Peak a Boo

Has China peaked? It would be good if it has. But a China at this level will be a scary threat to its neighbors for a long time to come.

Makes sense to me:

The Chinese Academy of Science predicts that China’s population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2029, drop to 1.36 billion by 2050, and shrink to as few as 1.17 billion people by 2065. Ominously, if fertility continues to drop from its current rate of 1.6 children per woman to a realistic 1.3, China’s population would be reduced by about 50% by the turn of the next century. And the composition of that population will also change in significant ways. Most significantly, the population will continue to get older. ...

Second, and despite the night terrors of some and the fever dreams of others, the reality is that China’s meteoric economic rise is stalling. Rather than displacing the United States and becoming the next economic superpower, China is instead entering into a period of economic entropy and relative decline—with all that that implies for internal disaffection and unrest.

The reason for this is that China now finds itself ensnared in a classic “middle income trap.” This term refers to a situation in which rapid growth and the equally rapid attainment of the status of middle-income country is followed by a period of stalled growth and failure to achieve the status of high-income country. A country falls into this trap when it loses its competitive edge in the export of manufactured goods because of rising wages.

But I haven't been panicked about the rise of China. Concerned, of course, but not convinced that China would pass America by. Or if they did, whether the Chinese could hold their lead.

Five years ago I wrote that China's peak was in sight. Two years ago I wondered if China's meteoric rise was over. Last year I looked ahead to the relative decline of China and asked if the China Century was over already (before it could begin). And in the summer it seemed like peak China might be here. I asked if the next century would be another American Century.

Although I recently asked if China would press its temporary peak power--even if it has fallen short of objectives--to seek gains while it can.

And never forget what I warned fifteen years ago. Even dominance within their own region can have global impact. Even if China is peaking right now, the danger a communist regime poses to the world is not over.