Russia decided that a war that hardly needed to be noticed because it was just a "special military operation" is actually an existential war for the very survival of Holy Mother Russia. Well that really escalated quickly, as Ukraine continues to hit Russian forces on the Kherson front; and make sweeping gains south of Kharkov.
Well, that really escalated. Perhaps not quickly. But whoa (tip to PJ Media):
Listen to the messaging now — and you can sometimes hear an entire Russian TV broadcast that never mentions a specific front line or battle in Ukraine itself. What you hear now — incessantly — is talk of a struggle of civilizations. This is a fight for the soul of Russia, for its rightful place on the planet. The enemies are not in Kyiv, or in the Donbas; they are in Brussels and Berlin, London and Washington, D.C. ...
Perhaps because of Russia’s well-documented troubles on the battlefield; perhaps because it became clear that the “Nazis” in Kyiv were not to be easily ousted; whatever the case, the arguments have shifted. One hears less about “denazification,” and less about Ukraine itself. Now it’s more about the demons well west of Kyiv. Russia is no longer at war with Ukraine, but with NATO and the collective west, led by the United States.
How is this supposed to work out? Russians unwilling to fight and die in Ukraine for Putin in order to "save" Ukrainians from "Nazis" will now sign up for a freaking global war against the West in Ukraine?
Seriously? I swear the Russian leaders fear being ignored more than anything else.
Russia's leadership might want to take counsel from a joke reportedly making the rounds in Moscow back in March:
According to Putin, the special military operation is really a conflict between Russia and NATO about world dominance. What’s the situation now?
Russia has lost 15,000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes, and 1,000 trucks. NATO hasn’t arrived yet.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings.
A top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Moscow would not stop its military campaign in Ukraine even if Kyiv formally renounced its aspirations to join NATO.
But Russia has not been paying attention. I wrote several weeks ago that I thought the war had tilted toward Ukraine from the knife's edge as Russia's offensive faltered. Ukraine is increasing their edge. Can they accelerate that or will Russia reverse Ukraine's gains?
Ukraine has over the last week expanded apparently local counter-attacks in the east to advance deep through Russia's lines, outflanking Russians on the Izyum front and threatening them with isolation:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum.
See also here, here, and here.
The Russians have really effed up by not having reserves to reinforce their thinned out lines weakened to reinforce the Kherson front. Russia has had to move troops already committed to holding the line laterally--again--to cope with the eastern losses. Which will weaken the lines losing those Russian troops. Will Russia commit the so-called new Third Corps of cannon fodder as a counter-attack force in the east?
I've heard Ukrainians are taking prisoners and that the Russians are abandoning equipment and supplies. Russia could be supplying Ukraine's army. But I'll wait for confirmation.
Now we need to figure out if Ukraine is carrying out a major effort in the east with the Kherson front a feint at some level. I'd wondered that, as I noted. But I'm not prepared to say that is so given the importance of the Kherson front. But if the east is the main effort, so much for satellites and drones preventing the surprise massing of troops for offensives.
NATO governments take note. Ukraine is winning. If they can push the shaken Russian ground forces the Russians might break and run on a wide front. But Russia is big and could stop it and reverse the losses. If Russia can fight long enough to defeat Ukraine, Russia has enough to outlast NATO's ability to sustain a war. While Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, NATO has been given the gift of time to repair a shrunken defense industrial base. Use it wisely.
The chimps with nukes are running around scraping their knuckles, yelping in pain, and flinging poo and beating their chest with extra gusto. Truly, the Fuck-Up Fairy is now Putin's brain. But God help us, we might be dumber if we don't get our defense industries geared up to stop Putin.
UPDATE: Just a thought. I believe Kherson is still the main front. Could the Kharkov front attacks have been a test run to see if Russian troops can be broken and pursued? Would failure on a secondary front have been more palatable to Ukraine and also provide notice that it could not switch to major attacks yet on the Kherson front? Just wondering.
UPDATE: When America sent 105mm howitzers to Ukraine, I assumed it was for airmobile operations. Then I read it was because we were short of 155mm pieces and ammo. Now I read this story about airdropping howitzers in an American exercise. This 105mm piece, which can be airlifted by helicopter. So. There's that.
UPDATE: Some apparent confirmation of some of the equipment Russia abandoned. As I've noted, controlling the battlefield after a fight is a windfall for repairing your own disabled stuff and grabbing the enemy's. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: A good recap.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Another good description of Ukraine's counteroffensive. Five regular brigades were massed for the attack plus others supporting, including Territorial Army.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
