What Would a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Look Like?

I think China will try to win as fast as possible if it invades Taiwan. And yes, you'll have to check the Definitions Section under "W" for this.

Retired Admiral Stavridis describes what he thinks a Chinese-initiated war over Taiwan would look like.

--He thinks it would start with a naval encirclement of Taiwan.

--An aerial assault on Taiwanese air defenses would be carried out.

--A broad cyberattack on military and civilian targets.

So far, so good.

--At that point, he thinks the Chinese would pause to assess Taiwanese willingness to fight and see if America will intervene. And also, a reason to "temporarily hold back is to assess the extent of the damage to the island’s infrastructure — after all, the objective would be to gain full control over Taiwan, not to destroy it."

But that's where he stops. He does not offer any notion of what the invasion would look like if China judges it is safe to proceed. Presumably that is the point of the pause to watch Taiwan and America.

I don't think this assessment is of much value.

My view is that the Chinese want to win as fast as they can in order to make American intervention moot. Present America with a fait accompli and America will say words--but take the "L".

So pausing to see if America is coming would be counter-productive. 

Pausing to give Taiwan time to recover from the shock of the initial assaults, mobilize, and deploy would be foolish.

Further, I don't think China cares one whit about maintaining the infrastructure of Taiwan. The point is bringing Taiwan back into China. Have we not seen what Russia thinks of avoiding the destruction of Ukraine's infrastructure to reunite it with Mother Russia? I think a China of over a billion people can afford to replace destroyed key (needed to exert control) infrastructure for a country of 25 million. So no pause to assess.

A naval encirclement? You bet! That could delay the U.S. Navy with a tempting SINKEX.

I go on further in my invasion scenario that holds up pretty well, I think, given it is 18 years old.

I think special forces, direct-action spies, infiltrated light forces, airborne and airliftable forces, limited amphibious operations, and a lot of assaults on Taiwan's ports with PLA Army troops carried by Chinese Coast Guard and civilian vessels would be the means of getting ashore. 

The Chinese objective would be Taipei, going for the jugular with both airborne and air mobile forces and the smaller amphibious force:

China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.

One thing I still hold is that China does not plan an invasion over Taiwan's limited beaches. If China planned D-Day 2.0, China would have built up its marine force and amphibious lift to do that. Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests. If those forces were needed, China would have far more by now. 

If Taiwan's forces collapse under the rapid assault and the view of America not arriving as fast as hoped, China will collect the full and obvious win.

But if not, China will offer a ceasefire gratefully accepted by the West. And build up for round two in a year. Or maybe ten. But it will come. That's in the Definitions Section for "Win":

I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.

I'm not sure that kind of limited but decisive victory can be deterred. I think that threat has to be defeated in battle.

And if that threat is not defeated, Taiwan will fall. Could America fill that gap in the wall holding back China's navy? The Marines might have to dismantle those then-nearly useless MLRs and rebuild assault forces to return to Taiwan one day.

Also, this isn't quite right: 

The key to staving off a Chinese invasion is deterrence through military strength[.]

Losing to China is the worst outcome. Defeating China's invasion is the third-best outcome. But deterring China is only the second-best outcome:

Surely we want to deter China. And if that fails, defeat China in war. There is a better goal: 

No, defeating China makes the best of the worst case and deterring China makes the best of the second worst case. We need to shovel the Snow back north. We need to play the Great Game in Asia to achieve our best case--a China pointed away from the south--Taiwan and the United States and our other allies--and pointed toward the north and the interior of Asia.

Distract China inland. Now that's a long-term plan that even the Chinese of our imagination would envy. 

UPDATE: China is closely looking at Russia's experience with helicopters in the invasion of Ukraine. Why? 

Over the last 20 years China has invested in building up a massive force of modern military helicopters. Chinese sources explicitly state such forces "were largely designed around cross-sea flight operations" – namely for the Taiwan scenario.

If you have a giant amphibious platform 100 miles away (China itself), you have options other than big deck amphibious ships to move your helicopters close to the target, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.