Ukraine can't afford to bounce the rubble against aerial threats to marginally increase interception success.
This comment on how Ukraine has adapted to a Patriot missile shortage is interesting:
The Patriot unit commander, identified as Oleksandr in a video released over the weekend by the Ukrainian military's Air Command West, said that while standard air defense doctrine calls for firing between two and four interceptors at each incoming Russian cruise or ballistic missile, his forces are launching just one per threat amid strained stockpiles.
Firing multiple Patriots increases the odds of hitting. If you have an 80% chance of hitting with one missile fired, you have a 96% chance of hitting the target with two. A third gets you over 99%. In a situation where you have a very valuable target to protect and plenty of missiles (perhaps because the fight is a single battle rather than a war), it makes sense to launch even three. The value of the saved target far outweighs the cost of the "wasted" defensive missiles.
But if you have insufficient missiles and lots of targets (but none absolutely critical) to defend, it is better to fire three missiles at three separate incoming missiles to have a chance of destroying three incoming missiles. That is superior to a near-guarantee of one hit while watching two other incoming missiles hit your assets.
When ammo runs low, you make do and set priorities.
Mind you, if the incoming missile is targeting the Patriot system itself, light up the skies, eh?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: Image from the article.
