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Thursday, December 09, 2010

Three Can Play at that Game

As China builds up power projection capabilities that will force US forces to adapt our operations to operate in that threat environment and approach China's coast more cautiously and rely more--at least in the early stages of a conflict--on our own stand-off weapons to strike Chinese targets at sea near Taiwan or on the mainland, Taiwan remains free to pick up the slack.

If this isn't just a press release and reflects actual hardware being deployed, this will cause China headaches:

"Mass production of indigenous weapons like the ones under the codenames of 'Chichun' (Lance Hawk) and 'Chuifeng' (Chasing Wind) is very smooth," Deputy Defence Minister Chao Shih-chang told parliament Wednesday. ...

The Chichun project refers to the Hsiungfeng 2E cruise missile, Taiwan's answer to the US-made Tomahawk. Chuifeng is project to develop the island's long-anticipated supersonic anti-ship missile. ...

The cruise missiles could be launched from land or sea, and would be capable of hitting airports and missile bases in southeast China, as well as cities such as Shanghai and Hong Kong, local media said.

These weapons will allow Taiwan to strike Chinese ships at sea (if they can be identified and tracked) as well as hit ports and airports where Chinese invasion forces would stage.

It also gives Taiwan the ability to escalate to hitting civilian targets if Chinese planes and missiles hit Taiwanese civilian targets.

Anything that holds off the Chinese and keeps them from getting ashore on Taiwan in strength too great to be ejected by Taiwanese ground forces (because even containing a Chinese beachhead that allows China to gain a foothold on Taiwan could constitute a defeat for Taiwan) will buy time for our forces to batter our way through whatever China throws in our path to slow us down.

Of course, this just gives China more incentive to build up their own missile forces to hit Taiwan hard in the first minutes of war. On the other hand, given how worried Taiwanese are about this Chinese missile arsenal pointed at them, forcing China to decline to reduce their missile force will be useful in making sure Taiwan is not lulled into a false sense of security by China's charm offensive.

Taiwan had best make sure these new missiles are mass-produced and that they are hardened to withstand an early volley of China's missiles.