We must not cooperate with the Taliban information operations that portray their victory in Afghanistan as inevitable.
I've never really trusted those "control" maps:
In the absence of independently verified data from the battlefield, these easily digestible graphics seem to show sweeping Taliban gains but are compiled almost entirely on the basis of Taliban claims, with little to no reference to Afghan government statements or statistics. Routinely used as a source by many news agencies, such maps may mislead news consumers worldwide and also impact Afghan lives, public opinion, and potentially the outcome of the war. Yet, these maps seem to have little connection to reality and have yet to clearly define what “control” means, or how the colors equate to governance. ...
Mis- or disinformation has a direct battlefield effect as a loss of morale by citizens and soldiers poses a real threat to Afghan forces fighting under arduous conditions. Psychological warfare can also be facilitated when journalists play into insurgent narratives by reporting that the war is sure to be lost, running such alarmist headlines as “District after district falls to the Taliban.” Even former U.S. National Security Advisor General H.R. McMaster recently panned U.S. media for their “disinterest and defeatism.”The Taliban have been suffering enormous casualties to create the image of a tide of victory.
On paper, the Afghan government can hold. But in the real world, fear of death is heightened by the American-led withdrawal. If enough time passes without a general collapse of government morale, the paper balance will win out.
But the Taliban have a window of opportunity when fear of the unknown without America holding the hand of government forces makes government officials and forces scared enough to preemptively give up.
And yes, it is victory. We and our allies denied jihadis a sanctuary to attack us at home and created a government and security forces that kill jihadis every day.
UPDATE: This is a problem:
After days of heavy fighting with Afghan security forces, the Taliban has entered Laskhar Gah, the capital of Helmand province. The city is in danger of falling to the Taliban.
The Taliban is now battling Afghan security forces in the heart of the city. Clashes are occurring close to the police and National Directorate of Security headquarters, the city’s main prison, and the governor’s compound. The Taliban has also taken control of the city’s main radio station, and has begun broadcasting its Voice of Sharia programming.
This was always going to be a hard hold given its location in Taliban Pushtun territory, as I noted a few months ago:
Hope is our rearguard in Afghanistan. Although we've long feared Afghan security forces are enduring "unsustainable" casualties, that's pretty normal there and the Taliban suffer higher loss rates. Also, the fact that the Taliban captured a district capital is insignificant and not a big deal. Government forces will retake it. Districts are like our counties. How well protected are our county seats of government? Although I am worried about holding Lashkar Gah in the south. Remember that city when we were last thinking about getting out?
Work the problem.
