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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Battlestar Crimea Gets Frakked Up

Russia finds it can't defend its assets in Crimea. This has to really crank Putin's shaft considering he viewed Crimea as a vital power projection asset.

If it wasn't part of a cruel war of conquest that is bleeding Ukraine (even as Russia bleeds more), this would be kind of funny:

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and has used its Sevastopol Naval Base as the primary headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet.

But Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a Facebook post earlier this week that Russia had pulled its last Black Sea Fleet warship out of Crimea. ...

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet, using aerial drones, sea drones, and anti-ship missiles.

With a lunge for Odessa as part of its invasion, Putin clearly hoped to be the master of the Black Sea by conquering Ukraine.

That Crimea isn't usable to gain complete control of the Black Sea is 180 degrees opposite of what Putin thought he conquered and annexed in 2014--what I called Battlestar Crimea:

Here we go:

Based on recent site observations by Reuters, accounts from locals, media reports and official Russian data, Moscow has reanimated multiple Soviet-built facilities in [Russian-occupied Crimea], built new bases and stationed soldiers there.
Crimea as a base area makes sense to project power farther afield than the Black Sea:
Russian newspaper Izvestiya quoted a military source in May as saying Moscow will restore the Dnepr station so it can "detect launches of ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles from the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea area."

I've noted that Russian intervention in Syria might not have been justified without Russia's conquest of Crimea. Crimea makes the most sense as a Russian base to project power into the eastern Mediterranean Sea to extend Russia's defensive perimeter to that region. And Syria is the most likely place for Russia to base forces near that area (unless Russia completely flips Turkey or Greece).

Oh the glories of power projection that Putin anticipated! Syria was just the start in his mind, no doubt. 

But if Russia wins the Winter War of 2022, Putin's original vision will be restored. 

Let's defeat Russia now before it gets more difficult to do so.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.