.
One, accepting Russian conquests as a basis of a deal rewards
Russian aggression. We'll get more.
Two, Russia would have retained a lot more land at a lot lower cost depending on when that hypothetical deal had been struck. Russian gains without sufficient casualties and economic pain will mean the "peace" will absolutely be a period of Russia reloading to resume the war.
And four, Ukraine could still win. Russia is projecting strength even
as it is weakening. We might be shocked by a sudden collapse of a Russian army's will to fight. Ukrainian military leadership stated they believe they've pushed through the toughest defenses in the south. It seems odd to highlight Ukraine's intent. Does Ukraine have something else up their sleeve? Could the Kherson front shrouded in inattention get active as Russia thins out its defenders to points further east? Or is Ukraine trying to settle Western supporters by accurately describing their intent to buy more time for Ukraine to attack?
Will Russia weaken enough--with their ground forces, economy, or elite resolve cracking--to lose the war before the West gives up helping Ukraine?
The fact that we are now wondering if the West will keep helping Ukraine is in part because of the slowness of deciding to help Ukraine and then the slowness to get that help to Ukraine. Sure, it is good that the West will provide F-16s to Ukraine. But:
It is the same sad story that we have witnessed with tanks, air-defense systems, precision ammunition, and other weapons. While Western countries dithered, Russia laid minefields, and Ukrainians died.
When you start to take Vienna, take Vienna. We're risking our chance to take Vienna.
I still think there is a good chance that Russian troop morale will crack in the south and open up an opportunity for Ukraine to break out and push to the sea. But time is running out for Ukraine's patient fight focusing on reducing Russian support for their frontline troops.
UPDATE (Tuesday): I hope Republicans are raising issues as leverage on other issues rather than seriously opposing aid to Ukraine. Come on, guys. And most annoying is the revival of demanding an "exit strategy". That has long driven me nuts:
Not wanting to repeat our experience in Vietnam, many speak of needing an "exit strategy" before committing troops. Such an approach seeks to minimize our losses under the assumption that we will at some point lose, so we had better know when to cut our losses and get out. It also assumes that the situation allows for an exit and that our enemy will allow it. The Iraqis desperately waned out of the war they initiated in 1980 but were locked by Iran in a death grip that allowed for no easy exit. While planning for a tough resilient enemy is prudent, we must never become paralyzed by concentrating on how that enemy can hurt us. We need to keep our focus on achieving victory.
And it is an "exit plan" for money--which is a tiny fraction of BS domestic spending on "clean" energy subsidies--and not even for our troops!
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
