There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.
Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike.
I agree that Israel hammered Hizbollah quite badly. I agree that the UN is not about to make the Israeli operational victory a strategic victory by actually disarming Hizbollah. Nor did the war mean that Israel lost its military edge over its potential Arab opponents. Israel exposed their tactical deficiencies and I think Israel will correct them. And I agree that round two is inevitable.
What I wonder is if renewed fighting in Lebanon and probably Gaza is part of a larger Iranian engineered offensive. And whether the offensive is directed at us and not Israel. What is the scope of Iranian ambitions?
Interestingly enough, if the Iranians and their Arab allies think Israel is a paper tiger, then they will strike at Israel trying to repeat the Hizbollah "victory" last summer. And if they bring in Israel, Iran will lose their Syrian ally. If we can hold our nerve after the first blow, we could end up with a considerable strategic victory in the region.
