I love Thucydides. But Taiwan does not rhyme with Sicily and neither America nor China rhyme with Athens.
The Sicilian Expedition was an Athenian mistake in attacking the distant trading partners of Sparta, which was Athens' active enemy. Compounded by Athenian mistakes that forfeited an opportunity for victory in an admittedly unnecessary military operation. Although an unnecessary victory would have been superior to the massive defeat Athens suffered.
So I don't buy this analogy as an argument against China invading Taiwan.
... the story of the Sicilian Expedition shares enough fundamentals with the current Taiwan situation to provide useful points of caution both to China and to the U.S. It is simply difficult to project force onto a rugged island inhabited by the rich, the well-armed, and the hostile. Efforts to do so will certainly meet with difficulty, sometimes with catastrophe.
But if you want to caution China about invading and reassure America that helping Taiwan resist is unneeded because of the weight of Athenian history, you may want to recall that Sparta took advantage of Athens' stumbles to intervene (with its allies) and create a decisive Athenian defeat.
So American intervention is actually required to rhyme with that ancient history when it comes to lessons for China.
Say, here's an example of invading a rugged coast resulting in victory--even when Westerners intervene.
To dissuade the Chinese from invading, a better historical analogy for China might be either the British blockade of Germany in World War I or the American submarine campaign against Japan in World War II.
As for American lessons, I certainly don't assume we would win a war for Taiwan. But I'm worried we are playing with the definitions to say we would win. I don't want to fool ourselves that all is well.
And I certainly know our logistics in the area need to be much better to think about sustained fighting around Taiwan. Because I think the British defeat at Singapore in 1942 is a better analogy for warning against America defending too far forward with insufficient power.
Taiwan is currently China's most core of core interests. We have to deal with that threat for our interests. Still, fighting China over Taiwan is my third preference. And maybe China sees problems and opportunities that lower Taiwan as a priority.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
