Europe has a dilemma. It doesn't want to fall to Russian aggression.
But it doesn't want to be strong enough that America knows it can stay
out of a war and let Europeans alone pay the price for what is in
America's interest, too--a free, allied Europe.
The U.S. fought World War II and the Cold War to prevent Europe from being overrun and controlled by a single power. The inherent resources of Europe pose a potential threat. President Woodrow Wilson saw this. So did Franklin Roosevelt, and so did the various presidents who presided during the Cold War. Blocking Germany and Russia have long been fundamental principles of U.S. foreign policy – not exclusively for its own benefit but fundamentally in pursuit of its own interests.
The war in Ukraine is the continuation of a consistent U.S. foreign policy going back to the beginning of the last century. But what happens in Ukraine will affect what happens in the rest of Europe. The two world wars cost more than they might have if the U.S. had acted sooner. The question now is whether the U.S. confronts Russia – which is pursuing its own interests, as all nations do – sooner or later. The answer to that question necessarily involves Europe. The Cold War was a true alliance. This war is hard to make out on that score. The truth is Europe has the most at stake and needs to put up most of the funding and support for Ukraine.
And in the Cold War when the Russians set on the Elbe River in the middle of Germany, Europeans had incentive to skimp on defense ... somewhat ... so America was unsure enough about conventional defense capabilities that it would have to consider strategic nuclear weapons to prevent Russia from conquering Western Europe. That would prevent a "tactical" nuclear war--or even "just" a conventional war--fought in Europe where America and Russia might tacitly limit the war to spare their own homelands.
Similar worries affect European defense spending debates today. Europeans don't want to be so weak that America walks away in disgust. But they also don't want to be so strong that America walks away confident Europeans can take care of themselves should Russia lunge west--or at least allow America the luxury to intervene late as it did in 1917 and 1941.
America doesn't want Europe controlled by a hostile power. And America doesn't want to fight to prevent Europe from being conquered. To minimize our risks and costs, America should keep Russia as far east as possible until Russians stop imagining NATO is a military threat.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
