Is Putin as secure in power as he portrays? Are some Westerners determined to save him?
Despite a series of blunders, miscalculations, and battlefield reversals that would have surely seen him thrown out of office in most normal countries, President Vladimir Putin is still at the pinnacle of power in Russia. He continues to define the contours of his country’s war against Ukraine. He is micromanaging the invasion even as generals beneath him appear to be in charge of the battlefield. (This deputizing is done to protect him from blowback if something goes badly wrong in the war.) ...
The war has revealed the full extent of Putin’s personalized political system. After what is now 23 years at the helm of the Russian state, there are no obvious checks on his power. Institutions beyond the Kremlin count for little. ...
What is clear is this: after more than two decades in power, Putin is practiced at playing people, groups, and countries against one another and using their weaknesses to his advantage.
At the very end of the piece, a caveat is offered that things can change, even for Putin. But the rest of the article focuses on Putin's control. That's what I get out of the analysis--not the figurative footnote.
The failure of Russia's army to quickly crush Ukraine as promised will harm Putin in the high-stakes game of Russian politics even if he manages to defeat Ukraine's army and "only" have to shift to a counter-insurgency campaign.
And to put the tasty stupid icing on the tasty stupid cake, Putin is alienating the West even as Putin wrecks his military with a still rising China looming over Russia's Far East--which was taken from China in the 19th century.
Bravo.
Seriously, Russia under Putin is Russia's worst enemy.
I wonder when the naturally paranoid Russian society will turn their suspicious gaze on Putin himself.
Until now I've had little hope Putin could fall and end the war. But if
these stories about how indispensable Putin is in the Russian system are a reflection of conventional wisdom, I have to doubt the conventional wisdom. What if Russians around Putin conclude that the war against Ukraine is far more about Putin's survival than it is about Russia's survival?
If one person shot Putin, would a political structure so reliant on Putin's word be able to organize itself in defense of Putinism without Putin? Would that structure be so desperate for orders--and order--that it would accept any reasonable official who stands up and says he saved Russia from Putin's folly and is in charge--and will hold Russia together?
That's the risk of such a highly centralized and personalized political structure under intense pressure, isn't it?
Should Western diplomacy and information operations focus on blaming Putin for the war and promoting his removal as the route to peace? That would give Russians an escape valve by making Putin the primary scapegoat when things go undeniably bad.
Still, Putin has friends in the West who want to save him from his war and from those in Russia who might want to end that problem. France's Macron says he wants Russia defeated in battle to pursue diplomacy--but not crushed. Ah, nuance.
The pursuit of that kind of finely balanced outcome is sheer folly. It invites Russia to achieve victory. You remember how our honorary French diplomat tried to do that in Syria, right? Ask Assad if it worked.
The time for nuance is only possible after battlefield victory. Otherwise you risk nuancing
your way into an enemy too simplistic to pursue anything other than
victory. It is highly comforting to a foe that you aren't trying to destroy their military forces.
See also, Afghanistan where America pretended the Taliban were a peace partner who wouldn't take advantage of America's retreat and abandonment of our local allies.
Russia lies a lot about a lot of things. Why would reports of Putin's hold on power be any different?
UPDATE: This is a major problem, if accurate:
Vladimir Putin says he learned from his boyhood brawls in his native St. Petersburg: “If you want to win a fight, you have to carry it through to the end, as if it were the most decisive battle of your life.” ...
But so far, Putin’s gamble in invading his smaller and weaker neighbor seems to have backfired spectacularly and created the biggest threat to his more than two-decade-long rule.
Not only can the West not negotiate with a ruler like Putin, but Russians can't bargain with him. If Putin is determined to take Russia on a Viking funeral ride, when will someone in Russia decide Putin has to go?
UPDATE: And if Putin does win? Look out.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
