Sure: "The Biden administration plans to continue nuclear negotiations with Iran despite the nation's crackdown on protesters who have demonstrated in recent days following the death of a woman in police custody." Apparently, 41 are dead already. Biden probably figures if he helps Iran suppress dissent, the mullahs will be grateful. And also, Democrats loooove the mullahs. Tip to Instapundit.
Ah, crap. My deepest sympathies to the Russians.
How Russia equipped Ukraine with a lot of its abandoned armored vehicles. Also, controlling the battlefields didn't help Russia repair lost tanks because so many were catastrophic, turret-launching losses. This weakness in Russian tanks is only fully exploited by top-attack missiles, apparently. I did not know that. It is interesting that Strategypage thinks over 50,000 Russian troops have been killed in action. Is that true?
What does Armenia do when its protector, Russia, is too busy getting its ass kicked in Ukraine to protect it? And Russia is looking to Armenia's enemy, Azerbaijan, to help Russia's economy because of its Ukraine invasion. Armenia is in deep trouble without a radical rethink of its defense ties.
I've heard that if Russia uses "tactical" nukes inside Ukraine that NATO air forces might respond with conventional weapons to really tear up the Russian ground forces inside Ukraine. Might it be better to get former NATO F-16 pilots and maintainers to fly a Flying Tigers-type air force with donated NATO F-16s and weapons from inside Ukraine?
What a dinosaur! '''Lethality matters most,' he said. 'When you can kill your enemy, every
part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is
stronger,' Minihan said." The general probably doesn't even know how to use the expanding plethora of pronouns!
I'm worried about the Air Force.
So the Air Force defense is that its wokeness isn't as bad as you think--yet?
If we want SMOD, we can go back to the 1960s for what they need to do their job.
If we say that tanks are obsolete because the Russians can't use them properly, the list of weapons that don't work will be really long. Face it, as I wrote, tanks have been crucial even when blowing up all over the battlefield since they were invented. Still, this is a flashing alarm about current tank design: "It appears that the cost-benefit — the relative cost of defeating a tank vs. what a tank costs — is going against the tank." I factored that into my calculations in my linked post. And, as the article addresses, we also need to redefine what "combined arms" means for that classic means of enabling the tank to dominate ground combat.
The long road to Ukraine's Kharkov counteroffensive. It's a good start.
My question is how the Biden administration's "action without competency" will save the mullah regime: "The massive anti-government demonstrations in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini continued unabated for the 10th day on Monday, despite authorities warning of intensified 'action without leniency'." You know why I think that.
In order to rend their garments and pull their hair about the Italian election, American leftists again have to define past nationalist socialists as "right wing." The Left should look in the mirror if it wants to see semi-fascists or even neo-fascists. I see no reason to worry about Meloni. Tip to Instapundit.
I feel bad about Pakistanis enduring those massive floods. America has helped. But Pakistan chose to screw over America in Afghanistan and has turned to China. So yeah, maybe Pakistan should take our suggestion and get China to offer debt relief to Pakistan in order to help.
Planetary defense: "A NASA spacecraft rammed an asteroid at blistering speed Monday in an unprecedented dress rehearsal for the day a killer rock menaces Earth." Tip to Instapundit.
Belt and Road 2.0 0.2, it seems.
Let's see. Russia's military is faceplanting in Ukraine. Russia's bureaucracy is faceplanting in its mobilization effort. Being unclear on the difference between mobilizing reservists and conscription of civilians is just one problem. But Russia's nuclear arsenal is okey dokey and super scary? Really?
Decades of oppressive mullah rule in Iran is undermining Shia Islam itself in Iran. Eventually that will destroy the mullah government system in Iran.
Reunited Germany is seemingly having second thoughts about joining the West.
I am constantly amazed at the vast difference between those who practically say you are a moron to think China could conquer Taiwan and those who think there is no way America could prevent China from conquering Taiwan. I assume nothing, including what "victory" for China means.
So we've got that going for us: "Five years after its commissioning, the world’s largest warship is in shape to deploy, the officer who oversees the Navy’s carrier program said last week." I'm still not happy with the Ford-class carrier.
Will the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) follow Putin's Ukraine example and work themselves up into a lather thinking that Taiwan must be conquered before Taiwan threatens the CCP itself? Could be. And the CCP might be right.
The Army ground drone armed with Javelin missiles and machine guns. That's part of a drone swarm around a manned tank I've suggested. And looked into the future for employment.
Most likely to be the first president on a sex offender registry? Tip to Treacher.
Navy surface drones. Even if operational use is unclear. I like the picture of Nomad, with its systems in shipping containers on the deck. But I would.
"Loss of strength gradient." Huh. Never heard of it. The perils of research pre-Internet. Back in college when I was thinking of a career in quantitative analysis, I had an independent study project using the Correlates of War data sets on war outomes and measures of national power to try to calculate the decrease in national power over distance. I actually threw away my data not that long ago, figuring my work was way too obsolete to be of use to me.
I've read that Putin's mobilization is targeting Moslems and other non-ethnic Russians to avoid provoking ethnic Russian resistance. But he might just be trading problems: "In the last few years, the military has quietly stopped accepting many volunteers or conscripts from Moslem areas, especially the Caucasus (particularly Chechnya and Dagestan). The wisdom of this was made clear when Russian intelligence reported that the most effective Russian Moslems who joined and fought for Islamic terrorist groups were military veterans."
Woo! I can delete my ArriveCAN app! Tip to Instapundit. I kind of had to go. Responsibilities. But I'd really rather not vacation in Canada as I used to while that Castro-wannabe Trudeau is in power.
American friends and allies apparently are eager for training from the Army's SFABs.
Shocking news: Jihadis are rising in Afghanistan since America turned the government over to the Taliban. And even Pakistan is a target. Oops.
I'm confused. The Marines reorganized to hop across islands to help the Navy fight the Chinese navy. But the new Marine Littoral Regiment has [checks notes] one anti-ship missile battery. So ... what? The Navy will scatter Marine infantry companies across the western Pacific to be stranded when the Chinese push past them? I'm fine with the intent. In the Pacific. But is the MLR organized to achieve the intent?
The U.S. doesn't seem to be busting a gut to get Ukraine advanced NASAM air defense systems.
Italy's new government is a threat to the unity of the European Union,
which explains why so many on the left who love the idea of a "kinder
and gentler" Soviet Union ruled from Brussels are upset at Italy's
political shift.
Russia announced overwhelming support in Russian-occupied Ukraine for joining Russia. Finally, we can see the Russians actually rigging a foreign election.
A prominent opponent of Italy's likely new prime minister, Meloni, scoffs that she is a threat to Italian democracy and says it is fake news to call her a fascist. Tip to Instapundit. Why on Earth do I mistrust our media which marches in lockstep calling her a neo-fascist? Basically, I don't fear continental European conservative statists any more than I fear European socialist statists. But I can't admire continental conservative statists. Still, at this point they seem like an improvement over the EU-loving leftist statists.
Is Russia setting up blocking units behind the front to shoot its troops who retreat? Enforcers are nothing odd. American Military Police behind the lines collect troops deserting their units. But shooting your own troops in the field is way beyond that. Won't the measure encourage Russian troops to surrender rather than retreat?
Networked warfare. Precision firepower and persistent surveillance requires concentrating effects from physically dispersed units. Massing effects without massing units long enough to be targets will be the key to winning and survival. And a secure and robust network linking units is vital.
I'm just going to ask. Why did we have 162 Chinese scientists working at our nuclear labs in the first place? This is a bipartisan failure. America is way too welcoming to Chinese scientists exploiting and plundering our research facilities, in general.
I'm a little surprised that Iranian drones are making a difference in Russia's war against Ukraine. But if true, isn't this humiliating for Russia?
Is it really silly to think Russia bombed its own Nordstream pipelines to avoid legal obligations to sell natural gas to Western Europe? After all, Russia has twice now held farcical referenda in occupied Ukrainian territory to fake the legality of Russia's conquest. That said, the Russians aren't the only suspect.
Belarus remains more of a problem than an opportunity for Russia despite the subliminal Anschluss.
Speaking of Anschluss, Russia announced it would annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson provinces after the illegal and sham referenda Russia held. Will this help Putin by allowing him to send conscripts to Ukraine--now formally Russian territory? Or will this scare the Hell out of Russians who don't want to die there after being "trained" that the bullets come out of the circular opening at the front?
Military wokeness is worrisome. Tip to Instapundit.
Biden, like Obama before him, will likely look away as Iran's mullahs crush protesters. I think Obama/Biden oddly think a stronger Iran will provide incentive for the Saudis and Israelis to negotiate with Iran, resulting in stability. It won't. But they believe that. See also the Syrian multi-war. Which is why I worry Biden will ultimately throw Ukraine under the bus to save Putin. Smart Diplomacy® is hard to watch.
Wow: "The [Ukrainian] September offensive also put about 20 percent of Russian troops in Ukraine out of action." I assume that means killed, wounded, captured, and deserted. Will the latter be rounded up and put back in action? How many of the losses are in that category?
China is saving Iran's mullahs by buying up their oil. I assume Biden is upset. Saving the mullahs is his job.
A strategic moment for U.S.-Brazil relations? Well, Brazil is the country of the future. And always will be. But seriously, Brazil should be a partner in South America.
Taiwan could really use allied troops on the ground to deter or defeat a Chinese invasion. The author raises the Bataan surrender problem. Which is why I don't go as far as advocating deploying American troops before China invades. (Although that option is brought up in the same Military Review issue.)
Australia needs better basing for its amphibious forces. It doesn't take a lot of amphibious forces to have a strategic effect in the South China Sea.
FFS (via instapundit): "white women with expendable income to
waste can now pay people to come to their house, eat their food, and
tell them how racist they are, and they can do it all on television." The institutional stupidity is horrifying. Liberals playing a game of "pin the tale on the honky." You thought I was joking?
I'd protect critical infrastructure, but this sounds about right: "'I find it hard to imagine that an adversary would simultaneously believe that an EMP attack would be simultaneously catastrophic and that it wouldn’t warrant a catastrophically large response,' he added. 'This seems to imagine a very strange adversary.'"
Well, good: "A decade after the services first allowed gay and lesbian troops to serve openly, a report from the Joint Staff found that concerns about combat effectiveness and unit cohesion were basically unfounded." Good for combat effectiveness and unit cohesion. And good for patriotic gay and lesbian troops. But this doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a problem 30 years ago. Society changes.
The European Union doesn't like conservative national governments. Those countries need to get out of the proto-imperial EU while they are still sovereign countries and not imperial provinces. Fortunately, the coercive power of 10,000 cheese regulations is waning. So yeah, Italy's relationship with America will naturally improve trans-Atlantic relations. Unless our president insists on calling the new Italian leaders semi-fascist, of course. The EU doesn't like America. And we shouldn't like the EU. I liked the EU more when it was the European Economic Community.
Is Iran going through a nutball succession?
Russia should end the war against Ukraine soon (and China should agree) before NATO countries spend the money to build the infrastructure to sustain a long major war.
Russia has stripped its border with the Baltic states and Finland to feed troops and equipment into the Ukraine front. So much for the claimed NATO threat. More here. Kaliningrad is included in the stripping.
I find it odd that some American conservatives say Ukraine isn't a real country worthy of our support. I guess I'm relieved the French didn't feel that way when ethnic English revolted against King George III in 1775.
Yes, Taiwan has geography that makes it difficult to invade. If defended. And the post paints a far rosier picture of Taiwan's reserve system than I've read. And what if China's initial military objective is just to get a bridgehead? Isn't that less difficult than conquering Taiwan?
Remember, if Putin is pushed out of power his replacement may be bad in different ways. But as long as the replacement admits defeat and leaves Ukraine, I guess that's a problem for Russians to deal with.
Putin is counting on winter, Hungary, and Italy? I really don't think the latter two are going to stop the West from supporting Ukraine. Italy won't be nearly that sympathetic to Russia. As for winter, Russian troops might be eager to escape Russian logistics by surrendering. Especially if Ukraine can mount a winter offensive in the south. Are we helping Ukraine prepare for that?
I signed up for a DALL-E account. But attempts to create something about Biden or Putin are violations of their creation policy. I guess I can sort of understand it. But are ordinary people given fewer protections?
Several people purchased my e-booklet since my 20th anniversary post. Thank you. I know the formatting sucks. But your support is appreciated.
Fascinating:
If Putin is crazy enough to use chemical or nuclear weapons to hold on to his conquests, if it works he's smart enough to conquer more and make the same kind of threat again. Why wouldn't he? As if any distance from Moscow is a safe buffer.
I keep reading about how China is doomed if it invades because Taiwan will resist fiercely. I'm not so sure about that purported resolve: "A vast majority of polled Taiwanese (78 percent) in March said they had
little to no confidence in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, according
to a survey from the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation." And without nearly enough enlisted and commissioned reservist leaders, how can the army fully fight? And the army is key--so being army-centric is absolutely correct. Taiwan can't build a navy or air force big enough to defeat the Chinese.
I'm not sure what the angst over Russia's annexation of conquered Ukrainian territory is based on. Putin already made it clear he thinks the entire country is illegitimate and rightfully part of Russia. So now he said parts of Ukraine are now formally Russian? Huh. Russians will be no more willing to fight and die in Ukraine now than they were before annexation.
I've been using "referenda" as the plural for "referendum" when mentioning the fake votes Russia has held in occupied Ukrainian territory. While it is apparently acceptable, it is not really correct. So going forward I will use "referendums". Important stuff, I know.
Democrats accuse political opponents of being Hitler or Mussolini so often that I have to believe Democrats actually think Hitler and Mussolini are known for mean tweets and refusing to use alternative pronouns.
Ukraine's domestically built drones.
One thing that puzzles me is that while Democrats oddly were terrified that Trump would start a nuclear war with North Korea (which still isn't likely to have anything that can reach America); I don't hear of Democrats even worried that Biden might start a nuclear war with Russia (even if I wonder how many work).
Iranian protests have expanded. And leadership remains uncertain. Is this significant? Don't know.
Is Earth too difficult for aliens to easily detect? Tip to Instapundit.
Should Australia acquire SSBNs rather than SSNs? I'm skeptical of that. Although over time the healing power of "and" might become the answer.
If NATO tells Russia that NATO will intervene on the side of Ukraine if Russia uses nuclear weapons, by inference Russia is getting the assurance that short of Russia using nukes, NATO won't do more than supply Ukraine with weapons, logistics, diplomatic, and intelligence support. If Russian leaders truly fear NATO, wouldn't that be a major achievement in their minds?
Russia's use of S-300 air defense missiles for ground attack missions. I recall that prior to the Iraq War that Saddam was converting old Soviet anti-aircraft missiles to banned surface-to-surface missiles.
The 4-star Power Point Rangers overrunning the Pentagon. Perhaps if we had fewer, those remaining would be soldiers rather than letting so many become woke or status quo politicians because they have too much time on their hands. As I've mentioned before, I don't trust Macgregor on foreign policy issues. But military issues? He's earned my respect on that.
Turkey's 4-decade war against Kurdish rebels based in Iraq continues.
I think people in my city own more Ukraine flags than American flags. Just an observation.
Civilization is fragile. Too many think civilization is a constant fact immune to prying bits of it apart for their own narrow emotional needs.
The Chinese Communist Party debated its future policy in the 1980s. The CCP suppressed that debate: "Instead, the CCP told a triumphant story of wise, resolute decisions propelling China’s rise on the single correct path taken, bolstering its legitimacy." Tienanmen Square was the obliteration of the human witnesses to the debate and a warning to others. And that suppression undermines opposition to the path chosen by the CCP. Westerners go along with that by their odd claim that the Chinese are seemingly genetically able to plan centuries ahead. LOL!
A final thought on Putin's speech. Putin calling his invasion of Ukraine a war to overturn the Western system is nonsense. I suspect it is a combination of needing a bigger goal than the Donetsk to justify Russia's huge losses; and the need to justify and rally Russians around the need to mobilize manpower to defeat that threat. Russia needs the Western economic system to sell its raw materials and the Western interstate system that amplifies Russian diplomatic power with a permanent UN Security Council seat.
Propaganda shut down American special forces. Our enemy didn't need to defeat our best fighters in direct combat. Any more than our enemies needed to destroy our aircraft or artillery to degrade that advantage. We really need to decide if we are fighting wars or popularity contests. Take care to avoid civilian casualties. But don't make that the objective of our military operations.
And a belated Happy Fiscal New Year, of course.
