Can Russia survive peace? Of course, to ask that question is to assume that Russia can survive more war.
The war goes on. Same death and destruction. New week. Although I will say that it feels like Ukraine is counter-attacking on a small scale more frequently the last few weeks. And it seems like Russian advances are slowing down. I don't know if this is is a new trend that will expand or just a blip.
Putin is afraid of demobilizing his soldiers if peace breaks out:
The Kremlin is intensifying a campaign launched in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society and an influx of alienated veterans in Russia likely because it perceives the demobilization of Russian veterans as a potential threat to regime stability.
I've noted the problem of proliferating armed forces in Russia. And I've noted the risk of a new Time of Troubles in Russia. Can Russia really go on as it is?
Of course, if Putin uses a peace deal that ends the farcical portrayal of NATO as a threat to Russian territorial integrity in order to shift focus and troops to Central Asia and the Far East, he could avoid that problem. Far from Moscow, those troops could deter China from bullying Russia for concessions. Or ejecting Russian influence from Central Asia or physically taking Far East territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.
But Russia can never be in NATO, even if Russia becomes a democracy. If NATO members have trouble thinking it should worry about the Dnipro River, those members aren't going to defend the Amur River.
UPDATE (Monday): Russia seems to fear a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal as a de facto American trip wire in the east.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Zelensky is getting the signal that he needs to be publicly on board a diplomatic path a little bit faster:
Ukraine said on Tuesday it would do all it can to maintain its ties with the United States, after President Donald Trump paused military aid to Kyiv in the most dramatic step yet in his pivot towards closer ties with Russia.
The military aid is paused and not ended. I'm assuming intelligence sharing and other such things continue during the pause.
But I hope the military aid suspension is brief so that Ukrainian troops on the front aren't affected. Memories of the 2021 Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle may not have faded enough.
In a related item, I heard or read--I can't remember where, but the important thing is that the observation isn't originally mine--that Russians are upset with the seemingly friendly Russia-America vibe. After decades of propaganda about the faux America threat through NATO, having the Russian government treat America like a friend aligned with Russia is causing great dissonance.
How will that affect Russian troops supposedly fighting and dying to save Russia from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil?
UPDATE (Tuesday): One reason I think the breach between Trump and Zelensky will be healed is that the entire televised meeting was 90+% amiable. Those panicking seem to have only watched four minutes of mutual anger. I admit that the four minutes were disconcerting to me. I said so last week.
But the public display of mutual anger and frustration was triggered by Zelensky. Perhaps too used to applause wherever he goes in the West, he failed to act like a man whose country needs America desperately. He instead--for those disastrous few minutes--acted like a rock star signing autographs and taking selfies for fans. Adjust fast, President Zelensky.
UPDATE (Tuesday): I don't think we should pressure Zelensky into resigning to promote peace talks. Maybe do Putin first.
Didn't we learn the lesson of seeking victory through destabilizing regime change in friendly Saigon during the Vietnam War?
UPDATE (Wednesday): Zelensky publicly stated his willingness to work for peace with Trump; and his goal of signing the rare earths mining deal with America.
This is hardly a shock, notwithstanding the hyperventilating. Nor was timing it to coincide with the president's speech to a joint session of Congress.
And I'm sure Zelesnky understands that speaking about how peace must not be a ceasefire that simply gives Putin a chance to reload should be done in private talks.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Hopefully the American military aid pause is brief now that Zelesnky is inside the tent pissing out rather than the reverse.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Welp, should not have assumed continuing intelligence sharing during the military aid pause. Via Instapundit.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Huh:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly developing a plan to partially demobilize a limited number of mobilized personnel no earlier than July 2025, likely to address growing societal backlash over the lack of rotations and demobilization of Russian mobilized troops for over two years.
Well that's interesting.
UPDATE (Friday): Russia states it will make zero concession in peace talks. They want to win. If their ground forces can't provide it on the battlefield, they hope Western diplomats will. Russians bluff hard.
UPDATE (Saturday): Russia made a significant advance through Ukrainian positions in their Kursk salient, threatening--if expanded--to cut off the salient.
I often see Russian advances yet over the last year the Ukrainians seem unable to counter-attack to punish the Russians for sticking their head in what should be a kill sack.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
