China's ability to project power is a new danger in the western Pacific. America's friends have a shared vision of resisting Chinese aggression. And entangling webs of mutual obligation mean that if deterrence fails, a war China initiates against even a small victim will quickly expand.
Japan is looking for friends in a more dangerous world:
In its annual defense white paper released on Friday, Japan’s Ministry of Defense warned that the possibility of a situation similar to Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine occurring in the Indo-Pacific. Japan also again singling out China, North Korea and Russia as threats to Japan and the region.
Potential victims if Chinese aggression in Asia are banding together:
Japan and the Philippines signed a key defense pact Monday allowing the Japan and the Philippines signed a key defense pact Monday allowing the deployment of Japanese forces for joint drills in the Southeast Asian nation that came under brutal Japanese occupation in World War II but is now building an alliance with Tokyo as both face an increasingly assertive China.
The Reciprocal Access Agreement, which similarly allows Filipino forces to enter Japan for joint combat training, was signed by Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa ...
The defense pact with the Philippines, which includes live-fire drills, is the first to be forged by Japan in Asia. Japan signed similar accords with Australia in 2022 and with Britain in 2023.
Defense chief Austin said we are moving beyond a hub-and-spoke model in Asia to "a set of overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions propelled by a shared vision and a shared sense of mutual obligation." Still hub and spoke. But the spokes to America are now mini-hubs--but not an Asian NATO.
America warned China to ease off in the face of such initiatives:
The United States on Friday renewed its call on China to stop its aggressive actions in the South China Sea, saying a broader web of security alliances has emerged to preserve the rule of law in the disputed waters.
In July 2024, the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) will be held in Tokyo. The PALM summits have been bringing together Japan and the Pacific Island countries (PICs) on a triennial basis since 1997. On this occasion, Japan might propose a security cooperation agreement to the countries of the region.
The web of overlapping and complementary defense ties is both a danger and an asset for America.
The asset is that China can't count on cutting a weak spoke away from the herd. The mini-hubs see reason to fight together regardless of what America does. This should serve to deter China.
This is a danger to America because while we might decide a particular ally's survival isn't that important to us--as we did with Afghanistan in 2021--with multiple allies fighting China, America's room to maneuver is lowered and pushes America to intervene even if we are reluctant for good or bad reasons.
On the bright side, the web makes it more likely that our allies will join the fight to stop China, making it more likely we'd defeat China if Peking rolls the dice.
But we can't rest on the old structure because the threat is much greater than what we've had to cope with when we faced limited Chinese power with less ability to project power very far or very broadly.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
