China would be very happy if Russia ignites a war with America and NATO. Yet that is no reason for NATO and America to let Russia conquer Ukraine. Will Russia cripple its military in a war with NATO? And pin its military in place on its western border for a generation as China gears up to reclaim its lost territories in Russia's Far East? Russia needs to act on its need for NATO's friendship.
So Russia will invade Ukraine if NATO doesn't capitulate?
The Russian Armed Forces have been conducting a multi-year military modernization program that is now bearing fruit. Its conventional forces have been reorganized and re-equipped to support a fast-moving "short war" capability.
Well that's the question. Can Russia get its short and glorious war or will it face something worse?
Or rather, does Putin believe he can win fast regardless of his actual capabilities?
Yet giving in to Russia's demands won't end well. Imposing "neutrality" on Ukraine won't preserve the peace. Denying them the right to associate with countries that promote their security and prosperity simply tells Ukrainians that the Russians can capture Ukraine when they are ready. Past Russian promises failed. Notice the pattern.
Russia has already staked out its claims beyond Ukraine. I feel sorry for Russians. But Putin-ruled Russia is a dangerous loose cannon in Europe. Have no doubt that Russia has more territorial ambitions. Their grounds for taking Ukraine apply to many more countries.
Russia and America surely want an understanding in Europe. But Russia needs American friendship more than the reverse. Because a rising China is more of a problem for Russia than America faces, with America's many allies and geography. Until Russia makes peace with NATO, Russia is alone. And if Russia is too weak to defend its frontier with China, is Russia strong enough to face a hostile NATO that Putin has been busy creating?
That dilemma seems so clear to me. I struggle for explanations of Russia's seemingly bizarre self-destructive actions. Could this possibly be a Potemkin crisis designed to let Russia turn against China? Or is the explanation the obvious one that Russia under Putin is a dangerously paranoid and nuclear-armed state?
My eerie inter-war vibe I've felt for years may be easing. But is this a pre-war vibe I'm feeling instead? Or will the long nuclear truce era of nuclear powers refraining from engaging in direct, sustained, and open combat continue?
My guess is that this crisis means neither war nor a quiet flip. Putin won't risk war with NATO, but will carry out a short and glorious military action against Ukraine for limited gains, declaring a ceasefire before NATO can act. But I can't rule out that Putin sees this as his last real shot at winning something in the west without a general war when NATO is more ready.
I hope that if Russia invades Ukraine that NATO, without direct combat intervention, helps Ukraine turn Russia's short and glorious war into a bleeding ulcer.
It makes no sense to me that Russia would risk crippling its ability to get Western help to resist China. But I may be grossly misreading Russia's view of the situation.
God help us, Putin might have accepted vassal status under China. And to sleep at night, Putin may have convinced himself he's a Goddamn, tiger-riding, geopolitical genius.
