Hamas gave Israel what they its leaders wanted to believe about Hamas before the October 7, 2023 murder and rape invasion.
Hamas executed a sophisticated military deception campaign in support of the October 7 attacks, which contributed to the lack of Israeli preparedness for the attack. This deception effort was likely explicitly designed to exploit pre-existing Israeli biases toward believing Israel had deterred Hamas. The US military defines military deception as actions taken to deliberately mislead adversary decisionmakers to contribute to the accomplishment of the mission. The New York Times reported that Hamas deliberately avoided major engagements with Israel from 2021 to 2023 and conserved ammunition as a part of a deception campaign that would give the impression that Israeli military might had deterred Hamas. Top Israeli officials, including the prime minister, believed that Israel had deterred Hamas. Hamas’ decision to purposefully give the impression it was deterred would have reinforced these biases.
Remember, our enemies may be some flavor of evil--but they aren't stupid. Or at least not more stupid than we are.
I've long noted that real surprise takes place in the minds of the enemy who cherry pick what information is relevant to support their preexisting assessment. The perhaps small minority that disagrees with the consensus may not be right often, but when correct the resulting disaster after not paying attention to them could be unbearably awful. Be wary when your well-armed enemy who vows to murder you suddenly seems happy, reasonable, and friendly.
So at least listen to the analysts who don't drink the Koolaid. And ask more questions and take a couple precautions as insurance.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.