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Monday, September 07, 2020

Keeping Post-Incirlik Options Open

I'm uncomfortable about relying on Turkey under Erdogan for our important Incirlik air base. Hello Cyprus:

The United States will lift a 33-year arms embargo on Cyprus and deepen its security cooperation with Nicosia, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday, prompting an angry response from Turkey.

The island was divided in 1974 following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-inspired coup. Turkey recognises the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is not recognised by other countries. Several peacemaking efforts have collapsed.

Washington placed restrictions on the transfer of arms to Cyprus in 1987 to encourage reunification efforts and avoid an arms race on the island.

"Cyprus is a key partner in the Eastern Mediterranean," he said on Twitter. "We will waive restrictions on the sale of non-lethal defence articles and services to the Republic of Cyprus for the coming fiscal year."

I've speculated about how the non-Turkish portion of Cyprus might be a good alternative to Incirlik:

If the Turks ever eject us from the Incirlik air base (or if we leave because Turkey stops being anything but a technical ally), Cyprus (the Greek part not occupied by Turkey) might fill in for the role. Especially if Turkey continues its push to dominate the eastern Mediterranean Sea.


Turkey's regional ambitions don't seem like they are subsiding.

Anyway, in case taking a relationship break with Erdogan doesn't work out, it is nice to have options.

UPDATE: Turkey is unhappy:

Turkey said early on Monday that the United States needed to return to a neutral stance on Cyprus, after Washington and Nicosia signed a memorandum of understanding to create a training centre.

Oh well. America is unhappy with Erdogan's Turkey, too.