Israel is planning and exercising for ground warfare differently:
The tank fire had been the closing salvos of a multi-day drill to keep Israel’s armored units and infantry at their highest level of readiness for the next conflict. That conflict could come in the Gaza Strip against Hamas, or against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. As the exercise was taking place in the Golan Heights, not far from the border with Syria and Lebanon, the terrain looked like what Israel would confront in a battle with Hezbollah. The mock “village” that the tanks and infantry from Israel’s storied Golani brigade assaulted this month also looked like the kind of challenge Israel would face against Hezbollah. The village, a series of metal sea containers, included mock Katyusha rocket launchers and cutouts of enemy fighters hiding amid the rocks and trees.
The Israelis aren't happy with their performance in the 2006 war with Hezbollah. Israel screwed the pooch, no doubt.
The emphasis on armored and combined arms warfare in that training seems to indicate that my thoughts on how a renewed war against Hezbollah would unfold are valid:
I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.
Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.
This is on top of other indications that Israel could go deep.
Remember, Israel can't possibly endure the scale of a Hezbollah rocket bombardment until air and artillery fire can knock out the rocket firing and storage sites. Especially if Hezbollah has acquired significant numbers of precision rockets and missiles. Israel must occupy the ground from which rockets can be fired at Israel. And once there why not go further north to really tear that enemy apart?
I thought the timing for such a large-scale ground raid would be when Hezbollah had suffered the most from their Syria expedition to save Assad but before Hezbollah could recover. But I've been wrong on connecting dots for a long time. Maybe the sanctions on Iran are hurting Hezbollah even more.
Also, does Lebanon have so many problems now that an Israeli invasion narrowly focused on hurting Hezbollah while avoiding punishing Lebanon would be tolerated or welcomed by most Lebanese?
The past year has been nothing short of an earthquake for Lebanon, hit by an economic meltdown, mass protests, financial collapse, a virus outbreak and a cataclysmic explosion that virtually wiped out the country’s main port.
Yet Lebanese fear even darker days are ahead.
The country’s foreign reserves are drying up, the local currency is expected to spiral further out of control, and incidents of armed clashes between rival groups are escalating. Bickering politicians have been unable to form a government, putting an international bailout out of reach.
Or would Lebanese rally around Hezbollah despite the Iranian-backed terror group's likely role in the massive Beirut port explosion?
Might an Israeli offensive take place after Trump's reelection? [UPDATE: Or after his defeat, of course, but before he leaves office.]
UPDATE: Clearly if the Israelis move north it will be very rapid:
In some ways war hasn’t changed here; the use of tanks, machine guns and infantry uses much of the same equipment that has been in use for years. What has changed is Israel’s investment in having units working closely together, to fight throughout the night and day with air support, more drones and intelligence for the fighters on the ground.
I don't think Hezbollah can handle that.
