How much of China's naval build up is part of a mindless five-year plan rather than actual capabilities?
Satellite imagery reveals the recent major expansions that have made China’s shipbuilding infrastructure the most robust in the world. Even the commercial vessels built alongside the warships in these yards are being constructed to military specifications, including the ability to carry troops and vehicles during conflict. ...
China’s shipbuilding expansion should be a wake-up call. The facilities needed to churn out advanced warships can’t be built overnight. If a conflict arises in the Pacific, the United States would be forced to fight with the ships it has.
China can build more ships in a month than American shipyards can build in a year. That seems to grossly under-estimate China's capacity. Perhaps it is more accurate to say China is currently building at that ratio? But China could build more if it chose to?
And worse, repairing battle damage will be daunting for America, meaning that a mission kill is as good as sinking a ship. In a long war, how will losses be replaced?
But we've heard that the new car smell of the PLA Navy conceals figurative rust:
China has a problem that makes their shiny new modernized military less than what it seems. And it isn't just the lack of experience in waging war with all their new stuff.
No, the main problem for China is corruption that makes their military less effective than it seems:
Corruption in the Chinese military has been a problem for thousands of years but the current government is making a major, but largely ineffective, effort to curb these bad practices.That means China isn't as formidable a foe as paper comparisons would indicate. That's good for us.
And as even recent reports claim, it hasn't been fixed, apparently. But it might be good enough.
Is the PLAN a paper tiger reflecting mindless plans that emphasize pumping out ships that look great for the reporting entity on reports sent up the chain of command without the support to effectively operate them? Or is it a skeleton that will be fleshed out in the coming decade?
UPDATE: This is comforting:
In 2023 Chinese leader President Xi Jinping made the awful discovery that his navy and air force had miniscule stocks of spare parts. This alone made a Taiwan invasion impossible. In addition, the lack of spare parts made it impossible to sustain months of combat against Taiwanese holdouts and American reinforcements that would follow landings on Taiwan.
Can Xi correct enough of the hollowness to work long enough?
UPDATE: Commander Salamander has related thoughts.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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