China's Xi is talking tough. If China wants to establish a bad-ass reputation that demands respect, should Taiwan worry? Or should Russia?
Applied to today, Xi is advocating for what is generally known as “peace through strength.” But his rhetoric suggests that China will not only not back down from a conflict, but could actually seek one out to win the “respect” it desires. Particularly concerning in that regard is his emphasis on how much the Chinese military learned from the Korean War, which he describes as a painful trial-by-fire necessary to advance China’s military modernization.
So Xi Jinping will try to scare America with the prospect of war with China? And this will include displaying an American Army regimental standard captured in the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir in the Korean War? Well, we might want to remind China that it took 200,000 to 600,000 dead Chinese troops to capture that flag. Although Xi might be talking "war" to cover the quick seizure of Taiwan's ill-defended Pratas Islands, as I mentioned in updates in this post. Might that be China's threatened "retaliation" for American arms sales to Taiwan?
That might make a good response to American arms sales. But what kind of respect do you get for such a small win over Taiwan if your goal is respect? Especially when it won't stop American arms sales?
And yes, China would have to stop fast after taking those islands unless it wants to risk a bigger war:
Japan and the United States on Monday began air, sea and land exercises around Japan in a show of force in the face of increased Chinese military activity in the region.
The Keen Sword exercise is the first big drill since Yoshihide Suga became Japan’s prime minister last month with a vow to continue the military build-up aimed at countering China, which claims Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea.
So Taiwan's small islands are too small of a target to make China look bad-ass. And America is too strong relative to China to risk taking on directly and revealing China to be far from bad-ass.
Perhaps Russia would make a better target if Xi wants to gain "respect" for China's power.
UPDATE: I agree that great power war is not obsolete.
And sure, a rising China and an incumbent power America worried about losing number one status does make the risk of war between the two real.
But America isn't necessarily going to lose its top status if China's rise falters. And America and China are far apart geographically, which reduces the friction.
Honestly, the faltering Russia should worry more about the rising and possibly faltering China that actually has major territorial claims on Russian territory.
