Please make the stupid stop. America absolutely needs to defend Europe.
The Ukraine war does not prove Europe is capable of defending itself.
The threat of Russia overrunning and dominating Europe—the fear that led Cold War strategists to keep U.S. forces in Europe—is inconceivable today. U.S. policymakers should avoid threat inflation and seek a more equitable relationship with prosperous European allies. Adhering to a policy out of habit rather than adapting it to conform to reality is folly. The United States has served as Europe’s primary defender for over seven decades. It is high time that Europe provides for its own defense. If the largest war in Europe since the Second World War does not prompt that change, what will?
This analysis is pure idiocy, in my opinion. A Europe left to is own defenses is too risky given the importance of Europe to our economy and national security.
One, that judgment about sufficient European power applies to a Russian all-out drive to the Rhine River trying to overrun Europe. I readily concede that Europe could eventually stop a Russian drive well short of that, given how far east Russia has been pushed. But what then? Is a Europe plunged into war really a good thing? Just a war in Ukraine is harming the world, including America.
Two, the threat should not be judged solely on whether Russia could overrun Europe in a single campaign. When the USSR sat in East Germany, a short drive to the Rhine River would have shattered NATO. It took centuries for Moscow to reach East Germany. Russia could pick off smaller targets than Ukraine and hold them off with nuclear threats if America isn't there to organize the fractured European military efforts. Lather, rinse, repeat--and grow relatively stronger.
Three, Russia's military can get stronger. Don't assume Russia must always be as weak as it is now.
Four, Europe is an objective as well as an ally. America has interests in protecting Europe even if Europe disarmed.
Five, we should not want a united Europe capable of organizing its fractured military power. The divisions are a feature and not a bug. Don't assume our friends would control the united military of Europe.
Six, if you think America shouldn't need nearly as much military power to defend Europe from Russia compared to when the threat was the USSR, well ... mission accomplished!
At the height of the Cold War America had lots of troops in Europe with large numbers of tanks, artillery, and aircraft. In the seas around Europe, the American Navy roamed to contain the Soviet navy and keep lines of supply from North America to Europe intact. America's troop level in Europe--even with enhancements to reassure NATO allies while Russia is at war with Ukraine--is a tiny fraction of Cold War commitments. Compare the 100,000+ American troops in Europe now--up from 80,000 in the month before Russia invaded this year--to the 450,000+ Americans in Europe in 1959, the peak year of troop strength there.
And seven, why do so many so-called strategists seem to think even a
small commitment of American power is too much to defend a victory? Maybe Ukraine's resistance shows what even a small American presence in Europe can achieve indirectly to keep the Russians at bay. American military support has been the most important by volume, easily. Maybe the Russian invasion of Ukraine proves that America is in fact crucial to keeping the peace in Europe because Russia will free to strike where America isn't.
Blood and steel have returned to Europe. A
relatively small American commitment to NATO puts together the pieces of European
power as an ally and reduces the risk of a Russian or EU threat to
Europe. This is not the time to pretend we have no need to protect what we've won over the last century in Europe.
Being penny wise and pound foolish is not grand strategy.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
