The Russian fleet is dying. Russia would be wise to let it die. But memories of Cold War glory and Soviet blue water sea power won’t allow Putin to take that step.
Can the Russian fleet survive?
What future does the Russian Navy have? While Russia’s naval forces have played an important role in the war their performance has been, at best, mixed. The Russian Navy has successfully blockaded ports and launched missiles against targets across Ukraine, but along the way it lost its Black Sea flagship, lost one of its most important amphibious warfare vessels, failed to ensure control of Snake Island, and failed to prosecute decisive amphibious operations in the Ukrainian littoral.
I consider large surface ships and a blue water navy in general to be a waste of Russian resources:
The fleet surely hurts. I've mentioned more than once that for such a large country, building a fleet capable of fighting for control of the oceans is foolish.
So obviously I hope Russia builds a blue water navy. And lots of super carriers.
Back to the initial article:
On the one hand, Russia enjoys the happy coincidence that its surface fleet cannot survive in nearly any conceivable conflict against a major power and that it likely can no longer afford to build or maintain a surface fleet.
On the other hand, President Putin clearly values the prestige and intimidation factor that large, powerful surface ships can offer. It remains to be seen whether Russia will make the investments necessary to preserve the power projection capabilities offered by its surface fleet.
With Putin, despite signs of sanity, the effects of time, evidence his army and air force desperately need investment that is going to the fleet, and disguised good luck, we may get the best of both worlds. He'll insist Russia's inadequate industrial base try to build prestige ships. And he'll fail spectacularly.
Will nobody in Russia tell Putin he's effing up royally?
NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.
