The Winter War of 2022 Passes Judgment on Russian Army Reforms

Russia's ground forces with their multiple organizations (called the "army" here for shorthand) was reformed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was never as glorious as it was portrayed. But it only has to be good enough to provide a victory. That ultimate judgment has yet to be made.

This author writes that Russia has a large crappy army and a small good one. The latter was supposed to  only conduct small wars:

In some ways, two Russian armies invaded Ukraine: one a small, professionalized, and modernized force with experience in smaller, lower-intensity conflicts; the other, a larger, primarily conscript force with little operational experience. The defining characteristic of Russia’s first year of war in Ukraine was the destruction of that first army outside of Kyiv and in the vicinity of Kharkiv and Kherson. The future of the second army remains in question.

Well, sort of. Depending on how you define "small, professionalized, and modernized". I guess I'd say "adequate." The over-rated BTG was designed for the small wars. And in this post I added another flaw of the BTG I did not appreciate (and I really should have before it was pointed out). 

Russia certainly started to build an army that could defeat Ukraine. But it did not succeed. 

I did not buy the hype Putin spread to so many in the West, especially after the Crimea takeover. 

But I admit that Russia is seemingly muddling through their invasion despite low morale, high casualties, and internal Russian drama. Which is actually impressive. It may be enough. And the Russians seem a little more aggressive on the ground in the east.

I still think Ukraine has the edge. We may just not see it. But Ukraine needs to accomplish something significant with that edge while it has it--and while the West is willing to arm it.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Hmmm:

The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.

UPDATE (Thursday): Some backpedaling. U.S. says this still may be shaping operations.

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.