A More Obvious Mission

Israel is reorganizing some of their special operations units, including the ability to land and set up a temporary airbase behind enemy lines. This can be used to rescue downed pilots or extract agents (think how America tried to do that in 1980 when trying to rescue hostages held by Iran). But there is another type of mission:

A more obvious mission for the 7th Wing is establishing temporary airfields in the Syrian or Lebanese country side to support major special operations efforts or a deep incursion by ground forces.

I've been predicting exactly that kind of deep ground force incursion in Lebanon for at least a decade:

I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.

Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.

And a good portion of Israeli mechanized forces will stand ready to deter the Syrians from jumping in. The threat to drive on Damascus should be a powerful inducement to stay quiet even if Iran wants Assad to fight to the last Arab.

The long and grueling multi-war that began after I wrote that pretty much destroyed the ability of Syria to intervene. And Hezbollah lost a lot of men fighting for Assad.

Although Iran is in a better position to lash out from their Syria foothold.

One day the dots I keep seeing that indicate such an operation might actually connect.

UPDATE: Hmmm:

Gaza’s Hamas rulers said Monday they have reached an agreement through international mediators to end the latest round of cross-border violence with Israel.

Under the deal, Hamas is to halt the launches of explosives-laden balloons and rocket fire into Israel, while Israel said it will ease a blockade that has been tightened in recent weeks.

If that's a dot in the picture, it would protect Israel's left flank as the Israeli army drives into Lebanon to hammer Hezbollah.

Or it is unrelated.

UPDATE: Here's a dot on Israel's right flank:

In southern Syria, on the Israeli border (Golan Heights) a Russia-backed Syrian militia has been taking control of the Syrian side of the border. Called the “Huran Army”, the militia contains many former rebels who are hostile to Iranian influence in Syria but willing to cooperate with the Assads.

Russia is no friend of Iran or its Hezbollah proxy force. If Israel ripped apart Hezbollah, Iran might find the cost of rebuilding Hezbollah too much and scale back its forces in Syria. Which would have the effect of making Russia more important to Assad than Iran.

Would Russia prevent Iranian-controlled forces from operating against Israel from there?

It's a dot. Does it form my picture?

No Easy "Peace" Exit

Will Pakistan and jihadis allow Afghanistan to exist without being a terrorist sanctuary?

I have a bad feeling about the Trump administration's urge to run for the exits in Afghanistan:

Americans want to be done with the military and economic costs of having troops in Afghanistan. The problem with that attitude is that Americans can leave Afghanistan but Afghanistan won’t leave America. The heroin production will continue and major Islamic terrorist groups will have a sanctuary from which to plan attacks on the Wests, especially the United States.

The cost of maintaining the victory we achieved is trivial in comparison to the cost of winning. Will we really risk a future 9/11 on a grander scale by leaving Afghanistan and counting on the honor of Pakistan or the jihadis, luck, or somebody else to keep America safe from jihadi attacks?

As I noted a quarter century ago in a Land Warfare Paper when reflecting on lessons from Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran in 1980:

Not wanting to repeat our experience in Vietnam, many speak of needing an "exit strategy" before committing troops. Such an approach seeks to minimize our losses under the assumption that we will at some point lose, so we had better know when to cut our losses and get out. It also assumes that the situation allows for an exit and that our enemy will allow it. The Iraqis desperately wanted out of the war they initiated in 1980 but were locked by Iran in a death grip that allowed for no easy exit.

Do we really think our Islamist enemies will allow America to disengage from their jihad against us?

Or will the jihadis act on the belief that they have America in a death grip that they will not release as long as they have the strength?

If the latter, America must make sure Afghanistan is one more theater where we kill the SOBs wherever we find them. And I'd rather have local allies--as we achieved at great cost since 2001--helping us instead of hoping drones will be good enough in a deadly game of hide and seek.

Weekend Data Dump

If I understand the problem correctly, we only have 12 years left to save the Post Office.

More Chinese Communist Party "Confucius Institutes" are closing down on our campuses. But there is some resistance. Why?! Do those universities pine for Aryan Institutes or Putin Institutes, too? But where is the CCP shifting their effort? Don't be  foolish enough to think that closing the institutes necessarily reduces the espionage and propaganda that the institutes practiced. The colleges continue to collude with the genocidal fascists in Peking. And shame on the University of Michigan for being one of the campuses trying to maintain links.

Full-rate production of the F-35 (160+/year) should begin in March.  Already, 440 have been delivered to all customers.

The battle against H1N1 did not go well, and America got lucky.  Sixty million Americans got that?! While I remember hearing about it, I never remember hearing any alarming news. I certainly don't remember being alarmed and I have no mentions of it back then on this blog. Nor do I ever recall any discussions of closing the economy or schools. And both of my children were in school back then. I guess there was no political need to stoke a panic.

I don't think North Korea is a worse problem because of Trump, but I was never hopeful that Trump's charm offensive with North Korea would work. But given Obama's failed deals with Iran and Syria, I am positive that Democrats would not have been better with stopping North Korea. In related news of that point more broadly, the idea that Republican hawks can think Biden will defend American interests more aggressively than Trump is stunningly stupid. If Democrats actually do use the military more readily, it will be after cutting the defense budget and so we'd get the worst of both worlds.

More testing shows more Xi Jinping Flu covid19 cases. Duh. Which is why I prefer to watch deaths. But with false positives, are we making the pandemic look worse than it is? And what does that say about the dread "asymptomatic" spreader threat?

So what will China do with their rapidly built high-technology "sea control navy with global reach"? And will the Navy thwart China where such ambitions threaten America and our allies?

This is interesting: Russia's influence in Syria's government is pretty thin and so it has links to the opposition as a fallback position. And basically, Russia needs Syria more than Syria needs Russia.

If America truly is systemically racist, you'd think the system could have held the line closer to slavery rather than retreat from that baseline to electing the first African-American president and achieving the tremendous progress America has made in civil rights. But of course, America isn't systemically racist and the accusation is a dangerous lie. Although it is kind of funny that universities--run by obvious leftists--are supposedly such concentrated Hell holes of racism (on top of rape and sexism, as we've been told). Via Instapundit.

That's pretty funny.

I easily could have come to look forward to Trump leaving after one term, having served his main role of stopping the corrupt Clinton. I wasn't worried one bit about the insane worries about dictatorship and concentration camps that the Left peddled. I was worried about Trump embracing his inner New York City liberal. But then the Resistance began its unhinged 24/7 turn-it-to-11 opposition. And that included the insane notion that Russia colluded with Trump to put Trump in office, leading to the despicable impeachment attempt over Ukraine. It really has been an attempted coup under color of law. The probe deserved about a month of examination before dismissing it as a partisan hit job on Trump. Instead it became its own scandal. People must pay the price for inflicting that on America.

Was it a year ago that we were all chuckling about the Storm Area 51 notion? Ah, good times. Good times.

Don't be so eager to favorably compare Europe to America in responding to the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. They are on different path and now cases are jumping up in Europe. Compare when this is over. And don't compare apples to oranges.

Seriously, we can vote in person. Really.

Is anybody shocked to find that Navalny was poisoned? If Putin isn't evil, he's close enough for government work.

He was made to "care."

Why there is an ammunition shortage in America.

As far as I can tell, Biden's plan for dealing with the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic--five months after lockdowns started and five months before Biden could begin to implement them--is basically what Trump has been doing. With one exception--Biden wants rapid testing. Uh oh.

More on the Turkish-Greek dispute plus Germany, France, and the EU.

The Russians are shocked that people don't trust their "Sputnik V" Xi Jinping Flu vaccine. To be fair, the original Sputnik was a beeping sphere that did nothing.

Hiftar is not fooled by the "ceasefire" announced by the Turkish-backed GNA in Libya. The Turks are building up forces behind the cover of the ceasefire. Ceasefires are only useful if you need the pause to continue fighting. If you don't need it, don't agree to it and focus on winning.

Huh. To be fair, Hope and Change make anything good, from kids in cages to spies. Tip to Instapundit.

Space debris is a thing.

The "reality-based" community, indeed. If Democratic mayors and governors won't protect their residents, eventually the residents will protect themselves. Do Democrats want street battles and casualties? Is Bleeding Kansas coming to a city or state near you? [PRE-PUBLICATION UPDATE: Well, too late. And the Antifa scum flat out murdered a Trump supporter. I've warned that vigilantes and self defense force will form in the absence of state protection. Can we step back from expanding street battles? I'm glad I have sufficient ammo. Not that I expect to need it. But things can change rapidly. I think the Portland murder is the moment that changed things. If the state and city continue to refuse to maintain peace and order, Trump may need to federalize Oregon Army National Guard troops to seal off Portland--not enter--and send in federal civilian law enforcement to arrest Antifa and BLM Marxists no matter what the mayor and state governor want. This is approaching Bleeding Kansas territory.]

Yo, Russia! We were in the neighborhood so thought we'd say hi.

Hahaha! Somebody reacted to the same way I reacted to the whole "under God" so-called fact check that I mentioned last week.

How lies gain traction in the left.  How many will never know that another horrible thing they believe is false?

Pelosi is a horrible person. Let's make sure she isn't an ally of that state. It was actually her (and her party's) obsession with getting Trump that harmed America.

As long as Britain doesn't let the EU frighten Britain into delaying Brexit, who cares if the EU drags its feet on Brexit? If it is to be a no-deal Brexit, so be it. The EU is eager to cave in to far less economically important Iran to gain trade deals. I guarantee the EU will deal with Britain.

When do the Democrats provide "proof of life" for Biden who continues to be hidden away even as he is supposedly that party's presidential candidate?

China's rise has inspired fear, anger, and worry rather than respect. Because the rise has emboldened China to be more assertive in dangerous ways to other countries.

Yes, the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic is bad, but the media's effort to make it seem like America is worse than other countries is ridiculous. Our record by comparison is pretty good.  I'll add that the cases chart seems to show a double hit. But America is big enough that I'd like to see two charts based on latitude to see if there are really two single curves from northern states versus southern states that simply look like a second wave when combined. I don't know what the dividing line would be but I'm sure there are standards of climate that would suggest the right place. Via Instapundit.

Pondering potential paths China could go to war.

I know this is true. Remember the spring when peaceful but openly armed lockdown protesters were portrayed as barely restrained insurrectionists who we should all fear (and condemn for not socially distancing and wearing masks!)? I'm disgusted by the media's portrayal of conservative protests as barely concealed insurrection while they constantly describe Marxist BLM/Antifa rioting and looting as "protests." You wonder why I've long mistrusted the media?

I'm sure we'll properly file China's protest that America observed their naval exercises:

Information on the Mali situation plus background.

Are we going to find out that the unhinged Democratic charges of colluding with the Russians is going to end up showing this was a huge smokescreen to conceal Democratic collusion with Russians?

Wow. Putting a small cubesat into orbit pretty cheaply.

Again, three weeks into cancelling my "cable" TV and I don't miss the woke sports or the news about the latest insanity from the Left. I'm not alone on the sports thing: "Increasingly, those who once most mattered to sports — fans, patrons — don’t care about the sports that so clearly and in so many instances don’t care about them."

"Thinking about last night’s Republican Convention today at the gym, I realized that Trump isn’t just running for re-election: The story he’s telling at the RNC is also about saving America from the race war that the left is trying to foment. The left wants it to be black vs. white, immigrant vs. native, etc. Trump’s making clear that it’s about people who are constructive, productive, and generally happy, vs. people who are destructive, parasitic, and generally miserable, and that that difference transcends things like race. This is a huge, underappreciated — and very traditionally American — message. By promoting it at this crucial time, Trump may very well be saving America." It is grimly ironic that liberals have been so awful in their "destroy the country in order to save it from Trump" excesses and silence in the face of spreading violence that they have turned Trump into the defender of our institutions and rule of law.

The Navy is looking at how it could repair damaged ships during a war beyond the inadequate Navy yards.

Sure, an Indian anti-shipping campaign against China in the Indian Ocean isn't cost-free or easy--but the objection of boarding and seizing Chinese ships is odd since in a war the ships would simply be sunk--it would be India's best theater in a war. I admit that my judgment rests on my assumption that China would have trouble sustaining a naval deployment to the Indian Ocean in the face of India's home field advantage. If that's wrong then things change. But if India gets allies in Southeast Asia to help interdict the Chinese PLAN, then China has major problems.

In his most biting attack on Trump yet, Biden demanded Trump "get off his lawn."

As Marxist riots and looting continue and expand across the United States--with the Democrats and media denying it is taking place--I'm starting to be relieved that our police have Army surplus armored vehicles in their force structure. I had been against that. But then again, I never imagined that Democrats and their media auxiliaries would aid and abet the riots and looting.

In five years, frowny-face liberals will bemoan the "retail deserts" in cities that were hollowed out by violent riots and looting this year that radical leftists cheered on.

Neat astronomy development.

Following the Doctor Jill Biden strategy, I see.

BLM Marxists abusively demand that you salute them. Be this guy:

Remember, of course Black lives matter. They must matter under our Constitution and it is our duty to make sure we live up to our ideals. But the organization BLM is just a violent hate group that rejects our Constitution and masquerades as a civil rights group. Do not become confused.

Iran has given the IAEA permission--at some time in the future--to look at two suspicious sites. I assume that the Iranians believe they have cleaned the sites of nuclear equipment and residue enough for whatever limited access the IAEA will be granted.

This had best be an actual accident. The Russians say it was the Americans' fault. But lying is in Russia's DNA, so there's that. The US DOD issued a statement.

The US has sanctioned a big time Chinese fentanyl dealer. That drug kills way too many Americans every year (over 31,000 in 2018).

Hong Kong democracy activist Andy Li was captured by the Chinese coast guard while trying to flee to Taiwan. Will this become a "boat people" humanitarian crisis? Is Seventh Fleet capable of rescuing a mass exodus attempt? What would the Chinese order their coast guard and navy to do? Taiwan is a good choice to flee to, of course.

Two NBA teams decided to boycott the rest of the season. Oddly it was not about the NBA's ties to communist China. I haven't followed the NBA since the late 1980s, so this doesn't affect me. But if this woke trend is picked up by the NHL, NFL, and NCAA football, they're dead to me. I'm sure I can find other things to do with my time. Hey, maybe professional soccer could find an opening in this fiasco by appealing to that niche market of sports-loving Patriotic Americans.

It's almost funny how Democrats get outraged over things Trump does that they didn't even blink over when Obama did them. It's like the Resistance isn't even trying any more. They've gone from Russia collusion to the Hatch Act? What? Has Mailboxgate joined Murder Hornets as a failed crisis already? By the election Democrats will be outraged that Trump ends sentences with a preposition.

My! What are the odds of having all three of the Marxists shot in Kenosha (two killed) being total scumbags? Not that they deserved to be shot (arrested, shunned, and marginalized, sure); and arresting the shooter seems appropriate. We don't want street warfare breaking out. Yet I don't know what charges--if any other than for firearm possession, given evidence of self defense--are justified. But it's a damn shame Democratic mayors and governors plus their enablers in the media haven't been willing to nip this sacking of our cities by barbarians in the bud before people started taking action on their own in the absence of police protection.

"Two weeks to bend the curve." Add that lockdown solution to the pandemic to the two biggest lies. So it is three lies, now. Or, since younger Americans don't have a clue about checks in the mail, just dump that one and add the two weeks thing to keep it at two lies.

PhDs work hard to destroy the reputation of their degrees.  Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats keep pushing toward the inevitable decision to keep the addled Biden off of a debate stage with Trump.

Hahaha.

A lot of Trump supporters are really fanboys (and girls). I don't get that. I didn't get Democratic Obama worship, either. Mind you, I find Trump despite his flaws to be orders of magnitude superior to Biden--or whoever he is replaced with before election day. Hmmm. Could early mail voting promoted by Democrats screw up any notion of replacing Biden before the election because so many Democratic votes would be nullified?

In related thoughts, my support for Republicans was long based on defense, foreign policy, and economics. But I had respect for Democrats for blue collar support (I grew up in Detroit, first to go to college) and civil liberties. Over time Democrats became the party of wealthy progressives, racial and ethnic Balkanization, and cancel culture censors, which erased my former grudging respect. Under Trump there has been some backsliding in the Republican party on foreign policy and economics, but not enough to make Democrats superior. And the Resistance behavior has forfeited any chance Democrats would have to gain my support.

So they're saying drinking bleach has been a cure for a century? Sorry. But I just can't believe so many people wrongly believe Trump suggested drinking bleach (or any other disinfectant) to combat the Xi Jinping Flu. Tip to Instapundit.

Minneapolis tells still-willing business owners to lie back and think of BLM. Come on, man! Rioting and looting--not window shutters--give the impression the area is "unsafe" and "troublesome." Via Instapundit.

Non-lethal lasers--and how China naturally abuses the technology.

So these people claim they were "only" feeding the rioters and looters? Armies march on their stomachs. Arrest the logistics "tail" just like you'd arrest the violent "teeth."

Enforcing sanctions. Can Iran bypass the sanctions as they have in the past to some degree?

Watching the communist (BLM and Antifa)  riots and looting alienate Americans, I'm reminded of a Nazi bookstore that set up in my Detroit neighborhood when I was in high school. Communists in their red vests and helmets marched outside protesting them. A friend and I went to watch. I mocked the Nazis, yelling "Heil Shicklgruber!" at the barricaded Nazis. But what was really funny was when the blue collar guys ran out of the bar across the street (probably there after their auto factory shift) and started yelling at the communists. The communists actually protested, "No, we're good! We're against the Nazis." The yelling men replied "You're as bad as they (the Nazis) are!" Times don't change much, it seems. Communists are just Nazis with media support.

Because there is as yet no replacement for mobile protected firepower.

The Navy wants long-range aerial sea mines. Excellent. That will hurt the Chinese navy. Mines are underappreciated.

I'm not sure this is satire, sadly.

Thank you drill sergeant for training my mind and my body!

Every time I hear "Build back better" I just shake my head over how lame that Biden election slogan is. It is truly awful. Terrible notion. A complete failure.

Abe announced his resignation as prime minister because his ulcerative colitis has returned. I hope he will be okay and that his successor will maintain close American-Japanese ties, which our defense secretaries reinforced.

Your periodic reminder that thinking "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded" is a crime against language.  Ah, tolerance.

How can any of this California taxing scheme even be legal? On the bright side, California has set the precedent that other states that wish to attract California billionaires can declare themselves sanctuary states exempt from California's extraterritorial money grab. Tip to Instapundit.

Polling data caused changes of opinion where basic human decency had no effect. Remember this when you vote.

The Russians exercised their Pacific fleet near America. The threat is likely to come from the south.

Last week I noted that the Saudis would naturally want nukes if Iran gets them. The Saudis had funded Pakistan's nuclear program to get a "Moslem bomb" just in case. It is doubtful that Pakistan will supply warheads these days.

Just ... wow. Listen to the science, indeed.

I'm reading Six Frigates by Ian W. Toll.  In 1797, when Philadelphia lost 10% of its population in an epidemic, this stood out: "Jefferson professed to regret the general decline in civility: 'Men who have been intimate all their lives cross the street to avoid meeting and turn their heads another way, lest they should be obliged to touch their hats (that is, to extend a greeting).'" Let's not pretend that until Trump we were always a united people. We can get through our current divisions. But let's try to tamp down the violence before the fabric of our society is strained even more because there is no guarantee we will get through today's decline in civility. Although I continue to hope that 99% of the decline in civility today is coming from the 1% of a-holes on Twitter all the time. Well, them and the barbarians sacking our cities.

Huh. Still, I'd like to know how the police let the suspect walk around the front of his car to the driver side to reach the point of risking Blake picking up a weapon. At that point, the police had the choice of shooting Blake or risking Blake kill or wound the officers. It seems like the police could have stopped him before they pretty much had to shoot him. We'll see.

Yeah, I don't get it either.


Hurricane Laura slammed into our Gulf coast. The storm was bad, but so far it seems that the death toll was reduced by advanced preparations. Let's hope the recovery effort goes smoothly.

Since dropping TV services I've been using YouTube more. Lately I've been watching Tim Pool more. He's a lefty and I have a lot of differences with him. But he is interesting in that he will--reluctantly but enthusiastically--vote for Trump based on the obvious Democratic support for the far Left sacking of our cities the last three months, and the left's abandonment of civil liberties in favor of identity politics which reeks of racism (and every other "ism," I'll add).

China has a secret weapon that cripples India's navy. And given that secret weapon, this Indian decision just increases the power of that secret weapon. Oh how the CCP rulers must be smiling as India deprives its military of good weapons.

Xi Jinping indicates that China has no intention of loosening its grip on its Tibet conquest.

Politics! Science!

I saw an article at the top of my Yahoo! news that said X number of people died during the Republican convention. Do you wonder why I despise our news media? What the ef did the latter have to do with the former? Nothing! Oh, and I never saw that headline for the Democratic convention. The bias is scary and that kind of putting a thumb on the electoral scale can't be rewarded with political victory.

Yeah, I don't get it either.


Enjoy your prison time jihad fangirl.

This week Michigan exceeded 100,000 cumulative Xi Jinping Flu COVID-19 cases. Tell me that if we had a Republican governor that the media wouldn't have gone into overdrive noting this "grim milestone."

What is Erdogan's major malfunction, anyway?  Is France the country to get Turkey to back down from war with Greece? Is Turkey itching to be expelled from NATO by pushing Greece to war in this crisis? I don't want it to reach that point because I don't want Russia to have free access through the Turkish Straits. And I'm hoping that post-Erdogan that Turkey can return to being a good NATO ally. And again, I really hope we've quietly withdrawn our nuclear warheads from the Incirlik air base.

Hahahaha!


It saddens me that it is up to Trump of all people to defend a free market, rule of law, and strong defense America that doesn't ignore blue collar people. And it is bizarre that Trump is needed to defend the idea that rioting and looting are not acceptable. But it is what it is.

Over the last few years the United States has finally started to combat Chinese espionage in the United States. It may frighten the non-professionals collaborating with the Chinese.

Could be. Sometimes it seems like the Democratic strategy is to blackmail America by saying that they will encourage the sacking of American cities until Americans reject Trump. Although for some on the Left, even that isn't enough. Only the rejection of America itself will do. Democrats claim Trump is stoking fear and evoking a "dark" future. But Democrats are the ones stoking riots, arson, and looting that create the justifiable fear of a dark future. Still, there is a lot of time until the election and there are a lot of unknowns. So I won't assume that take is right. But I know how I'm voting. How can anybody reward what the Democrats are doing?

Brave man to demand debate and not indoctrination. Tip to Instapundit.

How is it even remotely a good idea to make them too smart to make bacon out of them? Via Instapundit.

Instead of invoking the Insurrection Act, maybe Trump should order a full 24/7 lockdown in Portland to battle the pandemic. I mean, while Democrats deny they need federal help to put down Marxist looters and rioters, Democrats keep saying they want Trump to do more to fight the Xi Jinping Flu rather than let states take the lead.

The blue collar shift to the Republicans.

I just don't get nuance. If France of all places can't contain the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic, who can? Face it, this ends when there is herd immunity, the virus mutates to be less deadly, or we get a vaccine.

Large protests over the rigged election continue in Belarus. But is that enough to make Lukashenko lose his nerve and resign? Or would that be the trigger that sends Russian forces into the country?

Hezbollah will step back a bit in Lebanese politics to try to ride out the Lebanese rage over the port explosion and resume normal programming once people aren't paying as much attention again.

No! Way!

I hope Democrats return to sanity. I worked with Democrats at the state level for two decades and they were fine people, though I did not agree with them on policy for the most part. But I don't even recognize today's Democrats who I see at the national level. I hope the national voices don't reflect the state people. I don't like being disgusted with the Democrats. It seems wrong. But it is what it is--with ample evidence. I cannot trust them after seeing the Resistance in action for four years.

System Change?

Are internal shifts about to change China and is a change in Belarus' status going to change Europe?

The assumption of the world has been that Europe is obsessed with economics and indifferent to geopolitics. The assumption about China is that it has become a great power and challenger to the United States. My view is that Europe has been on vacation from history, and that it will end, and that China’s pretense to power is unsustainable. If we were to hit the jackpot with two of the global centers of power changing their behavior, then the world would indeed change.

Interesting. I tend to agree with the author on both points--at least as far as the odds of those things, even if I don't have certainty for outcome or just timing.

How does that play out?

Let me add for fun that Europe is a geographic term that wants to be a single political entity. And China is a single political entity that could be a geographic term.

I'm hoping geography wins in both contests.

The Limits of "Understanding"

Russia is too paranoid for their (and our) good, but that's a valid point:

Russia cannot lose Belarus after losing the Baltics and Ukraine. Germany is today a liberal democracy with little military power. So was Germany in 1932. Things change.

But a Russia poised inside Belarus is a terrible threat to NATO states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania--especially to any NATO forces sent there--and Poland; as well as being a threat to Ukraine.

Nor can Russia's even justifiable fear be a license for Russia to control its neighbors. Where does that end?

Understanding Russia's fears is valid right up to the point that Russia uses that fear to justify conquering unwilling subjects.

UPDATE: And let me add that after the collapse of the Soviet empire from 1980-1991, NATO tried to balance Russian fears and the rights of countries to forge their own path.

While NATO expanded into former Soviet vassal states who requested NATO membership, NATO left those new members a void of NATO troops and logistics infrastructure-or even plans to defend the new frontier.

Heck, at one point America withdrew its last tank from Europe! Even Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 didn't end that military void in the east. The Obama administration attempted a glorious "Reset" with Russia!

It took Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine and repeated threats to Europeans--including nuclear weapons threats--to get NATO to take defending its new members seriously.

Bravo Russia. Will nobody in Russia tell Putin he is effing up royally?

David and Goliath

China continues to apply pressure on the Philippines to press China's illegal claims in the South China Sea:

The Philippine foreign ministry said it has lodged a diplomatic protest over the "illegal confiscation" by the Chinese coast guard in May of floating devices [near Scarborough Shoal], known as payao, that are used to catch fish.

It also "resolutely objected" to China issuing radio challenges to Philippine aircraft conducting maritime patrols in areas of the sea claimed by Manila.

One day the Philippines may need to win a battle against China and dig in on their islands:

The Philippines is far smaller than China, and if China makes even a small effort they can pound the Philippines unless Manila gets outside help. But in tiny wars over tiny islands, the Philippines can compete with China. And by competing in tiny wars, Manila compels China to risk war with outside powers (mainly America and Japan, but possibly South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Australia, too) by making an effort big enough to beat down the Philippines.

And if the Philippines does this, America could be the reserve resupply force:

So what if instead of using force we support the Philippines with an airlift to the outposts that China is besieging in the South China Sea?

We could airlift Filipino troops, supplies, and building materials to fortify the outposts against Chinese threats via their naval militia that rams and harasses the ships of the Philippines operating in what international law says are Manila's territorial waters.

Would China try to shoot down our helicopters in this Berlin Airlift in the South China Sea and risk war with America?

Or if the Philippines doesn't want to risk a fight, maybe the Philippines needs to switch to an information war effort.

Given the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic's direct effects and the reduction of remittances by overseas citizens due to the pandemic elsewhere--on top of the Chinese threat--the Philippines needs to be careful about risking war.

But something needs to change before China swamps the Philippines with their current strategy.

How Will Belarus Turn Out?

Will Russia invade Belarus? Russia certainly wants Belarus. The question is whether they are willing to pay the price.

This author says that domestic issues like Khabarovsk protests and the size of the problem will deter Russia absent clear indications that Lukashenko has failed to end the Belarus protests.

But this is odd:

The information fog that allowed Moscow to stealthily occupy and take Crimea and start its covert, hybrid war in the Donbas has lifted. A Kremlin invasion of Belarus and its consequences would be fully reported by social media in that country. Russian forces would look just as ugly on social media as President Bashar al-Assad’s troops did as they cracked down on protesters at the start of the Arab Spring in Syria.

The idea that Russia somehow hid their invasion of Crimea is nonsense. I was able to call that on February 28, 2014!

The whole "hybrid war" concept is "analysis paralysis" BS:

Good Lord people, Russian "hybrid warfare" is just Russian aggression that we pretend isn't happening. Sadly, there's nothing new or novel about that.

Russia would face 10,000,000 people and a pretty sizable expanse of territory to occupy. How many people would become anti-Russian if Putin invades? How many Belarusian security forces would side with Russia?

Just moving into Belarus will strain Russia's ability to mass reasonably effective units and and their logistics. If Belarusians mostly resist, standard counter-insurgency math says Russia would need 200,000 security forces to pacify the country. But if there isn't armed resistance by all Belarusians, that number can go down dramatically. And if significant Belarusian security forces join with the Russians that reduces Russia's burden.

Russia is already busy in the Donbas stalemate and in holding Crimea; and Russia is spending to sit in Syria while expanding roles in Libya. Does Putin want to add a resisting Belarus to his portfolio?

But can Russia afford to refrain from making an effort? Even if the idea of a "color revolution" spreading to Russia is nonsense, if Putin believes that could happen that makes intervening rather important to Russia.

We'll see if Lukashenko can do well enough to prevent Putin from pulling the trigger:

With the protests now in their third week — including rallies that brought out an estimated 200,000 people in Minsk on the last two Sundays — the 65-year-old president is shifting tactics. He is moving to squelch the demonstrations gradually with vague promises of reforms mixed with threats, court summonses and the selective jailing of leading activists.

Observers say the moves by Lukashenko to buy some time likely will see him holding onto power for now, although he almost certainly will face more challenges amid a worsening economy and simmering public anger.

Buying time also buys time for Russia to invade and rescue Lukashenko. But Lukashenko can't be sure a Russian invasion would be for the purpose of rescuing Lukashenko rather than replacing him with another less hated Russian ally.

As I speculated here, this might be the place for Putin's personally loyal National Guard to get their first big job.

Or maybe Russian allies inside Belarus will succeed in a coup of some sort--likely with Russian covert support--that spares Russia the need to invade.

UPDATE: Lock and load?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday the Kremlin has set up a reserve police force to support Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko but it would not be used unless the unrest there got out of control, Interfax news agency reported.

But would sending in Russian police expand the anger of protesters from just Lukashenko to Russia, too?

An invasion force will take much longer to get ready, I imagine.

UPDATE: Is Belarus unrest another part of the dissolution of the USSR?

That's an interesting take. Belarusians are fairly friendly to Russia despite being independent. But is the unrest pushing the people to reject Russia? Or would Russian intervention cause that rejection and final break with Russia?

Or might Russia force the Belarusians back into the empire and damn the hearts and minds? That could be expensive.

And I've never assumed the Russian empire is done fragmenting.

The Next American Century?

For decades, people have assured me that China will surpass America in economic power. I have been skeptical of such claims.

Don't write off America so fast:

Lost in much of the fretting (or boasting) about American declinism is the massive lead the American economy continues to hold over China, despite four decades of rapid growth for the latter. The total output of the US economy in 2019 was US$21.4 trillion, significantly larger than China’s output of US$14.3 trillion. On a per-capita basis, the division becomes more stark—US$65,280 to US$10,261 (at current US$).

America’s share of the world economy has remained virtually unchanged since 1980, when it accounted for 25.2 percent of world GDP. As of December 31st, 2018, the US share only dropped to 23.9 percent. Over the same period, Japan’s share of world GDP fell from 9.7 percent to 5.8 percent, while the European Union’s share fell from 34.6 percent to 22 percent. This suggests that China’s rise has been at the expense of other countries’ share of the global economy, rather than that of the US.

Further, Chinese growth is slowing down. And their innovation is not the best.If Chinese espionage can be defeated, can Chinese innovation continue?

I've addressed the issue many times, including here, here, and here this year alone.

The author of that initial article concludes:

While the rise and fall of great powers is a historical given, the significant lead held by the US in economic clout and national wealth, technological innovation and global finance alongside China’s internal challenges of low productivity, demographic decline, and chronic underconsumption, suggests to me that Pax Americana is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

As I've noted about China's rise:

In the future, when people speak of the "American century," we should be able to respond, "be more specific."

That doesn't mean that China can't dominate their portion of Asia--for a while. And that is dangerous enough for America and for our allies close to China.

But don't panic. American power is still in good shape.

UPDATE: Is China peaking?

Rather than a ‘Chinese century’, there is a danger of a long-run economic slump that may spell a ‘Chinese decade’, meaning China’s economy could peak before it can overtake the United States. Controversial goals, then, such as full reunification with Hong Kong, should be achieved while China’s relative power and influence are still on a rising trajectory.

I wondered if China could hold their lead if achieved by 2050. China might not make that.

But notice the second part, that China might try to achieve goals when they have peak China.

But I find the author's essentially asserting that opposing China will just make China meaner is just nonsense. Let's keep our powder dry, eh? Heck, Russia might want to think about that, too.

Keep the Jihadis Atomized and Fearful

ISIL is trying to regroup in Iraq and Syria:

More than 10,000 IS fighters remain at large in Iraq and Syria, more than two years after the militant group's claimed defeat, Vladamir Voronokov, the head of the UN’s Counter-Terrorism Office said.

"Small cells" of jihadists continue to move freely between the two countries to carry out ambushes, arson, and gun and bomb attacks, while the group and its affiliates have also claimed to be behind recent terrorism in Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen and West Africa, he added.

I question the 10,000 IS fighters estimate. Is that full-timers only or full-and part-timers? Are non-fighter supporters included? Does that include family members of actual fighters? I doubt it is the first because if it was I think we'd see a lot more attacks.

In the recent past, reports of "fighters" included family members fleeing with the terrorists.

Still, don't make the mistake of 2011 and assume America has no role in keeping Sunni Arab terrorists in Iraq defeated. Kill them all.

UPDATE: The United States will reduce troop strength in Iraq to 3,500 by November. Is this enough?

I thought 5,000 would have been too little in 2011.

Luckily, American and pro-American forces in Syria screen Iraq's western border now, so the danger is lower. We'll see.

The West Berlin of the East?

China's ability to invade Taiwan increases every month. America and Taiwan need to do much more to keep China from being willing to start an invasion:

The trouble is that the U.S. is only starting to realize how much it would actually take to deter China from attacking Taiwan, or defeat any assault.

The essay goes over a lot of ground that I've gone over on TDR since the beginning.

The issue is more than a question about Taiwan's fate.

A break in our commitment to defend allies could be catastrophic over time. As long as we have allies, China has to measure itself to that loose alliance rather than just compare itself to America.

Taiwan needs to spend much more to fight tooth and nail.

Free Taiwan is a potential threat to the CCP--and should act on it.

And obviously, America needs much more anti-ship power--and must fix the Navy surface warfare "community"--and do it loudly so that China doesn't think they can easily win, as I worried in a recent data dump:

If our Navy leadership is the problem, our naval superiority might be illusory. But I fear it is given SEAL, shipbuilding, collision, and the Roosevelt fiascos. Let's hope this isn't correct or if it is right--and certainly blaming sailors is wrong--that we can fix the leadership problem. And while we do that let's hope the Chinese don't believe our Navy is already defeated and put that theory to the test. And for added fun, the Chinese leadership could very well over-estimate their strength. Have a super sparkly day.

And so far I'm not comforted.

Although part of that effort to overcome China's ability to control the seas should be to make China divert resources from their sea control push by making China worry about our land power--and worry about inland problems in general.

One thing that sets it apart is that it does not dismiss China's ability to invade as so many writers seem to do. I've long felt China has the ability. And don't doubt the intent.

Will the free West (that now includes Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, to be sure) stand with Taiwan despite the odds as the free West once guarded West Berlin from the USSR despite the odds?

Anyway, do read all of that first article.

Boots on the Regolith

The United States Space Force will have a role in defending America's role on the Moon. Don't forget the ground troops.

This would be the reason for having a space service:

The competition for the moon between the Unites States and China is being closely watched by the Defense Department as the military expects to play a role protecting U.S. access to cislunar space.

One concern for the Pentagon is the possibility that China establishes a presence on the moon before the United States and tries to set the international rules of behavior in space, said Brig. Gen. Steven Butow, director of the space portfolio at the Defense Innovation Unit. ...

The DIU-led report says U.S. participation in a cislunar economy “will require security and a stabilizing military presence.” That responsibility presumably would fall on the U.S. Space Force. The service would provide “surveillance, aids to navigation, and help when required.”

"Help when required" will require personnel either in space or on the lunar surface. Which means Space Force needs ground troops:

A small special forces ground component is necessary for Space Force. If you want to go after a space station, orbiting satellites for close work, the Moon, or even Earth very rapidly from space. Call them Space, Moon, Orbital, Down teams: SMOD.

... Wait, Space Marines Orbital Detachment! I'm feeling more comfortable with SMOD.

Dusty boots on the regolith will be required to defend America's role on the Moon.

Command and Control. And Catastrophe?

Weapons get all the attention. But if you can't command and control them, it is just so much expensive wreckage on a battlefield controlled by the enemy.

American battlefield command posts haven't done enough to erase their status as "missile magnets" on a conventional battlefield.

Russia demonstrated the problem:

In the brief but devastating Battle of Zelenopillya in July 2014, Russian forces targeted several Ukrainian battalions with rocket artillery, conducting one of the largest artillery barrages on the European continent since World War II. The US Army took note of Russian sensor-to-shooter capabilities and recognized that conditions of the modern battlefield would require its brigade combat teams (BCTs) to find ways to mitigate this type of threat through improvements in mobility and survivability as well as a reduction in the signatures of BCT command posts and tactical assembly areas. If not, Army units risked the same consequences suffered by Ukrainian units at Zelenopillya: in minutes, their vehicles were almost all destroyed, thirty soldiers were killed, and hundred more wounded.

I've admitted that the Russian capability scares the Hell out of me.

Not enough, according to that first author, has been done to fix the problem:

The recommendations made in this piece—reducing footprints, rethinking bandwidth needs and interoperability, and enabling tailored acquisitions—do not represent a significant departure from the original mandate to improve Army headquarters’ mobility and survivability in the transition from counterinsurgency to large-scale combat operations. However, the inability to solve the structural problems arising from the retrofit and replacement of legacy systems is a risk to both the mission and the force. Pairing on-the-move mission command with at-the-halt capabilities hampers commanders’ ability to maintain tempo. Mobility enhancement and dispersion enable commanders to reduce the threat to command posts and keep vulnerable elements out of the range rings of the enemy. ...

The Army doesn’t get to choose its next conflict or adversary, but it can prepare for the fight through investments in command nodes, communications, and trust in commanders’ equipment requests. A blind brigade will never be able to mass and synchronize effects. On the other hand, a brigade enabled by highly mobile and redundant mission command, bound together by flexibility in tactics and communication, will stand ready to meet and defeat adversaries on a future battlefield.

Roger that.

UPDATED: In a related matter, just what is artillery fire supposed to achieve to win the battle?

Let the Nuclear Games Begin!

The United States started the process to implement "snapback" sanctions on Iran under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. But there are complications.

Here we go!

The United States submitted a letter to the 15-member U.N. Security Council alleging Iranian non-compliance, in theory starting a 30-day process that could lead to the "snapback" of U.N. sanctions even though major powers like Russia reject the U.S. stance and say they will not restore the penalties.

America is making good on its vow to seek such sanctions if the UN would not extend an arms embargo on Iran.

But Russia's rejection of our move seems to bolster my belief that there is no such thing as "snapback" sanctions--and they must be imposed by an affirmative vote of the UN Security Council, which can be blocked by a veto by a permanent member (coughrussiaandchinacough):

Can the United Nations charter be amended by this deal to carve out an exception to the veto power of the 5 permanent members of the Security Council?

Here's what the Chapter V, Article 27 of the UN charter says about the veto:

1. Each member of the Security Council shall have one vote.
2. Decisions of the Security Council on procedural matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members.
3. Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting.

Because I can see the Russians or Chinese objecting to the whole notion that UNSC resolutions can be reimposed after 30 days of inaction by the Security Council. What do we do when the Russians and Chinese (probably correctly, but it has been a long time since I had an international law class) argue that this deal provision is invalid and that no sanctions resolutions can go into effect without 9 votes, including the concurrence of the five permanent members, and they will not go along with it?

This is going to be fascinating. I think Russia's Lavrov ran rings around John Kerry, who was responsible for negotiating the deal on Iran's America's behalf.

Brilliant Idea, I Must Say

This article argues for using containerized weapons on commercial container ships taken into Navy service to make missile barges:

Put simply, we already have modular weapon systems that would work when operated off the decks of cargo ships, and we’ve already proven that weapons of that sort can be leveraged to engage targets identified by aircraft… That means this concept would require very little in the way of infrastructure building or development–which equates to both cost and time savings.

That sounds so familiar. Oh, right:

Our Navy defends our nation within the incompatible and unforgiving boundaries formed by the tyrannies of distance and numbers. We struggle to build enough ships both capable of deploying globally and powerful enough for fighting first-rate opponents. Operating within a network-centric Navy, auxiliary cruisers could once again play a valuable role in projecting naval power. Using modular systems installed on civilian hulls, auxiliary cruisers could handle many peacetime roles; free scarce warships for more demanding environments; add combat power within a networked force; and promote the global maritime partnership.

Our Navy is surely superior to any conceivable combination of potential foes, alarmism notwithstanding. Yet as a global power, our sea power cannot be narrowly defined by our superb warships able to win conventional sea-control campaigns. We have many objectives at sea. Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers could provide the numbers we need to achieve our maritime objectives. The tyranny of numbers matters to the United States Navy.

To be fair, I wrote that assessment of American naval power in 2007 before China's naval shipbuilding reached its current level.

I went on to describe using standard shipping containers to house weapons and other systems mounted on container ships.

And I noted the ability to rely on external sensors for firing the auxiliary cruiser weapons:

Cooperative Engagement Capability could allow a Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser with a SUW [surface warfare] Mission Package to have its Harpoons fired by a distant warship or airborne platform. Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers could not initiate a strike against a distant target, but would be additional platforms that contribute to the saturation of the enemy’s defenses and complicate enemy strikes. AAW [anti-aircraft warfare] Mission Packages could similarly be plugged in for air defense coverage.

I adapted that suggestion for a power projection platform, which Military Review published. But even in that article I noted the purely Navy aspect of the suggestion.

It would have been nice to get a citation in a footnote. But perhaps I'm overly sensitive about that since I mentioned that when I linked to the Proceedings article cited in that initial article.

Still, getting some credit isn't as important as getting the capability.

Weekend Data Dump

Will the American Javelin ATGM be tested against Russian tank-mounted active protection systems?

China is backing off of its pandemic aggressiveness abroad: "'There's a reflection that we should not let nationalism or hotheadedness somehow kidnap our foreign policy,' Xu Quinduo, a commentator for state-run broadcaster China Radio International, told the Times. 'Tough rhetoric should not replace rational diplomacy.'" Riding the nationalist tiger is dangerous. But has China really decided to ease off or is this a pause before spurring the tiger on? And if so, how bad is it inside China?

I guess I don't understand why there is such an outcry among non-Native Americans about the Washington football team's "Redskins" name. Does anybody imagine that the team named itself in order to provide fans a name that denigrates or insults the team? Obviously, the team was named to inspire pride in fans. Life is funny.

Don't get me started on the unforgivable 2018 Democratic/media attempt to smear Kavanaugh. Yeah, that outrage is not forgotten and it is not forgiven. That ended my willingness to vote for Democrats at lower levels of government. If my drains work, I once thought, why not reelect the Democratic drain commissioner? After Kavanaugh? Screw 'em. I decided I'd never vote for any Democrat again. For anything.

Jesus was not a socialist. But if you really think he was a socialist, aren't you admitting that socialism requires the Son of God who can perform miracles? Short of that, just who is capable of implementing that "true" socialism that supposedly hasn't yet been tried based on the evidence of all of them failing? Tip to Instapundit.

A war of nerves between American and Syrian forces in northeast Syria continues--with an American helicopter strike to make a point. Funny, it seems just like yesterday that people were going insane wrongly claiming America had abandoned the Kurds there. But I still think we have to decide exactly what we are doing there.

Around the world people understand that mass mail voting is vulnerable to fraud. Do Democrats here not understand that problem or understand it all too well? It's almost as if Democrats don't actually believe Trump is a dictator who would be the one to take advantage of opportunities for voter fraud, eh? Tip to Instapundit.

Democracy dies in vagueness (or how to spin a banana into an apple). Plus outright distortion. High ranking people need long prison terms for the Russia collusion hoax and much of the media deserves bankruptcy as penance for their dishonest role. Tip to Instapundit.

How weird is 2020 getting? Did I just loop into the Flintstones universe?

Yawn. Why I yawn.

Just when you think Democrats have run out of insane Trump conspiracies to believe in. They're nuts. Babbling loony tune crazy take-away-sharp-objects people. I'm honestly stunned at this fantasy world hallucinating. You just know this will be a reason for Pelosi to start new impeachment proceedings right after Trump wins reelection.

The Iraqi prime minister says Iraq still needs America, as Iraq battles ISIL and Iranian-controlled militias. And we need to help Iraq do those things--and to push them to rule of law. I hope talk of reducing American troops in Iraq doesn't lead to a withdrawal like in 2011. On the other hand, it would be nice to leverage our presence into firmer efforts by Iraq to rein in the pro-Iran militias.

Recall what the Democrats have done so far to get rid of Trump: "There was the first impeachment effort, the Beltway punditry in early 2017 calling for his removal by coup if necessary, the voting machine suits, the Clinton-Obama-Steele subversion of the Trump campaign and transition, the Hollywood assassination chic, the effort to take out former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, the farce of the 25th Amendment that included the bathos of high federal officials contemplating wearing wires in private conservations (sic) with the president to the psychodrama of Professor Bandy Lee testifying before Congress about Trump’s mental state, the silly Emolument Clause gambit (Trump has lost over $1 billion while in office and taking no salary), the subversion of the FISA courts, the Russian hoax, Robert Mueller’s two-year long and $35 million witch hunt, the fabricated Steele dossier implanted in the bowels of the Obama government and media, the one-phone-call impeachment circus, the revolt of the retired generals, and what has rightly lately been called 'coup porn'” the hysteria over Ukraine and the caricaturing of Trump in 2020 as Typhoid Mary, Herbert Hoover, and Bull Connor as the Left weaponized the contagion, quarantine, and rioting." And that impressive list leaves out the effort to get Electors to violate their oaths and refuse to vote for Trump in the Electoral College and swing the vote to Clinton. Now tell me that exploiting security flaws in all-mail voting to commit voter fraud is the one thing they won't do to get their Great Orange Whale.

China is not involved in all South China Sea disputes.

Thank goodness a tyrant doesn't have that kind of power.

Can we admit that locking down has consequences as the issue of re-locking down all across America is raised for the fall? "'It’s a re-traumatization, really,' said east Tennessee therapist Allysen Efferson, who emphasized that the 'ever-evolving criteria' for re-opening would only hammer at the nation’s already shattered psyche. The nation quickly went from '14 days to slow the spread' in March to 'lock everything down until there’s a vaccine,' except for ignored calls for social distancing with a historic breakout of civil unrest." We've had over 5 months to prepare to cope. That's a different situation than in March when so much was unknown and nobody knew what was happening or whether we'd have time to produce what we need to cope. We have to trust people and also admit that a lot can't be trusted. Which means I will continue to operate carefully because I am not young and because I have a mother I don't want to infect. But I'm not everyone. And at some point the entire country can't be made to pay the price that only some of us should pay.

The X-37B program was honored. I honestly don't know why it isn't a Space Force asset.

I've read that African Americans could vote for Trump based on pretty good polling numbers about him. This election would be a good time for African Americans to deny Democrats an automatic vote in every election. Remember, and this isn't my observation, "The worst place for a black person to live in America is a Democrat-controlled city." Maybe Democrats wouldn't take them for granted in the future and maybe Republicans would think it isn't futile to pursue African-American votes.

The Syrian multi-war lingers on with 10 or so killed per day in it. The post says Iraq was bloodier but the context indicates that was written in error. Syria has been bloodier than Iraq.

Cyber war goes on all around us and a large part of it is done by private entities and companies.

Why yes, yes we have lost our minds over this Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. The overreaction was understandable when you consider the unknowns of March and April. Now we need to deal with this a little more narrowly with threatened populations without destroying our economy, which is how we pay for coping with the pandemic. Consider this chart and tell me if our media has been educating us or trying to panic us:

Honestly, the demanded universal lockdown reaction feels like it is being done in the name of penance for vague sins by America more than public health.

Knee cracking without pain is likely no problem. That fits with my experience. It's funny. When I'm feeling good I ignore it. But if I feel sick or blah for some reason, I wonder if the knee-cracking is a sign of some deeper problem. It isn't. Woo!

The times that Republicans were challenged on whether they are "natural born citizens."

A PSA by The Dignified Rant to Democrats: What we have in New York City harbor is the Statue of Liberty and not the Statue of Unrestricted Immigration. It celebrates our Declaration of Independence and Revolution and not open borders. You're welcome. I'm glad I can clear that up.

The United States will sell more advanced versions of the F-16 to Taiwan.

I am horrified at the fantasies that Democrats believe, as represented by their convention speakers. Reality-based party, indeed. Do the speakers really believe their entire party is made up of the Twitter universe of fanatics they apparently cater to?

I have long opposed non-law enforcement agencies having their own armed forces. I'm not overly worried that the Obama administration could have passed those weapons on to leftists. Although inventory sloppiness and theft isn't out of bounds to check on. But the basic problem remains. Maybe Democrats will now agree given their insane talk of Trump's private army. Hey, let's make their insanity work for a smaller more limited federal government for once! Tip to Instapundit.

Another f*ck was added to the clusterf*ck that present-day Mali represents. The president dissolved parliament and resigned under that pressure. The coup troops promise a new election. While it might improve things, this will just stir the cluster a bit and set the precedent of future coups which could be for good or bad reasons. No lasting good will come of this, I think.

Just ... wow.

The Democratic Party officially nominated Biden to run for president. All that's left to prove is whether their voters really will vote for a ham sandwich with a (D) after its name.

Terrorism hasn't taken time off for social distancing in Germany, it seems: "An Iraqi-born man deliberately drove his car into motorcycles along a stretch of Berlin highway, leaving at least one person in life-threatening condition in what German officials said Wednesday was a terror attack." No good deed goes unpunished.

Peak Stupid is pushed ever higher.

Well, that's not how "tramp stamps" work on me. But perhaps I've shared too much.

How awful is our media? After 5 months our media has still failed to inform the public accurately about the pandemic. On the bright side, the media has been too busy failing on the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic issue to maintain the panic over climate change. And perhaps the media will have a little patience to see how things work out in totality before judging responses to the pandemic. We have a way to go before judging, don't we? What I'm really impressed with is the ability of Sweden to have stayed the course despite universal condemnation over many months.

Convictions like this are more valuable for reducing jihadi cooperation out of fear of being nailed by counter-terrorism operations.

So far I'm doing fine without network TV. I know there will be some shows I'll miss from network TV when they revive. But I'll get over it. And maybe if sports had more interest to me--but my teams aren't or won't be playing any time soon--that would be different, despite woke sports turning me off. As for my already limited television news (I cut down greatly this last year to escape the insanity), I'm getting by with audio podcasts and YouTube. So there you go.

I'm hoping that bigger fish will face prison time after Clinesmith, but I'm assuming they'll get away with it. I'm sad I feel that way but rule of law has failed so far and I don't think I can count on it being restored. I hope I'm too cynical.

If Trump wins in November I think it is safe to assume that Pelosi will immediately begin impeachment proceedings for the insane Mailboxgate.

An American destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait in a maneuver designed--and seen--as supporting Taiwan against Chinese threats. Not that the strait would be the place American warships would stand their ground if shooting started.

And that would be different than Antifa's violence the last four years and BLM's violent activities the last few months ... how? To be fair, the way the media and their Democratic allies have been stoking division, there is reason to worry about violence around the election. God help us all. May calm prevail.

Seeking vengeance for 2016, Hillary Clinton burns down the Democratic National Convention with her speech time.

Last week I mentioned the jihadi takeover of a Mozambique port. Strategypage has more. Mozambique is corrupt and poor. The military is weak. And the Russian mercenaries the government has hired just guard natural gas fields. On the bright side, the jihadis have a small base of support there. Still, the Ansar al-Sunna jihadis hold the port.

Putin may lead a paranoid and ramshackle crumbling empire made worse by delusions of grandeur, but never forget the old KGB man is pretty much evil as news of another poisoning of a prominent Putin critic, Alexei Navalny, has taken place. It's Putin's weapon of choice.

Teacher unions are holding American kids hostage.  I've noticed the prominence of communist groups in school reopening protests that take place around Detroit which the local media doesn't understand. Blue collar workers who provide the teachers the things they need to live have to work; but teachers won't provide the education that the blue collar workers' children need to move up the economic ladder. I hope voters remember that at school millage voting time. I know I will. Tip to Instapundit.

China isn't playing well with others under our phase one trade deal, and America should react accordingly.

I believe the proper response by parents to that school district request is "Sod off, wanker!" And then sue the district. Although funny enough, this whole distance-learning could really backfire badly on the teacher-industrial complex if a lot of people see exactly what their children are being taught. Perhaps I've been hasty in promoting in-school learning wherever possible. Heck, maybe when teachers go back to school they should have body cams just like police have to wear. Tip to Instapundit.

Have we run out of Confederate statues already? To be fair, the protesters are morons ignorant of history.

Obama said that Trump shouldn't use the military as "props?" Given that President Obama ordered a surge of troops in Afghanistan resulting in much higher American casualties all to make good on a campaign promise only to abandon the surge prior to victory in order to support a campaign reelection narrative, that charge is obscene.

The stupidity is stunning.

Is anybody really surprised that Saudi Arabia might want nuclear weapons if Iran looks like it might get them?  The Saudis have long had a small force of ballistic missiles that could have been equipped with Pakistani warheads if the Pakistanis agreed. One of the reasons I was strongly against the Iran nuclear deal is that I believed it would inevitably lead to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. People who think it stopped Iran are so wrong that it hurts my spleen. Until the mullah regime is gone, that threat remains.

The United States thinks that China is secretly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Certainly, there is little transparency in Peking. Have a super sparkly day.

Will Sirte be the westernmost part of Egypt-backed East Libya (Cyrenaica) while Turkey-backed West Libya (Tripolitania) lies beyond that? Of course, the West Libya faction--possibly deterred from attacking Sirte by Egypt's warnings--want to make Sirte the DMZ.

I'm not sure why Californians are complaining about rolling electricity blackouts. They're getting what they asked for over many decades and so should simply lie back and think of Gaia.

"Chinese officials in Wuhan Province hid important information about coronavirus from the country’s central government, even as the virus spread rapidly, according to a Wednesday report. ... The intelligence report also maintains that high ranking Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing withheld coronavirus information from the world and the World Health Organization (WHO) as they tried to gather more data from Wuhan, the Times reported." There is almost no news coming out of China. Because the CCP doesn't want news coming out of China. I don't assume no news is good news.

"Germany welcomed military aircraft from Israel to its airspace on Thursday in their first joint combat exercises in German territory as both air forces praised the intensive cooperation between the two countries." Joint combat exercises? That's amazing! Who knew Germany had a military?

I strongly disagree with Trump that it was a mistake to liberate Iraq.

Democrats have spent four years screaming hate at Trump supporters and telling their own supporters to fear Trump supporters, and Biden has the nerve to say Trump should be defeated to end the hate, fear, and division of the last four years? Non-leftists won't be fooled by this, will they?

Extreme pattern recognition.

The Navy needs to get to the bottom of this. Good Lord.

The United States is trying to purge America of Chinese malware and malgear. Good. I've long worried about that as a threat to our carriers. But the threat is much broader.

It's an interesting presidential election. Republicans have to persuade undecideds and persuadables that Trump has impulse control; while Democrats have to persuade those voters that Biden has brain impulses. Is it me or has Trump been rather restrained the last couple months in public appearances? Two efforts by "journalists" to bait Trump with outlandish "questions" failed to provoke an angry lashing as it would have any time in the previous 4 years. To me, the restraint was noticeable.

Democratic leaders display that they understand that unruly protests are bad when it affects them. Baby steps, people. Baby steps. Yeah, I am the optimist.

AI pilots did pretty good in simple air combat scenarios. AI pilots don't need to be better than human pilots. Just good enough to inflict sufficient attrition on human pilots who require a lot of money and years of practice to get good at their skills. Do that and eventually, the manufactured AI pilots will have an average skill level better than the humans. The Japanese experienced that (without AI, of course) in World War II.

Woke privilege, eh?

Mean girl.

I assume Iranian agents are behind these killings inside Iraq.

I say California should go for it!  They're smart enough to get "true socialism" right!

Can you even imagine the outrage that the media would deploy if Republicans removed the Libertarian Party from the ballot?!

The UAE and Greece decided to exercise their aircraft together on Crete, in a sign of unity against Turkey.

I see that Maduro is learning much from his Iranian friends: "The government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is blocking U.S. citizens in the country from leaving, rebuffing efforts by Washington to arrange humanitarian evacuation flights, a State Department spokeswoman said on Thursday."

Good idea, although without Hezbollah to set it off the urgency might not be as great.

Huh (link fixed) .And that was for a city council seat. How much more of this will we see from people who think they are literally saving America from Hitler?

I wish this was satire:


So, did China screw the pooch when building their South China Sea artificial island runways which make them too dangerous for high performance fighter aircraft?

Hahahahah! The scumball a-holes are too proud of their violence to think about OPSEC:

Of course, jihadis also like to film their atrocities and terrorism to recruit more nutballs. But here, we have the legal system to make that dangerous for the "recruiters." Round them up and prosecute them while they are careless. Tip to Instapundit.

The Army future warfare science fiction collection. This was my entry that didn't make the cut.

The Orange Man Bad virtual convention ended. They made history by naming the first person of color non-Trump to the VP slot.

I prefer to ignore the BS, but given that so many people believe the BS it is good that someone is willing to expose the BS. "Perhaps the most interesting question raised by these books is why, when they are so badly written, self-indulgent, and intellectually nugatory, when they are so plainly written in the spirit of what Karl Popper called reinforced dogmatism, they should be so popular among the Western intelligentsia. Let us hope that this is not a question for an Edward Gibbon of the next millennium to answer." Smart people can be really stupid. Via Instapundit.

Turkey says it discovered natural gas in the Black Sea. Who knows how much is recoverable and how ling it will take to bring on line.

Even if every blue mailbox in America is removed, anybody who wants to mail a ballot could do it from wherever they pick up their incoming mail. Worst. Voter. Suppression. Effort. Ever.

Pakistan is forced to do the right thing. And now Pakistan's heartfelt struggle to get around their paper commitment begins.

This would be hilarious if the paranoid morons didn't believe it was true:


One death is a tragedy, but 33,000 is a sweet book deal. Via Instapundit.

If the IAEA is given access to those suspected Iranian nuclear facilities it will only be because the Iranians have moved prohibited material and scrubbed the site.


If the NCAA hadn't nuked college football this news might be significant.

How "fact checks" work. Democrats did cut out "under God" at their convention but since it was not done at all the recitations of the pledge Trump is called out for error.  Had a Democrat made a similar charge about Republicans, the "fact check" would have called Democrats accurate because some Republicans did something. Ef the "fact checkers."

The Charlottesville "fine people" hoax, as long as Biden has made that lie the central focus of his campaign.

Illegal immigrant who was featured at the Democratic convention to further the Orange Man Bad theme was ordered deported by two Democratic presidents. Huh.

I have a bad feeling about this. Tip to Instapundit.

Last summer I figured that if the Democrats nominated Biden it was a signal that the Democrats were assuming Trump would win reelection and that the Democrats didn't want to waste a viable candidate on a Viking funeral ride. Warren stayed in the race as a loyal Democrat to deny socialist Bernie the chance to take over the Democratic Party. Then the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic struck and gave Democrats a chance to tank the economy and they took it (Fifteen days to bend the curve? Screw that! Lock it down!). Sadly they still had Biden. Did the Democrats screw up big time by nominating Biden--the candidate of losing--when a once-in-a-century pandemic actually gave Democrats a chance?

"Sophia Banks, a plant-based chef[.]" Big, if true. I am Groot.

American charged with spying for Russia. As a former Army captain, wouldn't it be better to recall him to service in order to face the military justice system?

Inconvenient reality.

Did China's Houston consulate--the one we shut down--really send riot tips to BLM?

Standing with Taiwan to commemorate their defense of their independence. And since then, Taiwan has become a free democracy with a larger claim to help from the West to defend themselves from Chinese aggression.

The Army successfully tested an integrated air defense system.