Russia's consistently claims that they have more territorial ambitions and that their victory is inevitable because Russia can take the battlefield punishment as long as it takes. One of the problems of this framing of the war is that it compels Russia to keep attacking to "prove" their dual claims are correct. What could possibly go wrong?
The war goes on. Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad look like they could fall to the Russians soon. It is unclear if any Ukrainian troops could be trapped in the narrow salient. Russia has been trying to take Pokrovsk for a long time. A slow advance will eventually take everything, I suppose. As long as the Russians are willing to die in just astounding numbers for Putin. Go figure.
Are Russian leaders living in a fantasy world or is the West?
Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine, stating that Russia has the strategic initiative along the thousand kilometers long front line. Putin believes his forces are on the verge of victory and that the Ukrainians need to realize what is happening in the combat zone. Other Russian leaders insist that if Ukraine does not accept the Russian view of the situation and make peace on Russian terms, they would suffer much heavier losses. This attitude is based on the Russian belief that NATO nations will eventually tire of pouring all the military and economic aid into Ukraine. That is not happening and many Russian leaders and Russians in general prefer to believe that eventually Russia will have the edge in military power.
Yet despite the war dragging on for 44 months, the prediction born in the pre-war crisis era lingers: Ukraine is doomed to fall under the Russian bulldozer.
Time has not ended that prediction. Ukraine still resists and has shown it can go on offense; it has regained use of the Black Sea and seemingly secured Odessa; and Ukraine is expanding its aerial strategic warfare on Russia's logistics foundation to wage the war. Sure, the theory goes, Ukraine has shocked the world (it didn't shock me). But Russia's weight of numbers will be decisive at any moment now.
That theory could be right. But it could go the other way.
But for now, Russia is compelled to continue their offensives because an army on the verge of winning can't stop attacking. I mean, that's what Putin apparently believes:
In a video released by the Kremlin on Sunday, Putin, wearing military uniform, said that the armed forces had achieved numerous successes in the war against Ukraine and confirmed the successful test of the long-range, nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile. The meeting took place at a command centre at an undisclosed location.
Oh, and Putin waves around his latest missile to frighten the West. As he does. Or to reassure his people of Russia's power despite the long war. Who knows what is most important to him.
Who knows what everybody in that meeting believes. But personal safety requires everyone to act like they believe it.
Can Russia take advantage of cloud cover to nullify Ukrainian FPV drones? Can Russia overcome mud to exploit its carefully accumulated armored vehicles? Or will Ukrainian defense problems be simplified by knowing Russian armor is restricted to paved roads?
Will Russia's commitment to validating their claims be their undoing?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
