How many people walking around in the Kremlin have said of their 2022 invasion, "It seemed like a good idea at the time"?
Russia pointed China at America and its western Pacific allies. And while Russia and China remained frenemes, Russia could build up and hopefully be in a better position to face both America and China, who might actually tear each other up. Instead, Russia is tearing itself up in the west against Ukraine. And NATO forces aren't even in combat.
I suspect Russia wanted a short and glorious war in Ukraine to push NATO off balance in order to pivot to Asia to protect their Far East after a 25-year period of appeasing China.
It remains to be seen if Russia will react to failure to get their rapid, easy victory in the west by deciding to continue their odd hostility toward NATO while leaving their Far East territory--and Central Asian influence, too--open to Chinese economic and military pressure.
And in bonus territory, Russia demonized a potential ally to protect their Far East even as its army is bogged down in a needless war against Ukraine that frightens NATO into rearming:
Russia decided this year to declare Sept 3 - the day after Japan’s surrender in World War Two - a “Day of Victory over Militaristic Japan”, spurring a protest from Tokyo.Maybe the Winter War of 2022 will prove to be a major whack with the clue bat that Russia desperately needs. Maybe Russia will react to defeat by coming to a deal with NATO that allows Russia to pivot to Asia to defend their influence in Central Asia and to defend their territory from now-dormant Chinese claims to large sections of the Russian Far East.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
