Progress

A visual of global progress over 200 years regarding longevity and income per person:



What struck me is that while Europe and America led the way, with Asia and the rest of the Americas following, the journeys to the upper right corner took different paths. Notice that the initial surge away from the lower left corner of low income and low life span took place along the income line. The surge in life span followed the surge in income.

By contrast, the post-World War II movement of Asia and the rest of the Americas took the path of increasing life spans before personal income began to accelerate to catch up with the early industrializers.

And even sub-Sahara Africa, whose income has lagged since World War II, participated in the increase in life span.

For all those who speak of how evil the Europeans were in colonizing and exploiting the Third World, those nations clearly benefited from the increase in health knowledge that the European-centered industrial revolution created. Even Africa, still mired in poverty, has seen incredible advances in life span. Like most things, the impact of Europe on the Third World is far more complicated than just saying the Europeans were evil colonialists.

Further, China's recent progress doesn't seem as amazing when you see that they took part in a global trend. What would have been amazing is if they had remained stuck in low income, which they would have done if strict communism in the economic sphere had continued.

I just don't bet against mankind. Even when we face crises, we kept moving toward the upper left corner of health and prosperity.

UPDATE: So do we all really converge at the upper right? That only makes sense if our health and wealth capabilities remain static since early adopters will see their rate of progress slow and allow late adopters to catch up within the current template of progress.

Or does some new revolution (and no, I highly doubt it will be "green" technologies) allow some countries to take off again from the baseline of the upper right (which becomes the new lower left) and lead the way? Or could some calamity--as the professor shows for the period around World War I and which you can see China experience during what I assume is the Mao period of cultural revolution and great leap forward--pull back a whole grouping?