I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Distributed Artillery
In case you missed it on Substack: The Russian-Chinese Arctic Front
In case you missed it on Substack: Could Ukraine Wage Commerce Raiding Against Russia?
In case you missed it on Substack: Europeans Had a Nice Run
This would be unnecessary if Hamas disarmed: “Israel continues to back Gazan militias over the Yellow Line to fight Hamas in areas under the terrorist group’s control[.]” The war isn’t over. It’s just different.
The Crow electronic warfare system: “A Spanish fighter wing deployed to the Baltics for air patrol missions alongside anti-drone defenses for the first time[.]”
War: “A failed December effort to bring down parts of Poland’s energy grid was the work of Russian government hackers[.]”
Offered with no comment: “Germany and Italy are set to expand defence and economic cooperation[.]”
Oh, forgot to link the new 2026 national defense strategy. I’ll eventually write about it.
Yes, many allies (mostly Britain and Canada) bled at America’s side in Afghanistan. Also true is most NATO countries didn’t let their troops fight—but they performed needed duties. And, until last year, NATO countries were mad that America chose to lose that war. Via Instapundit.
The goal of avoiding another Task Force Smith in the Army’s first battle is strong. But don’t forget winning the rest of the war if it drags on.
Well that’s boring: “A recent $610 million order placed by Denmark for air surveillance radars to be stationed across Danish territory was sole-sourced to U.S. defense giant Lockheed Martin[.]”
Well: “NATO is ready to engage in a potential Arctic mission, but hasn’t started planning one as there has been no political guidance to do so[.]” Having an American POLARCOM would help.
Huh: “Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is convening a rare meeting of all of the top military leaders from the 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere.”
Pity it was discovered—unless we set him up for a fall: “China’s senior-most general is accused of leaking information about the country’s nuclear-weapons program to the U.S. and accepting bribes for official acts[.]”
Ukrainian suicide drone operators are now hitting Russian infantry at ranges short enough for heavy weapons direct fire. That’s a problem with a porous front line.
Fifteen years after NATO conducted a drive-by shooting of Libya’s dictator, Khadaffi, after which America stayed out because Iraq and Afghanistan “proved” America’s presence prevented locals from working out their problems, different foreigners maintain the chaos in Libya.
The Air Force announced ““Air Expeditionary Wing 2.0.”
Is NORAD-Plus needed for multiple threats coming south through the Arctic? A U.S. POLARCOM could handle fighting in the Arctic.
Iran issued a warning order to the Houthi should America attack Iran.
China’s threat to the Arctic. Which seems futile given the need to go past the G-I-UK Gap or Bering Strait to use the region—unless China owns or dominates huge chunks of Russia from their border to the Arctic Sea. Or is it all about striking America?
I don’t mock China for military purges. I worry purges will ultimately make China’s military more effective. Fingers crossed it just provides new corrupt leadership.
Didn’t realize Russians were still there: “Russia is withdrawing forces from an airport in northeastern Syria[.]”
A warning that addresses my speculation that the fall of the mullah regime in Iran may not be a counter-revolution as much as it could be the disintegration of a rump Persian Empire.
Ukraine may have a working AI suicide drone. No word on the cost, so we shall see how many can be produced. Also, what did I say about the trajectory of FPV suicide drones back in 2024? Nothing really new under the sun.
TARGET: Islamic State: “The US will increase materiel deliveries and intelligence sharing with Nigeria[.]”
Ukraine will get a security guarantee from America. Add in weapons sales, intelligence-sharing, economic investment in the Donbas that is an economic trip wire, more sanctions, and shadow tanker seizures. The idea America now sides with Putin is absurd.
Myanmar always seems like it is at a tipping point for something worse than what it is at the moment.
Europeans should be able to defeat Russia. You must admit, I called it a week before the invasion when I said Putin risked exposing the true state of his military by invading Ukraine.
Germany should call a suicide hotline, or something. Henry Morgenthau Jr. was unavailable for comment. Tip to Instapundit.
Standing up: “A top Pentagon official praised South Korea as a model ally ready to take greater responsibility for its own security after a new US defense strategy signaled a reduction in American military support to deter North Korea from aggression.” This shift is not new.
Experts: “Unmanned vehicles that can withstand harsh weather for prolonged periods at sea are critical to maintain NATO’s strategic dominance in the Arctic[.]” Well, “can withstand harsh weather” does a lot of work in that advice.
Rough neighborhood: “Estonia is gearing up to acquire a missile defense system, participating in broader efforts by the Baltic States to boost investments in expanding their air-defense network.”
Regime realignment falters as fear of the near surpasses fear of the far: “Venezuela’s acting president Delcy RodrÃguez said Sunday she has had ‘enough’ of Washington’s orders[.]” Well that’s awkward. We’ll see how it goes. What option is left?
Welcome to the Indian Ocean: “India publicly unveiled what it claims to be its first long-range [anti-ship] hypersonic missile today during a display of military power at the country’s 77th Republic Day parade[.]”
Exploiting the M1E3: “The U.S. Army is also planning to ensure survivability and lethality by massively adjusting its tactics and maneuver formations to align with a new generation of weapons and networking technologies.”
Army still desperately seeking precision grenade launcher. This is an alternative to squad-level strike drones that turn squads into mini-air forces.
Good: “The U.S. defense industrial base needs a mobilization akin to the heights of the world wars and the Cold War, according to the Pentagon’s new strategy, as the Trump administration prepares to greatly increase defense spending.” First things first.
Indeed: “the U.S. military must be prepared to conduct combat operations directly from the American homeland as adversaries gain the ability to strike the United States itself.” Consider this part of the “Well, Duh” files.
True: “Today the Arctic is the free world's frontier, and Canada can keep it safe only by treating America as a partner, not a piggy bank.” All I ask is for Canada not to stink on ice. And we need to learn a lot, too.
European rearmament is a fraud. For the European Union, all goes according to plan.
It is a mistake to draw “fresh relevance” about this 1930 American plan for today’s kerfuffle. War Plan RED used Britain as a planning standard for a war in the Atlantic, so of course invading Canada was considered. Breathe, people.
NATO chief to EU parliament: “If anyone thinks here again that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming. You can’t. We can’t. We need each other.” The EU parliament doesn’t consider defense its priority.
A shift to drone fighting meant no lull in fighting this winter? There hasn’t been a noticeable lull in any winter of this war.
I’m not sure if this description of the law for use of early small wars undermines or supports my view on the issue of authority to initiate military action. Something to consider.
China (and the rest of East Asia) has a looming demographic cliff. I’ve been all over China’s problem for a long time.
But what can they do? “All unauthorized drone flights in the vicinity of U.S. military installations have been classed as a surveillance threat in updated guidance[.]”
The proper response is probably a class action suit by families of those killed by drugs and drug gang violence. Also, does the form to sue the U.S. include name, phone number, and grid coordinates?
Sh*t got real: “The surface force will net a total of seven Littoral Combat Ships after the Navy shelved plans to decommission the hulls ahead of their expected service lives, USNI News has learned.”
China makes another island base: “Satellite imagery appears to show China is set to reclaim land on another reef in the South China Sea for yet another military base.” Turning a sea feature into an island does not create territorial waters (or EEZs) around it.
To the shock of nobody: “The National Defense Strategy names ‘key terrain’ within the hemisphere — including Greenland and the Arctic, the Panama Canal, and the ‘Gulf of America’ — as fundamental to U.S. security.”
I don’t doubt China’s military isn’t as shiny as it looks: “Xi Jinping proclaims his military is ready for combat. Chinese military publications feature many articles that cast doubt on the combat readiness of Chinese forces.” I just worry it is good enough for party work.
A building block of national power. But can a protected industry reduce costs with efficiency and innovation? Tip to Instapundit.
More B-21s or B-21s produced faster?
Looking for threats looking at you.
Gulp. Although to be fair, it actually is rocket science.
Yes, it does seem if American forces are gathering and practicing to hit Iran’s mullah’s for slaughtering perhaps tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. Whether this is an attempt to destabilize the mullahs or just punish them is unclear. Targets hit should answer that.
Americans will work closely with Taiwan’s long-range missile units to enable them to hit China’s industrial targets. Honestly, that sounds like helping Taiwan inflict damage on China before China conquers Taiwan.
The Art of the Greenland Deal requires a deal that benefits America, Greenland, Denmark, and NATO. And I do assume that is the intent despite the rhetorical fireworks.
How will America react to a EU-India trade deal?
Rather than being deterred by the May 2025 clashes, India and Pakistan each think they won the limited conflict. To be fair, even losing a limited conflict isn’t discouraging for long.
Could new unsinkable metal tubes make ships unsinkable? Maybe. But mission kills don’t require sinking. Tip to Instapundit.
The people in charge of the “Doomsday Clock” are partisan morons. Somehow, knocking back Iran’s drive for nukes didn’t set the clock back at all. Tip to Instapundit.
That’s a problem for the mullahs: “The Iranian regime’s ongoing securitization measures, which include a costly and prolonged internet shutdown, are accelerating Iran’s economic collapse.” Killing dissidents may just be angering survivors and creating more dissidents.
Integrating small UAVs into Army tank-led combined arms operations.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE won’t let America us their air space to attack Iran. Frankly, they’d rather have a weak non-nuclear Iran as America’s enemy to incentivize America to help them. That beats having a stronger Iran friendly to America as an alternative partner.
The National Rally party that could win the next French election is partly pro-Russia. To be fair, France has long reached out to Russia to balance Germany. Hell, France effectively did that in the Cold War by checking out of NATO when America was parked in West Germany.
Sh*t got real: “Passenger flights between Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, and cities in the northern Tigray region have been cancelled amid fears of a return to conflict, with reports of clashes in one area.”
Israel wants Gazans leaving Gaza to outnumber those coming in.
Russia’s fleet would be worn out in short order: “Russia hints it will deploy Navy to protect ‘shadow fleet’[.]” Tip to OPFOR Journal.
I’d want American submarines and land-based aircraft to provide nearly all of the offensive missile power to strike Iranian targets so that the surface warships can focus on defending the carrier.
China illegally seized the shoal long ago: “An American destroyer joined Philippine forces near Scarborough Shoal for a joint patrol following the recent departure of the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) from the Western Pacific.”
That was a pointless insult to an ally. Unless there is more to this story that was left out.
More on the American military build up in CENTCOM. Israel is already there, of course.
Germany works on the SeaSpider anti-torpedo torpedo [VIDEO]. This has proven to be a Unicorn thus far. Could we exploit that ship defense weakness?
An American paratrooper battalion conducted a “mass” air drop exercise. I’m not sure how plausible such operations are over a modern battlefield.
The Navy might look a refueling VLS cells at sea with the AD(X) destroyer tender. I suspect this alternative would be more effective.
A2/AD is not new: “While kamikaze attacks are by far the best-remembered of Japan’s sea-denial capabilities, Tokyo also built thousands of shinyo (explosive motorboats), fielded hundreds of kaiten (human-guided torpedoes), and trained legions of frogmen as fukuryu (explosive human mines).”
Perhaps Iran is out of “good options”. But that doesn’t mean Iran won’t use a suicidal bad option that harms us and others, too. I worry that Iran could—through luck, planning, or external help—prove that super carriers are big targets.
Trump is squeezing Russia. This should tell you that Trump isn’t pro-Putin. As I’ve long said, Trump is trying to coax a twitchy (nuclear-armed) squirrel to take the offered cracker of actual peace in Ukraine. And hopefully more.
Pakistan spent years backing the Taliban in Afghanistan even as Pakistan allowed America to sustain its campaign in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory. Sadly for Pakistan, it got what it wanted. There are no “tame” Islamists.
Given that America gets attacked for past slavery and that too many Americans think it was a uniquely American evil (although sometimes Britain gets tossed in), this history lesson of the broader history is needed. Tip to Instapundit.
Is Ukraine failing to keep its eye on the ball? “If Russia's energy infrastructure has a weak spot, a pressure point Kyiv could hit again and again until something systemic cracks, either they haven't found it, or have chosen poorly not to go after it.”
The Palestinian Authority lied and proves there are no tame Islamists. Tip to Instapundit.
The Doomsday Clock is more stupider than I thunk because it’s now “a grand narrative engine, bundling nuclear weapons, climate change, biotechnology, misinformation, authoritarianism — and now AI — into a single comprehensive countdown to humanity’s end.” Via Instapundit.
Is it just me or does some analysis of the unclassified version of the national defense strategy seem like people searching the document for their favorite subject (like “technology”) and assuming no or insufficient mentions mean the Pentagon is unaware of that aspect of defense?
The “Donroe Doctrine” helps those who help themselves.
Xi’s night of the long knives?
China seems happy to keep Russia flailing in Ukraine: “[China] continues to provide critical support to Russia’s weapons production, including Oreshnik missiles and Shahed long-range drones.”
The Army is turning a Security Force Assistance Brigade that trains allied units into a jungle warfare expertise and training brigade. Just going to note jungles are not restricted to the Western Hemisphere.
The second Ford-class carrier is now at sea for testing.
A small Army “detachment” that includes tanks will deploy to Romania. A company-sized team? That’s the smallest level that cross-attachment makes sense, no?
Germany proposed a plan where the biggest states in the EU are more equal than others.
The U.S. will quadruple THAAD missile production.
America and Europe are falling behind China and Russia in the Arctic. Uh oh.
A shortage of defensive missiles complicates action against Iran. This destabilizes things as America has incentive to strike first and Iran knows it may need to use their missiles first or lose them. Hello pucker factor …
Is Xi’s military purge a sign he is tired of being told his military is not ready for war? If so, he may get leaders willing to tell him the PLA is ready. Whether it is or not.
Thoughts on the proposed Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia alliance. If Iran collapses, they may not want a scramble for Iranian territory to go beyond throwing elbows, eh?
Is political Islamism waning? Waves of jihadi fury have waxed and waned in the past. Perhaps the War on Terror held the line long enough (and killed enough jihadis) to move that process along.
The mullahs really want nukes: “Recent US intelligence found that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities ‘deeper underground,’ according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence speaking to CNN on January 29.”
Better late than never: “The European Union designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization on January 29.”
Japan’s Mogami-class multi-mission frigate.
America adds forces to bases near Iran, including Duqm in Oman. Twelve years ago I noted that location’s advantages over Persian Gulf bases when dealing with Iran. The UK uses that base, too.
This article on a narrow replacement for NATO suffers from the flawed foundation of claiming America is “Russophilic.” That is an insane take 180 degrees from reality. But on a narrow NATO supplement …
I certainly hope the days of the mullah regime in Iran are numbered. But can American strikes and dissident action be coordinated to cut down the number?
Seeing photographs of American fighter jets sitting wing tip to wing tip in the open on airfield tarmacs in the Middle East just skyrockets my pucker factor. This feels like hubris.
Reports on Saturday of small explosions in various Iranian cities.
I wonder if part of a military operation against Iran will involve Saudi Arabia and the UAE recovering the Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands that Iran seized in 1971 from the UAE?
South Korea builds it own jet fighter--with their own engine planned for the next decade.
China has burrowing into Latin America—and plundering offshore fish stocks.
