Is Russia scaling back the once-great Northern Fleet to focus on defending the best and most survivable nuclear missiles Russia has? I actually want that to work.
Russia this year will likely step up its presence in the Barents Sea and the Atlantic Ocean while lengthening its submarine deployments, according to a new Norwegian intelligence report. ...
The Northern Fleet is made up of 26 submarines, 10 surface combatant ships, 16 patrol and coastal vessels, eight mine warfare/mine countermeasure ships, and eight amphibious platforms, plus fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft and air defense systems, according to the 2023 Military Balance report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Russian Defence Ministry says the fleet has six ballistic missile submarines in service, and one is under repair while three more are under construction. There are also four cruise missile submarines, plus three under construction, per the ministry.
How does this fit in with the apparent Russian demotion of the Northern Fleet last year?
Front and center of the new [Russian maritime doctrine] document, published July 31, is the Kremlin’s declaration that the US and NATO are among the “main challenges and threats to national security and sustainable development of the Russian Federation” with respect to the seas. It also indicates Russia will refocus its priorities from the Northern Fleet and North Atlantic to its Pacific Fleet, said Troy Bouffard, director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.As I've noted, Russia may need their Pacific fleet to defend against China, notwithstanding any stated concerns about America and Japan. But the Northern Fleet still has the most important duty of all with those ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
But back to the first article:
“Because the importance of nuclear weapons and strategic deterrence forces is increasing, the Northern Fleet’s defense of the military bases on Kola, the northern bastion and the Barents Sea will also become more important,” the agency wrote.
I suspect the Russians have come to terms with the priorities for their dwindling fleet. The increased activity--under a fleet promoted to military district status--is solely about the SSBNs and SSNs protecting them:
I assume this is administrative upgrade is primarily to protect Russia's nuclear deterrent force. Everything else up there is secondary. Russia needs to defend a Barents Sea--and perhaps beyond--bastion in which its nuclear ballistic submarines can safely sail, to make sure that even if Russia's land-based nukes are wiped out in a first strike that Russia can retaliate.
Don't forget that I have serious doubts about the Russian land-based ICBM force. I suspect a lot just don't work. They may provide the illusion of a super power nuclear arsenal even though Russia's nukes that work might be more on par with the British or French nuclear deterrents.
Russian attack submarine patrols into the Atlantic would be more of a forward picket line of the bastion than the vanguard of a anti-shipping campaign.
I actually want this to work. The Russians are paranoid enough without thinking their nuclear deterrent is weak and vulnerable. America has no interest in destroying Russia or taking out its nukes in a preemptive strike. Russia needed their nukes to defend their land border even before throwing their ground forces into the Ukraine meat grinder.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
