Has Russia forfeited its former Central Asian possessions because of its bloody attempt to take ground in its former Ukrainian possessions?
China prepares to make its big move:
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his congratulatory Nowruz message on March 21 to Tajikistani President Emomali Rahmon, announced that China was preparing a “grandiose plan” for upgrading relations with Central Asia, stating, “The new plan will be presented at the first China–Central Asia summit in Xian in May.” Xi also sent a similar message to Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Vzglyad, March 28).
While Russian influence in the post-Soviet Central Asian states continues to decline overall as a consequence of its misadventures in Ukraine, the region remains a critical source of hydrocarbons as well as a critical transit point for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative in supporting China’s rising economic interests there. This in turn has caused Beijing and Moscow to tussle covertly to increase their own regional hegemony at the expense of the other.
Although this diplomatic kerfuffle will help Russia a bit. Even if the ambassador wasn't telegraphing China's intent to take over Central Asia.
And if China pushes Russia out of Central Asia, Moscow loses its pivot point to the Far East:
Without a secure Central Asia, Russia's ability to project and sustain military power in the Far East is put at risk.
Say, what's Kazakhstan doing, anyway? Although it's so cute that the article suggests the EU can have an effect on the battle between China and Russia.
And we all know that the Russian Far East is the location of the biggest Chinese territorial humiliation from the Century of Humiliation.
When a vassal is useless as an asset, you might as well break it up for parts, eh?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
