Putin is determined to defeat Ukraine. Can the West negotiate with the Russians to truly end the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Not on whatever planet Putin inhabits.
Russia has committed its ground forces to the offensive again. While not yet all-out, it may be premature. Will Westerners jump the gun trying to get negotiations going that will ratify Russia's gains?
It would be a massive failure of Western diplomacy to negotiate with the Russians for Ukraine:
Lavrov’s and Putin’s statements are indicative of ongoing Russian information operations that aim to reject Ukraine’s sovereignty and delegitimize Kyiv’s right to negotiate, shifting the onus for negotiations onto Western officials, whom the Kremlin believes to be more willing to offer concessions that Ukraine could not accept and could seek to compel Ukrainian officials to negotiate on terms more favorable to Russia.
Russia and Ukraine have to make the deal directly with each other for it to
last. The West can provide guarantees. But it cannot negotiate with Russia for Ukraine.
If the West negotiates with Russia, Ukrainians won't see it as a
legitimate deal; and the Russians will have their view that Ukraine is
not a legitimate political entity ratified by the West. Either result guarantees that both arm up for another round of war. But at a higher level of armament and initial intensity.
We cut out the Afghanistan government to negotiate directly with the Taliban. And we see how well that worked out.
And when you spin your plans for how diplomacy can save us from nuclear war, don't forget that the Russians are several fries short of a Happy Meal.
I mean, how can anyone negotiate with Putin, as he made clear early in the month?
Putin now says his war in Ukraine is a war and one that must be one to rescue Russia from Western efforts to destroy Russia as a country. While many Eastern Europeans considered that a fine idea, it was also seen as impractical and never seriously considered by any European government. To deal with that reality, Putin describes the Western effort as unpublished in the West and part of a very real conspiracy that Vladimir Putin recognized and is now exposing.
Good grief. How long before Putin is sporting a tinfoil cap with tail fins?
I mean, the fact that Russia is issuing nuclear threats not to protect Russia from invasion but as a means to ratify their invasion and conquest of Ukraine should make that obvious. Russia will simply issue nuclear threats for something else if he gets away with this threat.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
To be clear, Russia threatens nuclear war if Russia loses on the battlefield inside Ukraine. And we've also seen Russian claims that NATO is trying to commit genocide on Russia.
To sum up: Russia has to conquer Ukraine to avoid NATO's genocidal
goals. And if Russia can't defeat Ukraine it will unleash nuclear
Armageddon. That's quite the rational peace partner.
And if you don't realize this basic problem, I don't want any of your advice on ending the war with a magical diplomatic deal.
Putin has made it clear he wants no deal that truly ends this war in any meaningful way. Russia resumed a large conventional offensive in the east. It may end up having all the subtlety of a bulldozer, but it will be large and loud. And Russia may have learned some lessons to enable its forces to push forward.
Don't panic. Don't think that saving Ukraine requires selling them out by going over their heads to cut a deal with the Russians.
Ukraine needs weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence now. Ideally, Ukraine bleeds and slows the Russian ground forces down until the offensive falters and Ukraine can mount a counteroffensive somewhere to break a Russian army in the field.
But for now, Russia has the initiative.
UPDATE: ISW discusses Russian information operations to divide the west from Ukraine.
UPDATE: Russia appears to have struck a bridge at Odessa with a suicide USV.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia's offensive seems to have ramped up at Bakhmut.
UPDATE (Thursday): General Milley is already calling in the Diplomacy Fairy:
Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, and he believes the war will end at the negotiating table.
FFS. I truly have lost confidence in his ability to lead. Perhaps it is unfair. But I truly have no confidence in him after the last 2-3 years.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
