Has an Iranian woman lit the fuse to blow up the mullah regime?
Strategypage (short audio from Strategytalk) thinks this Iranian protests sparked by the Iranian regime killing of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who committed the unforgivable crime of refusing to cover her hair is different and could be big.
The people at ISW seem to think this is not going away soon:
The regime is escalating its protest crackdown in a way that could fuel an enduring and increasingly violent uprising against the political establishment.
Iran's mullahs seem to feel the need to frighten as well as kill:
Iranian authorities announced on Monday they will hold public trials for 1,000 people in the capital, Tehran, over the protests that have convulsed the country.
Such a public display of regime power seems like a sign of regime worry rather than of power. If resistance is strong enough to make the regime highlight it rather than minimize it, the resistance must be significant, no?
Are the people of Iran willing to fight and die? Are they willing to face prison and torture?
Are enough of the regime bully boys available and willing to kill and torture to preserve their corrupt masters? Or will some walk away or even side with the protesters?
Will the ruling elite break ranks and provide a voice for the protesters against the mullah regime?
And will the Biden administration, which bizarrely loves the mullah regime, at least refuse to rescue the mullahs in the hopes of getting yet another ineffective nuclear deal?
It will be interesting to see if Iran starts flying its militias from Syria back home, along with some Hezbollah thugs from Lebanon. Bringing in their hired guns from Afghanistan or Iraq can be done with less fanfare, of course.
I've gotten my hopes up before. So I assume nothing. But there are reasons to think this could be different.
Or the regime might be strong enough to kill its way through even widespread and violent public anger to keep its power intact.
Fingers crossed. A lot of our problems will be eased if the mullah regime falls. We don't need kite-flying democracy. Even a run-of-the-mill autocrat will be superior to the Shia Islamist regime in Tehran. Do recall that even Iraq's post-Saddam imperfect democracy in a corrupt country helps kill jihadis and doesn't pursue--or use--weapons of mass destruction.
UPDATE: Fingers crossed:
Pessimists caution that mass protests have rocked Iran’s theocracy before, notably in 2009 and 2019, and the regime has always snuffed them out by shooting, torturing and censoring. Yet there are reasons to think that this time may be different; that the foundations of the Islamic Republic really are wobbling.
Iranians have been raging in the streets since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was arrested by Mr Khamenei’s “morality police” for the crime of failing to cover every last strand of her hair. Such protests require courage, given the regime’s readiness to lock up and rape protesters. Yet they have lasted for weeks. And whereas the fury of 2009 was largely urban and middle-class, after an election was stolen from a somewhat reformist candidate, and that of 2019 was more working-class, sparked by a sudden leap in petrol prices, today’s protests have erupted all across the country, involving every ethnic group and people from all walks of life.
And the Iranian protesters are seemingly demanding all the marbles--the end of the mullah regime--rather than specific grievances. The fact that a wide spectrum of Iranian society can unite around that goal when they couldn't from specific grievances may be significant, no?
UPDATE: If the Iranians are thinking they need to start a war to rally people to the regime's side, the situation may be really bad for the mullahs (tip to Instapundit):
Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom, putting the American military and others in the Middle East on an elevated alert level, Saudi and U.S. officials said.
In response to the warning, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and several other neighboring states have raised the level of alert for their military forces, the officials said. They didn’t provide more details on the Saudi intelligence.
Remember, the mullahs don't have to be correct about rallying the people. The mullahs just have to believe a foreign crisis will rally the people.
Funny enough, an Iranian attack might persuade the Saudis to expand oil production.
UPDATE: I've long felt that Iran provoked a clash with the United States in the Persian Gulf in 1988 in a failed attempt to rally the Iranian people who had finally gotten sick of the slaughter fighting Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War. Is this a repeat? Check ammo and double the guards, I say.
UPDATE (Wednesday): ISW reports:
Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that the regime flew around 150 personnel from Kataib Hezbollah and other Iraqi proxies from Baghdad to Mashhad on October 31 to support the protest crackdown.[40] Kataib Hezbollah is one of Iran’s most loyal and well-equipped militias in Iraq. Israeli media similarly reported on October 16 that the IRGC is using members of Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi proxies to suppress protests in Iran.[41] CTP cannot verify these reports and has not seen evidence to corroborate these claims.
Interesting. I should have noted that ISW is providing updates on the Iran protests.
UPDATE: Are Iranian protesters losing their fear of death because defeating the mullah regime is so important? If enough feel that way, it could be a problem for the regime. Depending on how many of the security forces are willing to kill the protesters compared to how many side with the protesters.
UPDATE (Thursday): Iranian protesters fought back against regime security forces.
UPDATE (Saturday): A sign that protests are shifting to revolution?
Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring their children’s rhetoric.If so, may the mullah regime be as fragile as the Shah's was when confronted with the need to defeat rather than suppress opposition.
NOTE: War updates continue here.
