In the January 5th data dump I noted the colonies that China is establishing across Africa. Strategypage looks at them, too, noting they are different than the colonist-based efforts around their borders that for centuries have ethnically cleansed regions to make them Chinese and so part of the empire. But in Africa, the colonists do arrive, just later in the process. And African countries are worrying. As are other countries faced with the bribes and trade deals that lead to colonists who the motherland will of course "protect" if they get in trouble. Protection will require political control eventually.
Nice work if you can get it (tip to The Morning Briefing).
I rarely hear our special forces troops called "Green Berets" as they are referred to in this article. I thought the term went out of style after Vietnam. Am I wrong about that?
In last week's data dump I noted that but for major collusion, that the Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders might have taken control of the Democratic Party in 2016. Democrats are starting to worry that Sanders might pull that off this year. The same trends that promoted the outsider Trump to lead the Republican Party are pushing Sanders. The article notes that both Trump and Sanders got 44% of each party's votes. I mistakenly thought Sanders got more. But perhaps I was trying to factor in caucuses that don't measure votes. Or maybe I'm just mistaken. Can the Democratic Party establishment rig the process again? Or would it take someone as ruthless as a Clinton to orchestrate that kind of thumb on the scales? Bernie is ruthless enough to use the figurative gulags on his foes, but he's the insurgent and not the establishment. His ruthlessness in the face of being maneuvered out of the nomination again might stay the hands of the establishment out of fear Bernie's supporters will stay home in November in anger at his defeat. Or maybe the gray apparatchiki are fully ruthless enough. I don't know.
The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards denied that reports of bulldozers at the Ukrainian airliner wreckage site means Iran is altering evidence, saying "We didn't move the wreckage of the aircraft, we didn't change the scene, we didn't move the air defence system, and we didn't (alter) the radar readings." Aren't those some oddly specific denials coming out of nowhere?
I suspect Sanders would lose the November election. But I resist the idea of wanting the most extreme candidate as an opponent because it polarizes the voters. I base that on the theory that one should want an opponent who isn't a disaster if they win. I'd rather have that situation than a high stakes polarizing candidate who you are more likely to defeat but who, if they win, is more likely to be highly objectionable. And yes, the contemptible Sanders would be a disaster. But polarizing politics is rewarded these days with our social media-driven pace of news cycles. We'll see how actual voters judge it this year, I guess.
I think Pelosi is about a drink away from going on about our precious bodily fluids. She has gone full Jack (D) Ripper.
This article notes that Turkey is building up its navy after decades of not investing much in it. This makes sense given that I've repeatedly noted that the end of the Cold War and the break up of the USSR dramatically changed Turkey's strategic environment. Turkey had been on the losing end of a number of wars with Russia when Russia had overland access to Turkish territory both west and east of the Black Sea. Russia is pushed back by NATO control in the west and independent former Soviet states in the east. So yeah, a navy is possible now and not a waste of resources better spent defending the land borders. And Turkey is out of the F-35 program, so that comment is confusing.
Is Iran's goal to defeat Trump in 2020? That's a November 2019 story oddly coming up. Which doesn't make it more or less true or false, of course. I'm just noting that fact. If that is Iran's goal, that would be highly inconvenient for the Democrats who have spend the last three years telling us that a foreign country's wishes in our domestic politics rule out Americans having the same preference. We wouldn't want the Democrats colluding with the Iranians, would we?
Iraq's prime minister is quietly working to keep American troops in Iraq despite his public call to talk about the details of withdrawal. He knows Iraq needs to balance Iran's influence. I did say that Iraq is unlikely to choose poorly on this issue. At the most cynical level, corrupt Iraqi politicians know they get a better price when they play one outsider off against another to start a bidding war.
Yes, German-American tensions predate Trump and are in fact reflect much broader allied tensions over German anti-militarism that leads Germany to shirk its alliance defense duties. Honestly, maybe be should take Germany's word that it can't be trusted to have a military. But no, just blame the Bad Orange Man and ignore the reality that NATO needs Germany in order to defend Europe from Russian aggression.
Obama's appeasement of Iran was a bad idea. Of course the question is whether Trump is really committed to containing--or even rolling back--the mullah regime.
Nancy Pelosi's war resolution is a non-binding joke and possibly counter-productive for preventing war with Iran. But even if we are to take it seriously as a statement of the need to get Congress and the people on board a war that American enters, it doesn't take into account the implicit expiration date on that support that Democrats (and sadly, some Republicans) provided for the Iraq War. It wasn't long before the Democrats were actively trying to lose that war.
Europe has a small but enthusiastic pro-jihad Moslems. For all that you may want to point to Christianity centuries ago for a willingness to kill and conquer for their God, you must admit the problem today comes from Islam. The good news is that the terrorism statistics show that the impulse is far less deadly without a strong horse external jihadi group that inspires and trains the raw material of death in the West. The better news for America is that in contrast to Europe we do a pretty good job of assimilating Moslems.
If there is a rift between America and Europe over Iran, rather than wondering what America has done to create this rift, perhaps ask why Europeans are so eager to side with nuclear weapons-seeking Iran run by religious fanatics who hate women, gay people, and Jews with white hot murderous fury.
Much as Harvey Weinstein attempted to recover the good graces of liberals after the sexual abuse scandals popped up around him by pivoting to gun control, China has decided that gun control in America is something they should weigh in on. I guess rejection by Taiwanese voters, rejection by Hong Kong protesters, rejection by Tibetans, and rejection by Uighurs despite a massive system of
In the last data dump I mentioned potential gulag recruiting options for the left. I wasn't kidding.The left's shock troops are scummy, awful, dangerous people. Not that this taints liberals, of course--although I still disagree with them on policy.
The news that Iran fired two missiles at the Ukrainian airliner is not a damning detail. Firing a couple missiles with 90% probability of hitting gets you up to 99% chance of at least one hitting.
You can't get away with an old "problematic" Tweet, but authorities and the media looked away as this gang of child rapists ran wild. Shameful.
Unrest continues in Lebanon.
Burma simmers.
Yeah, Trump should make the two phone calls.
Robotic Sherpas for the Army.
Yes, America wants to map the undersea sea bottom and sea characteristics to help our subs and to battle enemy subs more effectively. So, duh. And let me suggest a reason for the Adriatic. It would make a nice sea bastion defended at the southern end from anti-submarine assets to launch cruise missiles from our subs eastward. Which would put Battlestar Crimea in danger.
Will the end of the New START nuclear arms limitation agreement with Russia mean Russia can "break out" and add hundreds--of--perhaps a thousand--warheads to their arsenal? I'm not sure how many of their existing warheads are effectively nothing more than radioactive chunks of concrete. How could Russia afford to add hundreds of working warheads? Mind you, my suspicions are just based on looking at the general state of Russia's military plus specific problems with their nuclear modernization efforts rather than anything specific I've read that questions the state of Russia's warhead health. As the author of that first link states, noting Russia's ability to cheat under the treaty, "Under New START, the only real limit is what the Russians can afford to do – essentially the same situation as no arms control." I agree.
Of course the Obamas got an Oscar nomination simply for being the Obamas.
Twitter is a small progressive bubble amplified to a wider audience by media reporters who are equally progressive. I know I've mentioned this.
Pelosi named the impeachment managers. If Schiff and Nadler are the public face of the House's impeachment case in the Senate trial--and who thinks their egos will let them play second fiddle?--this will not work out well for Democrats. Even their rabid resistance fans who've been told how strong the case is (for whatever changing charge was the bombshell of the moment) could be disgusted by the failure to achieve the long-held goal.
Luckily Iran was in no position to exploit that particular success in their missile barrage at our troops in Iraq. Exploiting fleeting successes is important. And denying an enemy's ability to exploit such things is important, too.
Moqtada al-Sadr called for protests against America's presence in Iraq. I've long said that Iraq would rue the day we let that three-time insurrectionist live.
Trudeau's logic is impeccable: it's safer to blame their ally America than it is to anger a bunch of murderous fanatical loons who will not take accurately being named at fault lightly. Don't catch Khameini's eye, Justin!
Heh.
Yes, Obama's record on piling on national debt is stunning and Trump isn't even close to that "achievement." But to be fair, Trump is only three years into his presidency. I'm not confident that after 8 that I'll be able to write that sentence. This is a great disappointment to me.
Yes, that's about it. I always figured the Iran nuclear deal was all about moving the date of Iran's first nuclear weapon beyond his term of office and past the statute of limitations on forfeiting Obama's Nobel Peace Prize for his "potential" on combating nuclear proliferation. Oh, and there is this information from that article that I never heard about: In January 2017 the Obama administration gave Iran 130 tons of Uranium. "Why did Obama give the regime enough uranium to make 10 nuclear bombs? To pressure the incoming Trump administration to stick with the nuclear deal." That is an outrage.The nuclear deal was one giant gift to Iran and was never intended to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. It was about preventing anyone from stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
West Virginia legislators introduced a resolution inviting Virginia counties upset by the blackface governor of that state to nullify the 2nd Amendment to join West Virginia. I hadn't thought of that when I suggested in this data dump that those counties might want to form South Virginia. I wonder what the process for doing that would look like?
Despite the Trump tax cuts, federal revenue has continued to rise. Don't blame lower federal taxes for our annual deficits and growing debt, blame both parties that spend like drunken sailors. And blame us for sending them back to Congress year after year, of course. I say stop trying to reform Washington, D.C. when the only solution is to reduce the scope of powers in WDC so more of those spending decisions take place at the state and local level. That will also help on the campaign finance issue by making it less vital to spend what it takes to control WDC. Trying to turn off the money spigot when the stakes are so high doesn't work and just makes people without lawyers criminals because the little people are the only ones unable to figure out loop holes to keep the spigot open.
Turkey says it has begun sending troops to Libya. They already had support personnel there. So what does this mean? More trainers and support people or actual combat troops? I'd be shocked if it's the latter, but who knows what Sultan Erdogan wants as he makes his move. Once the Soviet threat of invading Turkey from the east and west plus from the Black Sea evaporated in 1991, Turkey has had room to revive quasi-imperial ambitions.
Democrats will decide that it is absolutely a good thing that foreign governments hate the same American leader as they do. In 3, 2, 1, go. And not long after that it will be seen as a duty to collude with that foreign government against that American leader. Tip to Instapundit.
This is good news. I mean, nobody wants people to break our laws to come into America ahead of people lawfully standing in line to immigrate to America. And nobody wants our border police to have to overcrowd our detention facilities to hold illegal border crossers until they can be processed under our laws enacted by Congress. Right? Tip to Instapundit.
It's been a month since the House quickly passed impeachment articles against the president, saying the nation is at risk and no delays are acceptable. The House finally sent the articles to the Senate. Perhaps Pelosi didn't want to ruin the holiday season for people. Which apparently means that people really aren't worried about the Trumptatorship that the Resistance sees so clearly. I really seems like they're on crazy pills.
Lovely little continent ya got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it. The mullahs must be so confused. Normally bribery is all that is needed. For Europeans, imagine what the Iranian threats would look like if the mullahs had nuclear missiles?
The Army is denying that it has no role in Asia, countering the Navy drive for more funding at the Army's expense. No doubt sea control is crucial out there. But as I wrote in Military Review, without the Army's core competency included in our plans in the Asia-Pacific region, we can't have a full military posture to deter or defeat enemies.
The Pentagon is setting up a team to look at defeating drones. I think that the battle for the "brown skies" above our forward combat units requires air defense drones, which I advocated in this Army magazine article.
I just don't find it a problem that Trump may have violated the law on sending appropriated aid to Ukraine. We sent it within the fiscal year it was appropriated. And we did have concerns over the new president there. So holding it up to check him out made sense. It's simply not an impeachable offense. I never thought this--as egregious as it was--justified Obama's impeachment. The other violation noted was serious and called for a response, but still, I never thought that impeachment was the proper response. And there were others, too. Is this the standard now? Draconian punishments for anything no matter how small? Pass a web of technical violations and wait for your target to get stuck? I know, I know. It's different now because ... shut up. When I worked for the legislature, I remember calling up a department to get the latest copy of a report that they were supposed to submit on a regular basis. Some legislator had noticed that requirement and wanted to see it. The requirement was in a statute. The man I spoke with basically said, "Oops, we'd better get on that." At no point did I think, "Gotcha! Jail time for you, scofflaw!" That episode led me to compile a booklet about reports required in statute. Let me tell you, that was boring to research, with some reporting party references many executive reorganizations behind in terminology. So Lord knows who was responsible for the report. I have no idea how many of those reports were written on time--or at all. I thought it would make a good companion piece to another legislative entity's reports required in appropriations boiler plate report. And thank God I retired before I had to update it. The database I used to compile it was retired. It was ancient but it was really good if you knew how to use it.
Europe demonizes fossil fuels and then buys the required fossil fuels from demonic suppliers. It makes an odd sort of sense, you must admit.
Owning the night.
The Army plan to replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle hit (another) speed bump. Sigh.
Iran isn't as far away as we think. As we think about Iran's options to escalate their war against us, don't forget the strange relationship between Venezuela and Iran.
The Army is working to extend the range of its artillery, and if really long range weapons are eventually fielded giving divisions and corps that capability the Army won't even need to spend so much effort trying to get the Air Force to provide close air support.
I assume we don't release footage of UFO encounters because they are either American experimental craft or we want our foes to believe they are our experimental craft.
Interesting. What is the nature of the exercise?
I'm well past the point that I ignore the latest media "bombshell" about Trump. Based on the track record, in a week not even Democrats will bring it up.
Regardless of whether they are right or wrong in their objectives, NGOs have gone from rescuers to political actors in many problem-plagued areas.
A big ISIL leader was captured in Iraq. The good news is that Iraqi forces continue to battle jihadis (which is a good thing to remember because Iraq under Saddam supported jihadis). The bad news is how long was that man on the "run" and why did it take elite SWAT forces to nab him? Good luck hanging him, as one guy noted. Execution might be quicker if the Iraqis just fed him some more chicken wings.
Perspective. But by all means, panic if that helps you sleep at night.
So the left hates the Electoral College system because it isn't purely weighted by population. Never mind there are good reasons to retain it. And that's apart from the basic fact that this system was negotiated to get the smaller states to agree to the Constitution. But THIS abomination is just fine? And contrary to the anonymous power grabbers' justification, we do have a system in place to amend the Constitution. If carried out--and I have doubts it could be done--we'd see people on both sides rushing to the new "states" to establish residence before they can vote and eventually it would be "Bleeding Kansas" all over again. But hey, I guess they have to destroy the village to save it. They don't want fairness. They want power.
The silencing mob, it is sad to say, is nothing new. Right now we comfort ourselves that this really isn't a First Amendment issue because government isn't silencing people. And that is what the First Amendment addresses. This is true. But if that view of how to silence people persists, eventually those people will staff our government and courts. And then the mob will have the power of the state behind it. Have a super sparkly day.
North Korea is rapidly building missiles. I've been skeptical of Trump's approach to dealing with North Korea's nuclear threat. I just don't know if we've passed the point of no return when it is too dangerous to try to destroy North Korea's nuclear infrastructure and weapons capabilities. If we are not there yet, Trump's approach may be the only way to halt North Korea unless we count on regime or state collapse. But who knows how long North Korea could teeter along as the Sick Man of Northeast Asia.
For God's sake, just don't give the security forces red shirts in their Space Force uniform.
Between a ROC and a hard place.
North Macedonia's membership is not getting much public discussion. I've certainly mentioned the issue over the years. To be fair to the Greeks, renewed fear of Turkey under Sultan Erdogan is making them a better ally. NATO is worth keeping. And expanding to prevent Russia from exploiting gaps in the frontier (see Georgia and Ukraine). My hope is that Trump's sometimes harsh words are all about leveraging more European defense efforts and that his actions to reinforce and expand NATO are the real indications of his support for NATO.
Hiftar has cut off oil exports, which is an effective response to Turkey's intervention on the side of the Tripoli-based faction. Will Turkey pay the increased costs to back their side and deploy the troops to control the oil export infrastructure?
As it turns out, American troops suffered concussion injuries from Iran's ballistic missile strike. Was it "luck" that nobody was killed prompting an American retaliation that might have led to war? Well, we'd have won that war and it wouldn't have been either nuclear or an invasion. So the idea that the hypothetical war could have been "bloody" and "disastrous" is sheer speculation with little to back it. But while Iran was trying to kill Americans, the missiles were too inaccurate to have confidence in hitting a target and too few to make up for that inaccuracy with volume. The odds were probably with us despite the intent of the mullahs to kill. Is that "luck?"
The U.S. is trying to mediate the dispute over Ethiopia's new Nile dam that Egypt and Sudan have a high interest in regulating in a manner that doesn't hurt them. I mentioned this back in November.
Hahahaha!
I finally had to retire my printer. You may recall my life-extending surgery three years ago. No amount of printer head cleaning or a new cartridge could get it printing again this week. I got a good deal on a new one and I must say I am impressed with what I can do with it. Ink isn't any cheaper, naturally.
Iran's Houthi allies killed more than 100 in a missile attack on a mosque at a military base in Yemen. In that war, activists only get charge war crimes or raise the "proportionality" BS when the Saudis wage war.
Iran changed their mind about sending to Ukraine the flight recorders of the Ukrainian airliner they accidentally shot down.
This is a proxy for demonstrating Iranian ICBM capabilities.
The Hong Kong protests against Chinese tyranny continue to edge toward street battles.
Iraqi protests rebuild in intensity, in a protest against government corruption. It has an anti-Iran tinge to it given Iran's exploitation of the corruption to build influence inside Iraq.
Violent protests against government corruption and failures continue in Lebanon. There is a tinge of anti-Iran sentiment given the role of Iran's proxy Hezbollah in keeping Lebanon fractured and unable to act without Iran's approval.
This, my friends, is brave Resistance to tyranny.
