Is the mullah regime finally on its last legs? Will Biden save them to get a nuclear deal?
Are the protests in Iran sparked by the death of a woman at the hands of the "morality police" going to bring down the mullah regime? Will broad sections of Iranian society join the protests and sustain them? Will the regime unity falter on using force or offering concessions? Will the security forces kill as needed?
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to concede on the mandatory hijab law is likely driving fissures among the political elite. Retired Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) general Hossein Alaei expressed sympathy for some protester grievances and suggested abolishing the morality patrol on October 18.[1] Alaei’s statement follows several moderate and reformist politicians taking similarly sympathetic position in recent days. Three reformists separately proposed reforms to address public frustrations on October 17, as CTP previously reported.[2] Former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani stated that the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and Basij Organization should not be responsible for enforcing the mandatory hijab law on October 12.[3] Khamenei has shown no indication that he will remove the hijab requirement or offer a similar concession to the people and has instead taken a hard line toward the protests in his recent speeches.[4] Khamenei has thus taken a position that some members of the regime--even the most ideological--may not be willing to defend.
The fissures in the leadership are evident. But elements of the leadership haven't sided with the protesters. And while protests seem to be broadening, the regime bully boys seem still willing to kill protesters.
I'm not getting my hopes up. But things remain the same. Until they don't.
But because democrats love the mullahs, I worry Biden will the save the regime to get his precious faux nuclear deal with the mullahs.
ISW is issuing updates on the Iran crisis.
NOTE: War updates continue here.
